Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page. Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 38-44 | Units: -7.65 | ROI: -9.55%
There are no best bets as of this morning. I am waiting to see what the injury report for Oklahoma City looks like, and if it is clean then the Thunder will be on my card tonight.
The Rest
New Orleans’ defense has begun to slip recently, and it is the culprit behind the Pelicans’ most recent stretch of inconsistent results. Since losing Zion Williamson to injury New Orleans has averaged 117.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, but opponents have put up 117.5 which has led to a negative net rating and 2-5 SU and ATS record in their last seven. One of the key components to the Pelicans’ offense, even without Williamson on the floor, is its offensive rebounding. New Orleans is seventh in offensive rebounding rate (29.2%) and leads the league in putback points per 100 misses (24.8). Detroit would be able to combat that with its own starting frontcourt, but it will not be available tonight. Rookie Jalen Duren is still out with an ankle injury, and Isaiah Stewart is questionable.
Atlanta fell to 6-12 SU and ATS in its last 18 games when it lost to Milwaukee on Wednesday, but it finds itself in an advantageous position tonight. Indiana lost Tyrese Haliburton for a couple weeks to injury, and Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner and Oshae Brissett are all questionable to play tonight. That rash of poor injury luck has the Pacers as underdogs at home to a team which has been outscored by 5.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the last month. It might be warranted as well, because without Haliburton on the floor Indiana’s offense manages just 108.9 points per 100 possessions.
Bradley Beal remains out with his hamstring injury, and five other Wizards carry a questionable designation for this contest. Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford are the most important names for Washington tonight, as their absence would mean a severely undersized frontcourt once again, this time against New York which ranks third in offensive rebounding (31.7%) and fifth in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (24.2). The Knickerbockers come into this 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six with a clean injury report, but should Porzingis and Gafford play expect this line to creep back toward the home team.
All the power to those who want to believe that Golden State can exorcize the road demons that plague them tonight. The Warriors are 3-16 SU/4-17 ATS away from home this season, and in their loss to the Suns on Tuesday they looked like a team trying to get their superstar back into a rhythm. Steph Curry is not on the injury report, so bettors can expect him with little limitations tonight. The betting market is clearly holding onto the idea that Golden State is still capable of winning away from home, as this number is up to -9 in a couple of shops, but attacking this in-game is probably the best way to go.
How does Chicago respond after an embarrassing loss to Washington on Wednesday in which it was held to 38 points in the second half? DeMar DeRozan is still considered doubtful, so the onus of scoring will fall on Zach LaVine once more but the Bulls need to find another offensive outlet, as only two other players reached double figures in scoring against the Wizards. Oklahoma City does come in on no rest, dispatching Philadelphia with ease last night, but the market is not holding that against the team as this number is heading in their direction. The Thunder love pressuring the rim, and come into this game third in frequency of attempts within four feet (38.8%). The Bulls have some trouble with rim protection, as evidenced by their loss to the Wizards in which they allowed Washington to go 20-of-23 at the rim, and their overall season ranking of 21st in opponent rim shooting.
The betting market is buying in on Utah here, as this number is up a half-point and not likely to find its way back toward Orlando. The Jazz have a few distinct matchup advantages here, the biggest of which comes at the 3-point line. Utah takes 41.6% of its attempts from beyond the arc and shoots 36.8% on those attempts. For the season they average 14.4 3-point makes per game compared to the 10.7 for Orlando. Meanwhile, the Magic are a team which prioritize rim defense and tend to allow 3-point attempts, which is one of the driving forces behind the team allowing the most 3-point attempts this season. Orlando can rebound somewhat well though, a strength needed in meetings with Utah, but the market does not seem to buy into the east coast team in the midst of a tough west coast trip.
The last time these two teams met in primetime we were treated to a 122-91 laugher that was more lopsided than even that score indicates. That might drive bettors to jump on Denver here, but Nikola Jokic is questionable to play tonight and that is a massive piece which can alter the number here. Without Jokic on the floor the Nuggets are outscored by 12.5 points per 100 possessions, and the team’s 107.8 offensive rating ranks in the 10th percentile of lineups in the NBA. Los Angeles won’t have Paul George or Luke Kennard on the floor tonight, but if Jokic cannot go this number will continue to move toward the Clippers without question. His status also makes this nearly impossible to play this early in the day.