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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 46-51 | Units: -8.28 | ROI: -8.79%
None as of this morning. Sacramento and Houston are on the list of bets for me to make, but with injury concerns that could alter these lines I will wait for confirmation before acting.
NBA Games & Odds
Sacramento Kings (-3.5, 239) at *Indiana Pacers
De’Aaron Fox will not play tonight due to personal reason so the betting market has pushed this opening number down a point, but Sacramento might not be in the worst spot without him. Davion Mitchell will start in his place, and when Mitchell is at point guard with the rest of the regular starting lineup of the Kings they are +10.6 per 100 possessions. That net rating is actually better than the regular starting group (+7.7), albeit over a smaller sample size. The point here is to not overreact to the loss of Fox. Sacramento has the rest advantage here, and we have no idea how Indiana might handle Tyrese Haliburton, who just returned from injury. Mitchell’s presence also gives the Kings a defensive option to regularly hound Haliburton when he is on the floor. Fox’s absence should be worth more to the total than it is the side, and we have seen that reaction as this total is down to 237 consensus.
Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards (-4.5, 234)
Portland escaped Memphis on Wednesday with a win, but they left that contest battered. Jusuf Nurkic left after just two minutes, and Jerami Grant went down after 20 minutes of play. Nurkic is out tonight and Grant is questionable to play, and with this being the front of a back-to-back we can probably assume Grant is missing one, if not both, of these contests. Damian Lillard offsets some of the losses if both Grant and Nurkic cannot play, but in the minutes that he sits Portland will be up against it, as they have a -7.0 net rating and average 108.4 points per 100 possessions when all three of them are off the floor. Washington has also been playing some of its best basketball for nearly two months, posting a 13-7 SU/14-6 ATS record in its last 20 games. The market is starting to move toward Portland, but if Grant is ruled out this should close higher than the opening line.
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics (-9.5, 226.5)
Phoenix begins an east coast road trip in a brutal spot at Boston. These two teams last met on Dec. 7 when the Celtics smoked the Suns 125-98 in Phoenix. At that time the Suns were at full strength, but tonight they go to Boston without Devin Booker. Phoenix has been playing much better basketball recently, coming into this game 6-2 SU and ATS since Cameron Johnson and Chris Paul returned from injury. Boston put forth an incredible effort against a short-handed Brooklyn team on Wednesday, but it still 1-6 ATS in its last seven and it does seem that result has the market buying in once more. This number is now -10 at some respected shops, and it is likely not coming down. Is Phoenix, without Devin Booker, worse than Brooklyn without Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons? This number would say so.
Toronto Raptors (-6.5, 227) at Houston Rockets
Jalen Green and Kevin Porter are out once more, and that allows us to test the theory of Houston being better without them. For those who do not remember, when the Rockets hosted the Thunder on Wednesday it was noted in this column that Houston was, statistically, a much better team without Green and Porter on the floor as long as Alperen Sengun was playing. The Rockets proceeded to win outright at home, and they are now only -1.7 per 100 possessions without those two, and +12.3 in the possessions with Sengun on the floor without them. The betting market is not buying in, and has pushed this number up to 7.5 consensus, likely due to the questionable status of Jabari Smith Jr., but the Raptors do not come into this in good form. OG Anunoby remains out with a wrist injury and their defense continues to put forth lackluster efforts. On this road trip they are allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions, and since losing Anunoby their defensive rating is 122.4 in three games. Toronto is not a team I would running to the window to back right now.
Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5, 231)
This is a fascinating contest between two teams that have been treating bettors really well at the window. Since Jan. 1 the Timberwolves are 12-5 SU/11-4-2 ATS with the sixth best net rating in non-garbage time (+4.6). Over the same time period Orlando is 7-8 SU/11-4 ATS with a much improved defense that is allowing only 113.6 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves have been winning games with defense as well, limiting their opponents to 111.5 points per 100 possessions themselves, but with Rudy Gobert questionable tonight the Magic could have a slight edge. Minnesota has been playing this game with Gobert for about a month now, but since he missed the win over Golden State this seems like a more solid questionable designation. Without Gobert on the floor Minnesota allows 5.4 more points per 100 possessions, but improves its output on offense. This could turn into a higher scoring affair without Gobert, but the market has cut this total down to 229.5 which is a number I would look to play over if he cannot play.
Philadelphia 76ers (-10, 235) at San Antonio Spurs
It has become common for Philadelphia to play games with Joel Embiid’s status each day, and once again he is listed as questionable for this game against San Antonio. However, this could be an opportunity to rest Embiid with a game against New York coming up in a couple of days. San Antonio is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in its last seven games, and 1-12 SU/5-8 ATS in its last 13 contests. Philadelphia would be perfectly able to dispatch this team without Embiid, but don’t be caught laying a fat number preflop with the Embiid status in question. Instead, attack this in-game and look for a better price on a massive favorite.
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz (-1.5, 240.5)
Are the Atlanta Hawks 1.5 points better than the Toronto Raptors without OG Anunoby? They might be, but it’s a simple line comparison exercise for bettors to see if there is value on Utah here. If you do not believe that to be the case, then a bet on the Jazz might be warranted. Utah has been an extremely effective home team this season, improving to 18-9 SU/15-10-2 ATS after beating Toronto on Wednesday. That game fell right on the number, but the Jazz offense was incredible, putting up 1.31 points per possession and improving on the fifth best home offensive rating in the NBA.