NBA: Best bets, model projections and analysis for Friday, November 10th

November 10, 2023 09:23 AM


NBA best bets, model projections and analysis for Friday, November 10th

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Best Bets 

Record: 14-7 | Units: +6.35u | ROI: 27.89%

Listed lines are opening numbers | * - Indicates team is on a back-to-back

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-1.5, 242)

Jon Von Model Projection: Wizards by 7.7 points

There is no way this is not an insanely fun matchup tonight. Washington enters this game 30th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (124.7) and Charlotte is just two spots better at 28th (121.2). The Wizards lead the NBA in pace (106.21) and the Hornets are just three spots back in fourth (103.29). Charlotte leads the league in points per 100 missed attempts, according to Cleaning The Glass (27.9) and Washington allows the sixth most points per 100 missed attempts (26.4). On the other end, the Wizards add the eighth-most points per 100 plays in transition (4.2) and the Hornets allow the fifth-most (4.2).

You probably see where this is going at this point.

We’re getting exactly what we expect tonight, so why fight it? This is a home-and-home situation, as both teams just played one another on Wednesday, and the Wizards won 132-116 and the game went Over the total. The closing number in that game was 239 points, so perhaps the market believes this to be too much of an adjustment. There is also the concept of familiarity having just played one another, and perhaps that leads to a better defensive effort. I’m not in the business of asking two of the worst defensive teams to put forth good efforts on that end of the floor. Four games have closed with totals of 240.5 or higher this season, and all four have gone Over the total. Expect this game to make it 5-0 to the Over.

Play: OVER 239.5 - Playable up to 241.5

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (-10.5, 223.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Celtics by 15.7 points

Brooklyn has been a pleasant surprise at the window for bettors this season. After defeating the Clippers on Wednesday, the Nets improved to 7-0-1 ATS on the season. Their offense has been astounding to this point, averaging 115.6 points per 100 possessions and they are fourth in 3-point shooting (40.8%). However, the team suffered a massive blow when it was announced that Cam Thomas would miss at least two weeks with an ankle sprain.

Thomas leads Brooklyn in scoring at 26.9 points per game, and he takes the most shot attempts by far (20.6). When he is on the floor the Nets average 117.1 points per 100 possessions, but when he is off their offensive rating drops to 112.4, according to Cleaning The Glass. It’s hard to see where the shot creation comes from for Brooklyn now that Thomas is no longer available, especially against Boston. The Celtics’ offense might be struggling - which has led to a 1-2 SU/0-2-1 ATS slide over the last three games - but the defense is still thriving. 

Boston is second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (104.2) and they are back home after a tough three-game road trip. There is a reality in which the Celtics explode on offense now that they are in the familiar confines of their arena, so instead let’s bet against the team missing its best scorer.

Play: Nets TT UN 108.5 (-110) - Playable up to (-125)

Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5, 224.5) at Sacramento Kings

Jon Von Model Projection: Thunder by 4.2 points

De’Aaron Fox will not return for Sacramento tonight, making this his fifth game missed with an ankle injury. The Kings have gone 1-3 SU and ATS in the four games without him. Sacramento has averaged just 102.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that span, the worst non-garbage time offensive rating in the league in that time. 

The betting market also seems to refuse to adjust to the loss of Fox. On Wednesday the market came in on the Kings and the line closed with Sacramento as an eight-point favorite only for them to need overtime to beat Portland. This morning we are seeing a similar support for the Kings, but I am willing to go against the grain just as I did on Wednesday. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS this season, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not face a defender capable of matching him tonight. 

Play: Thunder (-1.5) - Playable up to (-3.5)

Best Bets

Wizards/Hornets OV 240.5

Nets TT UN 108.5

Thunder (-1.5)

Model Projections

Philadelphia 76ers (-8, 222.5) at Detroit Pistons

Jon Von Model Projection: 76ers by 7.1 points

Minnesota Timberwolves (-5, 225.5) at San Antonio Spurs

Jon Von Model Projection: Timberwolves by 7.2 points

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies (-4, 234.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Grizzlies by 8.9 points

New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets (-1.5, 217)

Jon Von Model Projection: Pelicans by 7.5 points

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 233.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Mavericks by 1.7 points

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 222.5)

Jon Von Model Projection: Suns by 1.3 points

As we can see in these projections there are quite a few edges according to the model. However, we should point out a few things in these projections.

The projection for New Orleans does have Zion Williamson in the starting lineup. If he does not play Jon Von Model says he is worth 3.5 points to the spread. If he does not play the model still projects a win of just over four points for the Pelicans.

The projection for the Los Angeles Lakers has Anthony Davis in the starting lineup. The model projects Davis to be worth 3.9 points to the projected score, so if he cannot play the adjusted number would be Suns by 5.1 points. Keep in mind that this projection does include Bradley Beal, who is worth 1.1 points according to the model.

It's also worth mentioning how highly rated the Grizzlies are according to the model. That is the issue when using a model that is based on a single statistic, and it is the projection I disagree with the most.

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