NBA: Best bets and analysis for Tuesday, October 24th

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
-
89
 

NBA best bets and analysis for 2 games today

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Best Bets

Record: 0-0 | Units: 0.00u | ROI: 0.00%

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(Listed lines are opening numbers)

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors (-1.5, 230.5)

Devin Booker and Bradley Beal might have questionable designations for this game against Golden State, but Frank Vogel told the media on Sunday that “everyone is good to go”. That clean bill of health will be an advantage here against the Warriors who will not have Draymond Green on the floor. Green’s absence will loom large for Golden State which now has limited options for Kevin Durant on defense.

Multiple shops have adjusted this line to PK but those who are interested in Phoenix – like myself – can still find the Suns at better than -110 on the moneyline. However, while I believe there to be value in Phoenix there is little value in betting them preflop. The consensus total is up to 234.5 as of Monday evening. In a game with a total this high there will be volatility, and bettors will likely get an opportunity to get a better price on either team in-game.

So for this game we will be looking at the player prop menu. One of the players I am very high on this season is Booker, and I believe him to be the Suns’ best option at point guard. In the preseason his numbers were fantastic, and they painted a picture of a player who will have the ball in his hands. Booker averaged only 3.7 assists per game, but that was over the course of 17.8 minutes per contest. His per 36 minutes statistics show an average of 7.4 assists per game. This is one of the many angles I come into the season wanting to play on, so that is what I will play for opening night.

Best Bet: Devin Booker Assists OV 6.5 (+105)

Best Bets

Devin Booker Assists OV 6.5 (+105) – Playable up to -110

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-5, 226.5)

There are many handicappers who will tell you that playing against defending champions on opening night is a profitable strategy because of the “distraction” that ring night is. I’m here to tell you that is a bunch of nonsense. Golden State won and covered against Los Angeles last season on ring night to bring the record of defending champions on ring night to 9-2 SU/7-4 ATS the last 11 years. Over the last 27 seasons that record is 19-8 SU/12-15 ATS which tells us it’s a useless small sample size trend with no value.

What will decide this matchup on Tuesday will be what transpires on the court, and if the last time these two teams met is any indication it will be a tight matchup. In the Western Conference Finals the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but Denver went just 2-2 ATS in the series. In fact, they failed to cover both games at home.

The matchup to watch is along the perimeter. Los Angeles spent the offseason improving its shooting talent. In the series loss last season to Denver the Lakers made 21 fewer 3-point shots on 35 fewer attempts than the Nuggets. In the preseason they took 36.0 3-point attempts per game, which is 4.8 more per game than what they did in the regular season. If Los Angeles can close the gap along the perimeter they can be live on the road against the defending champions.

That change in philosophy for the Lakers is likely why the market pushed this total up by two points from the open. It seems that 228.5 is the ceiling for this total, but now that game day has arrived the public could get involved and push this number even higher by the time tip-off arrives.

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