NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, November 14th
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Record: 16-9 | Units: +6.13u | ROI: 22.55%
* - Indicates team is on a back-to-back
Atlanta Hawks (-6, 231.5) at Detroit Pistons
Trae Young is questionable to play due to personal reasons, and until his status is known for this game it is nearly impossible to recommend a pre-flop wager. One could argue Young’s absence will be a positive for the Hawks – he is currently posting the worst efficiency differential (-10.0) of his career – but he is still worth something to the point spread. If Young does not end up playing, Atlanta could be worth circling. The Hawks have outscored opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions without him on the floor this season. Regardless, Atlanta is just 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in its last five games and in poor form.
One thing to watch for Detroit: Ausar Thompson. The rookie has crushed his rebounding props this season. He is 8-2 to the Over on his total rebounds and the number has gone from 5.5 in his debut to 10.5 tonight and bettors are laying -125 on the Over. This is the time to sell high on the rookie. Atlanta is a good rebounding team that ranks 11th in defensive rebounding rate (72.3%) and eighth in overall rebounding rate (52.4%). Getting +100 on Thompson to get 10 or fewer rebounds against this team is some very good value.
Play: Ausar Thompson UN 10.5 REB (+100) - Playable to (-125)
Miami Heat (-3.5, 230) at Charlotte Hornets
Miami is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in its last five games, and it has covered its last three affairs. Tyler Herro remains out with his ankle injury and Kevin Love is questionable to play, but there are no other injuries of note for the Heat tonight. It makes sense the market would jump on the opening number and lay it with Miami. Charlotte is still without Terry Rozier, and while Brandon Miller is probable there is still a possibility he does not play.
The angle to look at here is going to be with LaMelo Ball. Charlotte’s offense has been very good this season, and currently ranks 11th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency. However, they have played just two teams ranked higher than 17th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. Miami is up to 11th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency this season, and the team is sound enough to limit the opportunities Ball and his teammates will have. Ball’s assist prop is 8.5 shaded to the Over at -130 which is extremely expensive. He has gone Under that total five times this season and against much lesser defensive competition.
Play: LaMelo Ball UN 8.5 AST (+100) - Playable up to (-125)
Ausar Thompson UN 10.5 REB (+100)
LaMelo Ball UN 8.5 AST (+100)