NBA: Best bets and analysis for Monday, October 30th

By
Jonathan Von Tobel
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519
 

NBA best bets and analysis for 11 games today

NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports

 

Best Bets

Record: 6-2 | Units: +3.85u | ROI: 44.51%

Top NBA Resources:

Listed lines are opening numbers | * – Indicates team is on a back-to-back

Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 234.5) at *Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta comes is on the second leg of a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights for the first time this season. The Hawks grabbed their first win last night in Milwaukee with an impressive win over the Bucks so the vibes are probably great with the team as they head back home. However, the Timberwolves await with a rest advantage after a night off on Sunday, and that could be trouble for the home team.

Minnesota has been just as advertised on defense through two games this season. It has limited its two opponents – Toronto and Miami – to 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Their 74.1 defensive rating in the halfcourt currently leads the league as well, and they have only allowed 88.5 points per 100 transition plays. That last number will come into play tonight in a big way, because the Hawks are running early in the season. Atlanta has the highest transition frequency through three games this season (21.5%) and it used a dominant transition offense to beat Milwaukee on Sunday. If the Timberwolves can contain their transition offense, then they will be able to match up well when the game slows down.

This leads me to the total. Both of the Timberwolves’ games this season have gone Under by a wide margin. Much of that has to do with the team’s dominant defense, but it also has to do with their offense. As it did last season, Minnesota’s offense is scuffling and averaging just 1.026 points per possession in non-garbage time. The team is also playing slow, averaging 99.75 possessions per game and only 20.0% of their live rebounds lead to a play in transition. I expect they’ll be able to defend at a high level while also forcing the Hawks into playing more of their brand of basketball tonight.

Play: UNDER 234.5 – Playable down to 232.5

*Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5, 233)

New Orleans is catching Golden State in a great situation. This will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Warriors and their third game in four nights, all of which have come on the road. Steve Kerr told the media after the win in Houston that he will have his full starting lineup available tonight, so there should be no worry of rest for the Warriors despite Draymond Green playing in just his second game on the ankle he injured.

Still, the situation and the number warrant a play on the home team tonight. The Pelicans will have their trio of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum on the floor, and as long as they are available this team is better than how the market is rating them. New Orleans has won and covered both games it has played this season, and has been home since winning the season opener in Memphis. It seems clear that the market is using three points as the price for homecourt early, and given the situation anything floating around that number is worth a play here for the Pelicans. 

Play: Pelicans (-2.5) – Playable up to (-3.5)

Miami Heat at *Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, 223.5)

Milwaukee was cooked last night by Atlanta’s transition offense. The Hawks averaged 1.308 points per possession in non-garbage time, and 1.84 points per play in transition in the win. Through two games the Bucks’ transition defense has been poor, allowing their opponents to average 1.862 points per play off live rebounds. The underwhelming defense has led to Milwaukee starting the season 0-2 ATS, but it might be worth taking the risk and laying the points with them tonight.

First and foremost, the Bucks should be at full strength tonight. It is a back-to-back, but they have only played twice since the season began for them on Thursday. Khris Middleton had the night off on Sunday due to rest and should be back in the fold against Miami, and both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard played less than 30 minutes against Atlanta.

This is also a very cheap number. Assuming full strength for the Bucks, why is this number three points lighter than what the Celtics were laying against the Heat in Boston? Milwaukee and Boston are nearly identical in rating, so this number should be much closer to 7.5 than where it is now.

Play: Bucks (-5) – Playable to (-6.5)

Best Bets

Timberwolves/Hawks UNDER 234.5
Bucks (-5)
Pelicans (-2.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-2, 226.5) at Charlotte Hornets

The number here looks light for Brooklyn, but both Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton are out tonight with injury. Despite dealing with injuries the Nets have covered both games they have played this season, and it is due to an offense that is running and gunning. Brooklyn leads the league in 3-point shooting (44.1%) and is averaging 1.333 points per play in transition. That is a game that Charlotte will be more than willing to play tonight. The betting market has bet this up to 22.5 at multiple shops, but with plenty of books still at 227.5 this is still playable for those interested.

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (-4, 227)

The screen has been lighting up for this game since 4 a.m. on the west coast. Some offshore books opened this total at 226.5 and DraftKings hung up 227 overnight, but as of this morning 230 is the consensus number. Indiana is a wild Over team early this season. They average 104.5 possessions per game, 42.5% of their live ball rebounds lead to a transition play and they have averaged 1.526 points per play in the fastbreak. This has led to both games it has played to go Over by 27.5 and 16 points. The Bulls have only averaged 103.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, but a quicker pace against a poor Pacers defense could be enough to keep this trend going.

Boston Celtics (-9.5, 227.5) at Washington Wizards

Washington caught a bad Memphis team sleeping, but there is no question the market believes the Wizards to be the lowest rated team in the league. Washington also might be without a key piece tonight in Daniel Gafford, who is questionable to play with an ankle injury. Boston has yet to cover a closing number – they have pushed in their first two games – but the market seems to believe there is an opportunity here tonight. The Celtics have been bet up to 10.5-point favorites at a few shops and it makes sense. When Boston played Miami in the second game of the season they were laying eight points, and the difference between the Heat and Wizards is more than just two points, especially if Gafford cannot go.

*Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors (-7, 217.5)

This might come as a surprise considering the Trail Blazers had one of the lowest win totals on the board, but the market thinks too highly of this team. Portland has been beat up through the first three games of the season, and heading into this contest the team is 0-3 SU and ATS with a cover margin of -7.2 points. The young Trail Blazers’ offense has managed just 102.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and Anfernee Simons was lost for 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury. Those who shape the market jumped on this early, pushing the Raptors up to 8.5-point favorites this morning.

Dallas Mavericks (-2, 227) at Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis stayed within the number against Denver over the weekend, but it has some real problems on offense. The Grizzlies have averaged just 103.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Their halfcourt offense is the sixth-worst through three games (86.2), and its current statistical output is that of a 27-win team, according to Cleaning The Glass. It’s still too small of a sample size to react strongly to, and tonight will be a good litmus test. Dallas has been great on offense, but it has allowed 115.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. If the Grizzlies have trouble on offense tonight it could be the confirmation of a tough season on the horizon.

Detroit Pistons at *Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 228)

The Pistons are 3-0 ATS through three games, and their wins over Chicago and Charlotte are evidence that they could be legitimately improved this season. The total here has been bet down two points, but the line has been static since the open due to the unknown nature of the Thunder roster, as they are coming in on a back-to-back. Isaiah Stewart won’t play for Detroit tonight, which kept me off the Pistons in this spot. One thing to monitor in the player prop market: Cade Cunningham assists. He’s assisted on 37.9% of his teammates’ made shots when on the floor, and has gone over 6.5 assists in two of the three games and six in the other. 

Utah Jazz at *Denver Nuggets (-6.5, 231)

The Nuggets are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but they look terrifying through three games. Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 13.0 rebounds and 7.7 assists on 61.5% shooting and Denver is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS with two double-digit victories. The Jazz grabbed a win over the Clippers, but through three games opponents have averaged 125.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Denver will likely handle this defense with ease, and it is why the market has bet this up to Nuggets -8 at multiple shops.

Orlando Magic at *Los Angeles Lakers (-4, 222) 

It’s a poor scheduling spot for Los Angeles tonight. The Lakers fell in overtime to the Kings on Sunday night, and now they are back home to take on the upstart Magic. LeBron James’ status is what bettors will have to monitor throughout the day. The league’s new rest policy has stressed that teams make their star players available on the road for visiting fans, and that has led to key players sitting at home in the early portion of the season. It makes sense then that James – who has played 35 and 39 minutes in the two games following a reported minutes restriction – would sit tonight. The betting market did cut this number down to Lakers -2 this morning and the total is down to as low as 218 at multiple books.

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