NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, November 6th
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Record: 11-5 | Units: +5.55u | ROI: 32.14%
Listed lines are opening numbers | * - Indicates team is on a back-to-back
Boston Celtics (-4, 225.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves
It would probably be wise to avoid jumping in front of Boston, considering how hot this team is to start the season. The Celtics are 5-0 SU and winning by an average of 20.5 points per game. Obviously that average is inflated by a 41-point win over Indiana, and if you look at it from a point spread perspective Boston is only 2-0-3 ATS this season. The market has seemingly nailed this team’s power rating thus far, and I have some confidence in trying to take my shot in a tricky road spot tonight.
Minnesota has been home since losing on the road to Atlanta on Oct. 30 in embarrassing fashion. The Timberwolves have played just two games in the last six days, and had ample practice time which is rare during the regular season. Their defense is also tremendous. Only one opponent this season has put up more than a point per possession against Minnesota this season. It leads the league in both overall non-garbage time defensive efficiency (101.7) and halfcourt defensive efficiency (82.9). It also has the pieces – like Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels – to effectively guard Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown along the perimeter.
The Timberwolves are a team I have thought highly of dating back to last season because of their ability to defend. Their offense is starting to show signs of life as well. I’ll buy on the scheduling spot and defense here tonight.
Play: Timberwolves (+4) - Playable to (+3)
Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 229.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn has been a better team than the market believes it to be, and it enters this game 5-0-1 ATS on the season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has arguably been the most overrated team by the market – outside of Chicago and Miami which are a combined 1-11-1 ATS – with a 1-4 ATS record. These two teams meeting would logically mean looking at the Nets to cover the number, but there is a different force at work here worth playing.
Both Brooklyn and Milwaukee enter this contest with one another ranked 23rd and 28th respectively in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. The Nets have struggled in halfcourt settings this season. Opponents are putting up 101.7 points per 100 plays and doing that despite rebounding just 23.7% of their missed attempts. The Bucks cannot keep teams out of transition. Their opponents have averaged 147.5 points per 100 plays in transition, and 150.0 points per 100 plays in transition off live rebounds, both marks ranking last in the NBA.
Well, it just so happens that Milwaukee does rank sixth in halfcourt offense (99.3) this season, and Brooklyn ranks ninth in transition offensive efficiency (133.3). It seems like a match made in heaven for an Over today. Each team does well what the other struggles to defend. It would also lead me to believe that the Nets are somewhat live here as well, but I’ll just play the Over instead.
Play: OVER 230.5 - Playable up to 232
Bucks/Nets OVER 230.5
*Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 229) at *Detroit Pistons
Steve Kerr told the media that his veterans would play tonight in Detroit, so there is no need to worry about the availability of the starting lineup for Golden State. That’s not great news for the sliding Pistons which are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games with a -8.5 spread differential. Detroit has looked like the team it was last season over this stretch, and it has led to the team being outscored by 14.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. It is unclear whether the Pistons will rest Cunningham in this game either, so until that is known it is hard to recommend a pre-flop play. One thing for bettors who scour player prop markets to look out for: Ausar Thompson is balling. In the loss to Phoenix, Thompson put up 14 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals and 4 blocks. For the season he is averaging 1.1 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. Keep an eye out for his steals and blocks props, as there could still be value in playing those Over.
*San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers (-7, 238.5)
San Antonio fell in overtime to Toronto on Sunday, and they come in on no rest to face Indiana tonight. Victor Wembanyama is getting into a groove on offense, and enters this game not only averaging 25.3 points per game on 51.9% shooting but he is also on a 4-1 run to the Over on his point total prop. If he plays tonight that might be an angle to monitor for bettors, especially if it is higher than 17.5 points. As far as the game is concerned, let’s focus on the total. Indiana is 5-1 to the Over this season, and San Antonio is on a 3-0 run to the Over in its last three games. The total has come down to 237.5 at a few books, but there seems to be no rush to bet this high total Under by the market.