Makinen: NBA Schedule Scenarios produce betting opportunities

January 24, 2023 09:05 PM
Luka
Up next for the Blackhawks: Vegas, baby

Late last week, I posted an article about some scheduling scenarios in the NHL that were producing noteworthy profits for bettors. In just an hour, I was already receiving requests from readers asking to do the same thing for the NBA. In most daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the court. Unfortunately, as many fans have been wide to criticize, it also affects the level of availability of the game’s top players.

I have always made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given NBA game a key part of my handicapping routine. It is proving to be a worthwhile exercise again in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see below in various NBA Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results thus far.

You’ll see that I’ve only picked out scenarios in which I believe there is a foundation to them as well. Like last week for the NHL, I also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage. For the remainder of the season, you can always visit the NBA Daily Power Ratings link on VSiN.com to get the current scheduling scenarios for every NBA game.

 

NBA Scheduling Scenario System #1

NBA home teams playing on one day fewer rest than their visiting opponents have gone 58-31 SU and 57-31-1 ATS (64.7%) for +22.9 units of profit and a R.O.I. of 25.7% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.

Steve’s thoughts: This is an interesting system in that most fans and bettors believe that the more rested a team is, the better. You’ll find a couple more angles in a bit that detail how that is not the case this season. In my assessment, some of this could be attributed to home teams being in rhythm from playing so recently. It could also be due to oddsmaker overreaction to load management strategies, which usually occur on a back-to-back or other short rest scenarios.

Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #1

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        

Cleveland Cavaliers - Two Days Rest

New York Knicks - One Day Rest

 

Washington Wizards – Two Days Rest

Dallas Mavericks      - One Day Rest

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  

Minnesota Timberwolves – One Day Rest

New Orleans Pelicans – Home/Home Back-to-Back    

           

Toronto Raptors – Two Days Rest

Sacramento Kings – One Day Rest

           

San Antonio Spurs   - One Day Rest

Los Angeles Lakers – Home/Home Back-to-Back

Thursday, January 26, 2023       

Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest

Houston Rockets – Home/Home Back-to-Back

Saturday, January 28, 2023       

Los Angeles Lakers – Two Days Rest

Boston Celtics – One Day Rest

           

Chicago Bulls – One Day Rest

Orlando Magic – Away/Home Back-To-Back

NBA Scheduling Scenario System #2

NBA road teams playing on one day fewer rest than their opponent hosts have gone 62-81 SU but 76-64-3 ATS (54.3%) for +5.6 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 3.9% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.

Steve’s thoughts: Obviously this isn’t as powerful of a system in terms of the profit produced, but it follows similar reasoning to that of #1 above. Road teams seem to be in a better rhythm with the one-day shorter rest period. When in doubt, when two teams are squaring off and one is on a day’s shorter rest, back that team.

Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #2

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        

Boston Celtics – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Miami Heat – One Day Rest

           

Charlotte Hornets – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Phoenix Suns – One Day Rest

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  

Indiana Pacers – Home/Away Back-to-Back

Orlando Magic – One Day Rest

           

Brooklyn Nets – Two Days Rest

Philadelphia 76ers - 3+ Days Rest

           

Atlanta Hawks – One Day Rest

Oklahoma City Thunder – Two Days Rest

           

Denver Nuggets – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Milwaukee Bucks – One Day Rest

           

Washington Wizards – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Houston Rockets – One Day Rest

           

Memphis Grizzlies – One Day Rest

Golden State Warriors – Two Days Rest

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023       

San Antonio Spurs – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest

Friday, January 27, 2023 

Orlando Magic – One Day Rest

Miami Heat – Two Days Rest

           

Cleveland Cavaliers - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Oklahoma City Thunder – One Day Rest

 

Saturday, January 28, 2023       

Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest

Atlanta Hawks – Two Days Rest

           

Dallas Mavericks – One Day Rest

Utah Jazz – Two Days Rest

 

Sunday, January 29, 2023          

Miami Heat – One Day Rest

Charlotte Hornets – Two Days Rest

           

Los Angeles Clippers – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Cleveland Cavaliers – One Day Rest

           

New Orleans Pelicans – Home/Away Back-to-Back

Milwaukee Bucks – One Day Rest

NBA Scheduling Scenario System #3

NBA home teams playing on the second of a back-to-back or on a single day’s rest are 328-210 SU and 293-233-12 ATS (55.7%) for +36.7 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.8% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.

Steve’s thoughts: This goes further into the system detailed in #1 above. It seems that less rest is better than more for host teams this season. This again contradicts most bettors’ beliefs of how fatigue influences success levels. It seems rhythm and regularity are the more important principles. There aren’t many basic systems in the NBA that can produce 6.8% returns. Continue to monitor this one as the season wears on, as perhaps it could change as more and more fatigue sets in during the March/April months.

Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #3

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        

Boston Celtics - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Miami Heat – One Day Rest

           

Cleveland Cavaliers – Two Days Rest

New York Knicks – One Day Rest

           

Denver Nuggets – One Day Rest

New Orleans Pelicans – One Day Rest

           

Washington Wizards – Two Days Rest

Dallas Mavericks – One Day Rest

           

Charlotte Hornets – Away/Away Back-to-Back

Phoenix Suns – One Day Rest

           

Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest

Los Angeles Lakers – One Day Rest

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  

Indiana Pacers.- Home/Away Back-to Back

Orlando Magic - One Day Rest

           

Denver Nuggets - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest

           

Minnesota Timberwolves - One Day Rest

New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Home Back-to-Back

           

Washington Wizards - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Houston Rockets - One Day Rest

           

Utah Jazz - One Day Rest

Portland Trail Blazers - One Day Rest

           

Toronto Raptors - Two Days Rest

Sacramento Kings   - One Day Rest

           

San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest

Los Angeles Lakers - Home/Home Back-to-Back

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023       

New York Knicks - One Day Rest

Boston Celtics - One Day Rest

           

Detroit Pistons - Two Days Rest

Brooklyn Nets - Away/Home Back-to-Back

           

Chicago Bulls - One Day Rest

Charlotte Hornets - One Day Rest

           

Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest

Houston Rockets - Home/Home Back-to-Back

           

San Antonio Spurs   - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Los Angeles Clippers - One Day Rest

           

Dallas Mavericks - One Day Rest

Phoenix Suns - One Day Rest

 

Friday, January 27, 2023 

Toronto Raptors - One Day Rest

Golden State Warriors - One Day Rest

           

Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest

Indiana Pacers - One Day Rest

           

Memphis Grizzlies   - One Day Rest

Minnesota Timberwolves - One Day Rest

           

Cleveland Cavaliers - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Oklahoma City Thunder - One Day Rest

 

Saturday, January 28, 2023       

Los Angeles Lakers - Two Days Rest

Boston Celtics - One Day Rest

           

New York Knicks - One Day Rest

Brooklyn Nets - One Day Rest

           

Houston Rockets - One Day Rest

Detroit Pistons - One Day Rest

           

Sacramento Kings - Two Days Rest

Minnesota Timberwolves - Home/Home Back-to-Back

           

Chicago Bulls - One Day Rest

Orlando Magic - Away/Home Back-to-Back

           

Phoenix Suns - One Day Rest

San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest

 

Sunday, January 29, 2023          

Los Angeles Clippers - Away/Away Back-to-Back

Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest

           

Indiana Pacers - One Day Rest

Memphis Grizzlies - One Day Rest

           

New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Away Back-to-Back

Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest

NBA Scheduling Scenario System #4

NBA home teams playing on at least two full days rest have gone 100-74 SU but 80-92-2 ATS (46.5%) for -21.2 units of loss and an R.O.I. of -12.2% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.

Steve’s thoughts: Contrary to popular belief, well-rested home teams have not performed up to par this season, as it seems the loss of rhythm from rest is affecting them. In fact, it affects these hosts more on the defensive end, as they are allowing nearly 5.0 PPG more when well-rested. This is also one to keep an eye on going forward. Longer rest periods do also arise often in the playoffs.

Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #4

 

Tuesday, January 24, 2023        

Chicago Bulls - Home/Away Back-To-Back

Indiana Pacers - Two Days Rest

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  

Brooklyn Nets - Two Days Rest

Philadelphia 76ers - 3+ Days Rest           

 

Atlanta Hawks - One Day Rest

Oklahoma City Thunder - Two Days Rest

           

Memphis Grizzlies   - One Day Rest

Golden State Warriors - Two Days Rest

 

Friday, January 27, 2023 

Orlando Magic - One Day Rest

Miami Heat - Two Days Rest

 

Saturday, January 28, 2023       

Los Angeles Clippers - One Day Rest

Atlanta Hawks - Two Days Rest

           

Washington Wizards - Two Days Rest

New Orleans Pelicans - Two Days Rest

           

Denver Nuggets - Two Days Rest

Philadelphia 76ers - Two Days Rest

           

Toronto Raptors - Away/Away Back-To-Back

Portland Trail Blazers - Two Days Rest

           

Dallas Mavericks - One Day Rest

Utah Jazz - Two Days Rest

 

Sunday, January 29, 2023          

Miami Heat - One Day Rest

Charlotte Hornets - Two Days Rest

NBA Scheduling Scenario System #5

NBA home teams playing their second home game in as many nights have gone 40-18 SU and 35-21-2 ATS (62.5%) for +11.9 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 20.5% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.

Steve’s thoughts: This would seem to be the ultimate rhythm scenario for a home team. Playing a second straight day on their home court. Obviously, they were able to spend the previous night and the game day at home. This doesn’t come up all that often on a team’s annual schedule, but when it does, the overall league success level should be noted.

Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #5

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023  

Minnesota Timberwolves    - One Day Rest

New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Home Back-To-Back

           

San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest

Los Angeles Lakers - Home/Home Back-To-Back

 

Thursday, January 26, 2023       

Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest

Houston Rockets - Home/Home Back-To-Back

 

Saturday, January 28, 2023       

Sacramento Kings - Two Days Rest

Minnesota Timberwolves    - Home/Home Back-To-Back

Summary

These scheduling systems show that there is much more to NBA betting than analyzing the strength of two teams in a game. In a long, arduous, 82-game regular season, how a team plays in various rest scenarios can go a long way in determining its postseason status. Be sure to acknowledge these scheduling situations the rest of the way, and utilize VSiN’s Daily Power Ratings page to find every game’s scenario.
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