Late last week, I posted an article about some scheduling scenarios in the NHL that were producing noteworthy profits for bettors. In just an hour, I was already receiving requests from readers asking to do the same thing for the NBA. In most daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the court. Unfortunately, as many fans have been wide to criticize, it also affects the level of availability of the game’s top players.
I have always made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given NBA game a key part of my handicapping routine. It is proving to be a worthwhile exercise again in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see below in various NBA Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results thus far.
You’ll see that I’ve only picked out scenarios in which I believe there is a foundation to them as well. Like last week for the NHL, I also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage. For the remainder of the season, you can always visit the NBA Daily Power Ratings link on VSiN.com to get the current scheduling scenarios for every NBA game.
NBA Scheduling Scenario System #1
NBA home teams playing on one day fewer rest than their visiting opponents have gone 58-31 SU and 57-31-1 ATS (64.7%) for +22.9 units of profit and a R.O.I. of 25.7% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.
Steve’s thoughts: This is an interesting system in that most fans and bettors believe that the more rested a team is, the better. You’ll find a couple more angles in a bit that detail how that is not the case this season. In my assessment, some of this could be attributed to home teams being in rhythm from playing so recently. It could also be due to oddsmaker overreaction to load management strategies, which usually occur on a back-to-back or other short rest scenarios.
Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #1
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Cleveland Cavaliers - Two Days Rest
New York Knicks - One Day Rest
Washington Wizards – Two Days Rest
Dallas Mavericks - One Day Rest
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Minnesota Timberwolves – One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans – Home/Home Back-to-Back
Toronto Raptors – Two Days Rest
Sacramento Kings – One Day Rest
San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest
Los Angeles Lakers – Home/Home Back-to-Back
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest
Houston Rockets – Home/Home Back-to-Back
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Los Angeles Lakers – Two Days Rest
Boston Celtics – One Day Rest
Chicago Bulls – One Day Rest
Orlando Magic – Away/Home Back-To-Back
NBA Scheduling Scenario System #2
NBA road teams playing on one day fewer rest than their opponent hosts have gone 62-81 SU but 76-64-3 ATS (54.3%) for +5.6 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 3.9% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously this isn’t as powerful of a system in terms of the profit produced, but it follows similar reasoning to that of #1 above. Road teams seem to be in a better rhythm with the one-day shorter rest period. When in doubt, when two teams are squaring off and one is on a day’s shorter rest, back that team.
Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #2
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Boston Celtics – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Miami Heat – One Day Rest
Charlotte Hornets – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Phoenix Suns – One Day Rest
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Indiana Pacers – Home/Away Back-to-Back
Orlando Magic – One Day Rest
Brooklyn Nets – Two Days Rest
Philadelphia 76ers - 3+ Days Rest
Atlanta Hawks – One Day Rest
Oklahoma City Thunder – Two Days Rest
Denver Nuggets – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Milwaukee Bucks – One Day Rest
Washington Wizards – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Houston Rockets – One Day Rest
Memphis Grizzlies – One Day Rest
Golden State Warriors – Two Days Rest
Thursday, January 26, 2023
San Antonio Spurs – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest
Friday, January 27, 2023
Orlando Magic – One Day Rest
Miami Heat – Two Days Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Oklahoma City Thunder – One Day Rest
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest
Atlanta Hawks – Two Days Rest
Dallas Mavericks – One Day Rest
Utah Jazz – Two Days Rest
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Miami Heat – One Day Rest
Charlotte Hornets – Two Days Rest
Los Angeles Clippers – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Cleveland Cavaliers – One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans – Home/Away Back-to-Back
Milwaukee Bucks – One Day Rest
NBA Scheduling Scenario System #3
NBA home teams playing on the second of a back-to-back or on a single day’s rest are 328-210 SU and 293-233-12 ATS (55.7%) for +36.7 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.8% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.
Steve’s thoughts: This goes further into the system detailed in #1 above. It seems that less rest is better than more for host teams this season. This again contradicts most bettors’ beliefs of how fatigue influences success levels. It seems rhythm and regularity are the more important principles. There aren’t many basic systems in the NBA that can produce 6.8% returns. Continue to monitor this one as the season wears on, as perhaps it could change as more and more fatigue sets in during the March/April months.
Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #3
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Boston Celtics - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Miami Heat – One Day Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers – Two Days Rest
New York Knicks – One Day Rest
Denver Nuggets – One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans – One Day Rest
Washington Wizards – Two Days Rest
Dallas Mavericks – One Day Rest
Charlotte Hornets – Away/Away Back-to-Back
Phoenix Suns – One Day Rest
Los Angeles Clippers – One Day Rest
Los Angeles Lakers – One Day Rest
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Indiana Pacers.- Home/Away Back-to Back
Orlando Magic - One Day Rest
Denver Nuggets - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest
Minnesota Timberwolves - One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Home Back-to-Back
Washington Wizards - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Houston Rockets - One Day Rest
Utah Jazz - One Day Rest
Portland Trail Blazers - One Day Rest
Toronto Raptors - Two Days Rest
Sacramento Kings - One Day Rest
San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest
Los Angeles Lakers - Home/Home Back-to-Back
Thursday, January 26, 2023
New York Knicks - One Day Rest
Boston Celtics - One Day Rest
Detroit Pistons - Two Days Rest
Brooklyn Nets - Away/Home Back-to-Back
Chicago Bulls - One Day Rest
Charlotte Hornets - One Day Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest
Houston Rockets - Home/Home Back-to-Back
San Antonio Spurs - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Los Angeles Clippers - One Day Rest
Dallas Mavericks - One Day Rest
Phoenix Suns - One Day Rest
Friday, January 27, 2023
Toronto Raptors - One Day Rest
Golden State Warriors - One Day Rest
Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest
Indiana Pacers - One Day Rest
Memphis Grizzlies - One Day Rest
Minnesota Timberwolves - One Day Rest
Cleveland Cavaliers - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Oklahoma City Thunder - One Day Rest
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Los Angeles Lakers - Two Days Rest
Boston Celtics - One Day Rest
New York Knicks - One Day Rest
Brooklyn Nets - One Day Rest
Houston Rockets - One Day Rest
Detroit Pistons - One Day Rest
Sacramento Kings - Two Days Rest
Minnesota Timberwolves - Home/Home Back-to-Back
Chicago Bulls - One Day Rest
Orlando Magic - Away/Home Back-to-Back
Phoenix Suns - One Day Rest
San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Los Angeles Clippers - Away/Away Back-to-Back
Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest
Indiana Pacers - One Day Rest
Memphis Grizzlies - One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Away Back-to-Back
Milwaukee Bucks - One Day Rest
NBA Scheduling Scenario System #4
NBA home teams playing on at least two full days rest have gone 100-74 SU but 80-92-2 ATS (46.5%) for -21.2 units of loss and an R.O.I. of -12.2% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.
Steve’s thoughts: Contrary to popular belief, well-rested home teams have not performed up to par this season, as it seems the loss of rhythm from rest is affecting them. In fact, it affects these hosts more on the defensive end, as they are allowing nearly 5.0 PPG more when well-rested. This is also one to keep an eye on going forward. Longer rest periods do also arise often in the playoffs.
Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #4
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Chicago Bulls - Home/Away Back-To-Back
Indiana Pacers - Two Days Rest
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Brooklyn Nets - Two Days Rest
Philadelphia 76ers - 3+ Days Rest
Atlanta Hawks - One Day Rest
Oklahoma City Thunder - Two Days Rest
Memphis Grizzlies - One Day Rest
Golden State Warriors - Two Days Rest
Friday, January 27, 2023
Orlando Magic - One Day Rest
Miami Heat - Two Days Rest
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Los Angeles Clippers - One Day Rest
Atlanta Hawks - Two Days Rest
Washington Wizards - Two Days Rest
New Orleans Pelicans - Two Days Rest
Denver Nuggets - Two Days Rest
Philadelphia 76ers - Two Days Rest
Toronto Raptors - Away/Away Back-To-Back
Portland Trail Blazers - Two Days Rest
Dallas Mavericks - One Day Rest
Utah Jazz - Two Days Rest
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Miami Heat - One Day Rest
Charlotte Hornets - Two Days Rest
NBA Scheduling Scenario System #5
NBA home teams playing their second home game in as many nights have gone 40-18 SU and 35-21-2 ATS (62.5%) for +11.9 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 20.5% in the 2022-23 season in games through Monday, January 24th.
Steve’s thoughts: This would seem to be the ultimate rhythm scenario for a home team. Playing a second straight day on their home court. Obviously, they were able to spend the previous night and the game day at home. This doesn’t come up all that often on a team’s annual schedule, but when it does, the overall league success level should be noted.
Games through the weekend meeting criteria for system #5
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Minnesota Timberwolves - One Day Rest
New Orleans Pelicans - Home/Home Back-To-Back
San Antonio Spurs - One Day Rest
Los Angeles Lakers - Home/Home Back-To-Back
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Cleveland Cavaliers - One Day Rest
Houston Rockets - Home/Home Back-To-Back
Saturday, January 28, 2023
Sacramento Kings - Two Days Rest
Minnesota Timberwolves - Home/Home Back-To-Back
Summary
These scheduling systems show that there is much more to NBA betting than analyzing the strength of two teams in a game. In a long, arduous, 82-game regular season, how a team plays in various rest scenarios can go a long way in determining its postseason status. Be sure to acknowledge these scheduling situations the rest of the way, and utilize VSiN’s Daily Power Ratings page to find every game’s scenario.