In the Western Conference semifinals the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves clash with a berth in the Western Conference Finals on the line. Keep reading for a preview and prediction for this series. And make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Guide, which will serve as the hub for all of our postseason betting content!

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Preview

“Honestly, I would say our toughest series was Minnesota.”

 

Those are the words of former Denver Nuggets guard Bruce Brown last summer when asked about the toughest opponent on Denver’s path to the NBA Finals. A year later, Minnesota is better and deeper than it was when these two teams faced off in the postseason. There is no doubt that this should be a well-fought series that lasts longer than the five games we saw last season.

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Minnesota is constructed to face Denver. The Nuggets have a massive front line with Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. in the frontcourt. Each of them stand 6-foot-9 or taller, and their size has made them one of the better rebounding teams in the league. The Timberwolves have the bodies to match them up front with Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels, all of whom are 6-foot-9 or taller. 

That size the Timberwolves boast is also part of their biggest strength: defense. Minnesota led the league in non-garbage time defensive rating (108.9) this season. The gap between the Timberwolves and the second-best defensive team in the Magic was the same as the gap between Orlando and Memphis which finished 13th in defense.

In the regular season series the Timberwolves split with the Nuggets, but held them to 1.091 points per possession and posted a +5.7 net rating in the four games. In halfcourt settings Denver averaged just 90.7 points per 100 plays which is a halfcourt offensive rating that would have ranked 28th this season.

Still, the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic. In four games Jokic averaged 33.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 58.4% shooting from the floor and 40.0% shooting from deep. Even a potent defender like Gobert cannot stop Jokic, but what sticks out about his stat line is the assists. Only 4.3 assists per game is obviously much lower than the 9.1 assists Jokic averaged in the regular season. Minnesota might not have an answer for Jokic, but it does have an answer for the pieces around him, which is where this series might be won or lost.

The advantage the Nuggets have is on offense. Denver was fifth in non-garbage time offensive efficiency this season (119.1). It finished much higher than Minnesota, which was 16th in offense (116.1). There was also a stark contrast in how these teams operated in crunch time. In clutch minutes – games within five points in the final five minutes – the Nuggets were third in offense (122.7). The Timberwolves were 22nd (104.1). Should Minnesota struggle in clutch time as we saw throughout the season this series will be extremely tough to win.

DraftKings opened this series price with Denver as the -250 favorite and the market has pushed this down to -215 as of Tuesday morning. Just one series removed from those who shape the market turning on the Timberwolves, it is on them in this semifinal series.

It is right to do so.

Not only does Minnesota have a defensive gameplan that has worked in four games, but it is also the deeper team. Neither Naz Reid or McDaniels were available in the series last season. Monte Morris is now coming off the bench as well. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is now fully integrated after playing in just 23 games last season after the trade deadline. 

In the series with Los Angeles that just ended, Denver had a -8.4 net rating in the possessions without Jokic on the floor, according to Cleaning The Glass. They averaged 0.944 points per possession. Those bench minutes will make a massive difference in this series.

It might be hard to believe that a team like Minnesota – playing in the conference semifinals for the first time since 2004 – could upend the defending champion with the best player in the world, but it might be time to start believing.

Lean: Timberwolves to win series (+180)

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