NBA trends to ride rest of way

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It may come across as an overwhelming collection of data to some bettors, but the NBA Team Report information we publish in each issue of Point Spread Weekly is loaded with intriguing, eye-opening, profit-making material. I always sense that PSW readers are underutilizing some of these features. I like to highlight these pages from time to time, handpicking some of the most valuable nuggets. 

With college hoops having wrapped up, I assume most basketball enthusiasts will turn their attention that way as we approach the playoffs. With that in mind, here are some trends off the NBA Team Report that have defined some of the teams this season. Along with a brief explanation of some of these situational trend records, I’ve also put together a list of remaining regular-season games in which that trend will come into play.

Top NBA Team Reports Trends for 2021

BROOKLYN is just 10-20 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents in 2020-21, as opposed to 14-7 ATS against the West.

This has to be a concern for anyone who has invested in the Nets to win the East this summer. Considering that two of their main three players are of Western Conference pedigree, it might be somewhat explainable too. In any case, Brooklyn will need to survive serious challenges from the Bucks and/or 76ers to reach the Finals, teams that have fared much better in conference play.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/14: at Philadelphia

4/16: CHARLOTTE

4/18: at Miami

4/21:  at Toronto

4/23: BOSTON

4/27: at Toronto

4/29: at Indiana

5/2: at Milwaukee

5/4: at Milwaukee

5/11: at Chicago

5/15: CHICAGO

5/16: CLEVELAND 

CHARLOTTE is 7-1 SU and ATS against divisional opponents this season.

The Hornets have been a pleasant surprise this season and figure to be in the thick of the playoff race until the end. One of the reasons this franchise has improved in 2020-21 is its performance against divisional opponents. This was always a big key for majority owner Michael Jordan’s teams when he played, and he seems to have passed on the importance to his team.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/11: ATLANTA

5/2: MIAMI

5/7: ORLANDO

5/16: at Washington

CHICAGO is just 2-7 SU and ATS when playing with more than a single day of rest.

The Bulls are a younger club that seemingly doesn’t need or want rest as much as older clubs do. They have fared well on single-day rest at 19-9 ATS but have struggled when forced to sit longer. Unfortunately, there is only one more opportunity to fade Chicago on this trend, assuming no postponements allow for more.

Remaining game to use trend:

5/6: at Charlotte

DALLAS is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games.

The Mavericks have picked the season’s final full month to start making a run back toward the top of the Western Conference standings. As of Tuesday, they were only four games behind the No. 3 seed in the playoff race. Dallas’ recent surge has been a result of a renewed defensive effort, as the last four opponents have been held to 42% field-goal shooting or worse and just 96 points per game. If you look at the Top Head-to-head Trends page in this issue, you’ll also see that the coming week looks favorable for the Mavericks.

Next five games to use trend:

4/7: at Houston

4/8: MILWAUKEE

4/11: SAN ANTONIO

4/12: PHILADELPHIA

4/14: at Memphis

GOLDEN STATE is just 9-18 SU and ATS on the road this season, going Under the total in 18 of the games as well.

The comforts of home have truly benefited the Warriors this season, although they’ve proven quite road weary. They are scoring 6.2 points per game fewer on the road, and being outscored by 7.2 points per game. At home, they are a + 3.8 differential. That’s a swing of a full 11 points.

Upcoming games to use trend:

4/14: at Oklahoma City

4/15: at Cleveland

4/17: at Boston

4/19: at Philadelphia

4/21: at Washington

4/29: at Minnesota

5/1: at Houston

5/3: at New Orleans

5/4: at New Orleans

HOUSTON has been brutal on single-day rest, going just 7-29 SU and 8-28 ATS this season.

The Rockets’ season has been a nightmare, and nothing describes it better than this trend, especially since most games in 2020-21 have been on one day of rest. In fact, Houston has played 36 of its 50 games in this rest scenario. This trend doesn’t figure to turn around in the final month of a season that is essentially being tanked. Only oddsmakers’ overzealousness could save it.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/7: DALLAS

4/9: LA Clippers

4/12: at Phoenix

4/14: INDIANA

4/16: DENVER

4/18: at Orlando

4/21: UTAH

4/23: LA CLIPPERS

4/29: MILWAUKEE

5/1: GOLDEN STATE

5/7: at Milwaukee

5/10: at Portland

5/12: at LA Lakers

5/14: LA CLIPPERS

5/16: at Atlanta

LA CLIPPERS have thrived in every rest scenario other than single-day rest, going 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in all other situations.

This is an unusual trend in that the Clippers are just 17-16 SU and 14-18 ATS in the single-day rest scenario. They have been remarkably strong the rest of the time. A point of concern, the playoffs figure to offer up a lot of play/rest/play scheduling spots

Remaining games to use trend:

4/9: HOUSTON

4/14: at Detroit

4/21: MEMPHIS

4/26: at New Orleans

5/1: DENVER

5/4: TORONTO

5/9: NEW YORK

5/14: at Houston

LA LAKERS are 17-5 Under the total on the road in 2020-21.

The Lakers actually boast a better won-lost mark on the road this season than at home, and perhaps it's because they aren’t getting into as many high-scoring games when away. At home their games are producing 218.5 points per game. On the road, the total points have been only 212.7 PPG. That almost a six-point difference hasn’t been picked up by oddsmakers as the Lakers continue to produce Unders. 

Remaining games to use trend:

4/8: at Miami

4/10: at Brooklyn

4/12: at New York

4/13: at Charlotte

4/22: at Dallas

4/24: at Dallas

4/26: at Orlando

4/28: at Washington

5/6: at LA Clippers

5/7: at Portland

5/15: at Indiana

5/16: at New Orleans

MEMPHIS is 25-13 ATS when playing with any rest.

The Grizzlies have been a point-spread-covering machine in 2020-21, and in fact, the only rest scenario when they haven’t thrived has been in the second game of a back-to-back. They are 3-5 SU and ATS there. Otherwise, they are clicking at a 65.8% ATS rate. Until something changes, feel secure in backing Memphis in these remaining games to achieve profits.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/9: at New York

4/11: INDIANA

4/14: DALLAS

4/16: at Chicago

4/19: at Denver

4/21: at LA Clippers

4/23: at Portland

4/25: at Portland

4/28: PORTLAND

4/30: ORLANDO

5/3: NEW YORK

5/5: at Minnesota

5/8: at Toronto

5/10: NEW ORLEANS

5/13: SACRAMENTO

5/16: at Golden State

NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 Over the total at home this season.

This is a somewhat strange trend and could be an anomaly when you consider the point production differences between home and road. At home, the Pelicans’ games are producing a combined 2.6 more PPG than on the road. Yet the difference is 20-6 Over versus 12-10 OVER. Tough to explain, but 77% trends are good finds nonetheless.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/9: PHILADELPHIA

4/12: SACRAMENTO

4/14: NEW YORK

4/20: BROOKLYN

4/24: SAN ANTONIO

4/26: LA CLIPPERS

5/3: GOLDEN STATE

5/4: GOLDEN STATE

5/16: LA LAKERS

PHILADELPHIA is 26-14 ATS when playing in any rest scenario other than second of back-to-back games.

The 76ers are good with rest. Simply put. We’ve all been witness to the impact that Joel Embiid has for this team when he’s on the court. Typically, Philly doesn’t like to play him, even when healthy, on the back end of consecutive games. The trend above is not coincidental. There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this find the rest of the way.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/9: at New Orleans

4/12: at Dallas

4/14: BROOKLYN

4/16: LA CLIPPERS

4/19: GOLDEN STATE

4/21: PHOENIX

4/24: at Milwaukee

4/26: OKLAHOMA CITY

4/28: ATLANTA

4/30: ATLANTA

5/2: at San Antonio

5/5: at Houston

5/7: NEW ORLEANS

5/11: at Indiana

5/13: at Miami

5/16: ORLANDO

TORONTO has been awful in anything but the single-day rest scenario, going 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS.

The Raptors have been among the biggest disappointments in the 2020-21 season and are likely to miss the playoffs after being a top Eastern Conference threat for much of the last decade. It’s not that big of a surprise considering this franchise was displaced by the city of Toronto for the season. That said, if they only played on single-day rest scheduling, they’d be fine, as they are 16-14 SU and ATS. It's in all other scenarios that they stink.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/11: at New York

4/14: SAN ANTONIO

4/21: BROOKLYN

4/24: at New York

4/27: BROOKLYN

5/2: at LA Lakers

5/11: LA CLIPPERS

5/14: at Dallas

UTAH has been the best home team in the league in 2020-21, going 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS.

The Jazz seem poised to cruise the rest of the way toward the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage in the West playoffs. That would prove to be a highly beneficial spot for them, as they’ve been the best home team in the NBA this season. Covering 75% of their home games, at this point it would be crazy to step in front of this train as a bettor.

Remaining games to use trend:

4/8: PORTLAND

4/10: SACRAMENTO

4/12: WASHINGTON

4/13: OKLAHOMA CITY

4/16: INDIANA

4/24: MINNESOTA

5/1: TORONTO

5/3: SAN ANTONIO

5/5: SAN ANTONIO

5/7: DENVER

5/8: HOUSTON

5/12: PORTLAND

 

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