NBA Title Odds Update and Monday MLB Sharp Report

May 17, 2021 12:40 AM

The NBA regular season came to a conclusion on Sunday and now the playoff format is set. In the Eastern Conference play-in tournament, the Hornets will face the Pacers (-3) and the Wizards face the Celtics (-2). In the Western Conference, the Spurs will take on the Grizzlies (-3) and the Warriors will meet the Lakers (-7). 

Here are the updated NBA futures odds at BetMGM entering the postseason.

To win the East

Nets -110

76ers + 300

Bucks + 375

Heat + 1200

Hawks + 3000

Knicks + 3500

Celtics + 4000

Wizards + 5000

Hornets + 15000

Pacers + 20000

To win the West

Lakers + 200

Clippers + 260

Jazz + 325

Suns + 700

Nuggets + 1400

Mavericks + 1600

Balzers + 2500

Warriors + 5000

Grizzlies + 12500

To win the NBA Title

Nets + 225

Lakers + 425

Clippers + 600

76ers, Jazz + 750

Bucks + 900

Suns + 1600

Nuggets, Heat + 3000

Mavericks + 4000

Hawks, Blazers + 6600

Warriors + 8000

Celtics, Knicks + 10000

Wizards + 15000

Hornets, Grizzlies + 25000

Pacers, Spurs + 50000

A new week begins with a smaller than usual slate featuring 9 MLB games and 3 NHL playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

7:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (16-20) at Chicago Cubs (19-20)

Both of these NL non-division foes are coming off series wins. The Nats just took two of three at the Diamondbacks and the Cubs just took two of three at the Tigers. In tonight's series opener, the Nationals hand the ball to lefty Jon Lester (0-1, 2.25 ERA) and the Cubs counter with righty Adbert Alzolay (1-3, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a modest -125 home favorite and the Nats a + 115 road dog. Respected money has come down hard on the Cubs, steaming Chicago from -125 to -145. Home teams receiving 10+ cents of steam in their favor are 58-39 (60%) this season. Teams receiving 15-cents or more of steam and are coming off a win are 54-38 (59%). The Cubs have done well against lefties this season, posting a 9-3 record (only 10-17 against righties). Chicago is 13-8 at home this season. The Nats are 7-10 on the road. The Cubs are 10-8 as a favorite. The Nats are 6-14 as a dog. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast calls for high 50s and wind blowing in from right field at 10 MPH at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Washington 23-12-1 and Chicago 21-17-1. 

9:38 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (21-17) at Los Angeles Angels (17-22)

Both of these teams are looking to bounce back from road series losses. The Indians just dropped three of four at Seattle and the Angels just lost two of three at Boston. In tonight's series opener, the Indians start lefty Sam Hentges (1-0, 3.29 ERA) and the Angels hand the ball to fellow southpaw Patrick Sandoval (0-0, 6.14 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -125 home favorite and Cleveland a + 115 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to grab the plus money with the Indians since they are the "better" team. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Los Angeles move from -125 to -135. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the contrarian favorites Angels, with pros fading the trendy dog Indians. Home teams receiving 10+  cents of steam in a non-division game are 58-39 (60%) this season. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total is 9 with some books juicing up the over to -115. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The Angeles will rely on their bats in this one. Los Angeles is hitting .250 this season, which ranks 5th in MLB. Cleveland is hitting .209, which ranks 29th. 

 

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