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NBA Short Favorites and Tuesday MLB Sharp Report

May 4, 2021 12:13 AM

So far this NBA season we've seen favorites go 491-471 ATS (51%). However, despite the slightly winning record you would be down a few units due to paying the juice. The key is playing the short favorites (-3 or less). These teams are 151-130 (53.7%), good for roughly + 14 units won this season. If the favorite is -3.5 or more, they are dead-even 338-338 (50%), but down roughly -16 units. 

The ultimate spot is short favorites -3 or less that see the line move at least a half-point in their favor. These teams are 81-59 ATS (57.9%). The movement is key because it signals some respected money backing the home favorite and forcing oddsmakers to adjust the number. 

Bettors are graced with another stacked menu today, including 17 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 5 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from Noon-2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (15-12) at Cincinnati Reds (13-14)

This Interleague showdown features two teams coming off opposite homestands. The White Sox just dropped two of three to the Indians while the Reds won two of three against the Cubs. In tonight's series opener, the White Sox start righty Dylan Cease (1-0, 2.96 ERA) while the Reds counter with fellow righty Jeff Hoffan (2-1, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a short -120 road favorite and Cincinnati a + 110 home dog. The public is all over the White Sox as they have a better record and are laying a short price. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen Chicago fall from -120 to -115. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Reds, with respected money grabbing the plus-money with the home dog (+ 110 to + 100). The Reds have value as a dog off a win, a dog with a high total (9) and a contrarian home dog with a line move in their favor. "Sweet Spot" dogs + 140 or less are 108-109 (59.8%) but have produced + 16 units won. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (12-16) at Washington Nationals (12-12)

These NL East rivals are trending in completely different directions as of late. The Braves have lost four straight games and just got swept at Toronto. Meanwhile, the resurgent Nats have won four straight and just swept the Marlins at home. In tonight's series opener, the Braves hand the ball to righty Huascar Ynoa (2-1, 2.96 ERA) and the Nats send out fellow righty Joe Ross (2-1, 4.64 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as -125 road favotes and the Nats a + 115 home dog. The public is all over the Nats gettng plus money at home as a team that is playing much better baseball lately. However, pros smell a rat. If the Braves are the "worse" team, then why are they favored? Pros smell a rat. Despite a majority of bets backing the Nats, we've seen this line move further toward Atlanta (-125 to -130). This signals some sharp contrarian favorite action on the Braves with respected money fading the trendy dog Nats. 

7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (13-17) at Minnesota Twins (11-16)

The Twins took care of business in Monday's series opener, beating the Rangers 6-5 as hefty -175 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Rangers give the ball to veteran righty Kyle Gibson (3-0, 2.16 ERA) and the Twins tap veteran lefty J.A. Happ (2-0, 1.96 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -145 home favorite and Texas a + 125 dog. Respected money isn't scared off by the expensive price and has gotten down on the Twins, pushing this line up from Minnesota -145 to -155. Home teams in non-division games with at least 10-cents of steam in their favor are 39-25 (61%) this season. Non-division favorites in the "Sweet Spot" of -150 to -175 are 26-9 (74.3%). The Twins also have value as a favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. 

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