NBA Playoffs: Daily best bets, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 2nd

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

May 2, 2023 10:42 AM


Welcome to your source of daily analysis of the NBA Playoffs! Here we will break down each game, discuss betting angles, give predictions and more. For more discussion make sure to check out our daily NBA betting podcast: Hardwood Handicappers.

Also make sure to use each one of our betting tools at the disposal of VSiN Pro subscribers!

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Miami Heat at New York Knicks (-5.5, 209.5)

Game 2: Heat lead series 1-0

Unfortunately this game is a regular season game disguised as a postseason affair. This one is all about the information. Jimmy Butler is questionable to play with his ankle injury for Miami, and both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson are questionable for New York. All three are impactful players who can alter a point spread for a single game, so until there is clarity on their status it would not be wise for anyone to jump in pre-flop.

Having said that, if there were a gamble to take it would be on the Knicks. There are three days between this game and Game 3 back in Miami. Since the Heat took the first game in this series homecourt is now theirs, and they can afford to drop this second game with the next two games taking place on their court. If there was a team that would push their stars to tough out an injury it would be the Knicks, who cannot afford to hit the road down two games. Randle worked out prior to being ruled out on Sunday, and could be closer to a return two days later. Brunson is dealing with ankle soreness, and will likely play through it as well.

Again, this is an absolute gamble with no real information, but the quotes coming out of Miami’s practice on Monday were those of a team preparing to play without its best player. If that is the case, and both Randle and Brunson play, this is likely closing -7 or higher. It is not a bet I will be making, but it's the smartest one to make if you’re going to this early in the day.

Lean: Knicks (-6.5)

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-4, 228)

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

As discussed in my series preview, I believe that Golden State will win this series. However, this is not the best situation for the defending champions. The Warriors needed seven games to oust the Kings, and now it begins a series on just one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been resting for three days while waiting for their opponent to be decided.

Situation aside, the basketball breakdown does favor Golden State. The Warriors have the edge when it comes to 3-point shooting as a team which takes over 40% of its attempts from beyond the arc while leading the regular season in shooting percentage as a team (39.1%). The quiet aspect of their series win over the Kings was their play defensively. Golden State limited the league’s best offense to just 110.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and could defend at a high level here against Los Angeles, which is coming off a series in which it put up a 111.7 offensive rating while shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc.

Again, the situation favors the Lakers, but even then one can poke holes in that theory. The Warriors might have needed seven games to beat their opponent, but a comfortable second half meant only 38 minutes for Stephen Curry and no other player surpassed that minute total. Perhaps we see an effect in the second half, but as someone who believe in Golden State in this series there is no reason for me to truly come off that. 

Best Bet: Warriors (-4)

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