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Game 4: Heat lead series 3-0
If you are someone who has believed in this Miami Heat team since the beginning of the postseason you have been cleaning up. The Heat are 12-4 ATS since the play-in round, and they have covered by an average of 8.7 points per game which is the best margin among playoff teams by a mile. It has been a great run up to this point, but for those who have been riding the train it might be time to step off.
The market has finally adjusted the power rating on Miami, and in a big way. After closing as 4.5-point underdogs on Sunday night the market has flipped this line to 1.5 in favor of the home team. Given the run this team has been on, an adjustment was clearly necessary, but that means the value is gone for the Heat when it comes to playing them. Put simply: On Sunday the market thought Boston was about 7.5 points better on a neutral court, but today that is down to a 1.5-point difference.
That does not mean I am running to bet the Celtics here. All the numbers in the world can’t quantify a team’s emotional state, and it would seem this Boston team is all but done. From mannerisms on the sideline during games, to quotes in press conferences afterwards, it would seem the Celtics are ready for this series to end. That is not a team I am running to back.
Much like previous games in both conference finals, I will have my buy price. Should the market get to -3 for Miami or better then I will bite. Having those buy points is a great way to take advantage of the market’s overreactions, as we have learned in the last four postseason games. Should the line climb then I will have no choice, but for right now I am sitting on the sidelines.
Lean: Celtics (+1.5)