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Game 6: Heat lead series 3-2
Miami is in a good situation to close this series out tonight, but the market seems to be overcompensating for that situation. This line is as high as 6.5 at a few shops, which is a two-point adjustment from the closing lines in the first two games in South Beach. How much are bettors willing to pay when it comes to playing into a situation?
The angle here should be to find a cheaper number in-game, and with such a low total there should be an opportunity to do just that.
New York needed 48 minutes and 38 points on 12-of-22 shooting from Jalen Brunson to get by at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. That sort of performance is unlikely to repeat itself on the road, and Immanuel Quickley continues to deal with an ankle injury that has him listed as doubtful. Should the Knicks suffer the usual dip in production that comes from role players when playing away from home the probability of them winning this game dips even lower. However, none of that is worth a 2.5-point adjustment.
Lean: None
Game 6: Lakers lead series 3-2
Perhaps the market was finally bending to the will of the almighty corgi which has predicted the results of the first five games of this series perfectly, but it was surprising to see a low opening number for Los Angeles.
Anthony Davis did suffer a head injury on Wednesday night, but he never entered concussion protocol and is listed as probable to play tonight. The injury of consequence is on the Golden State side, where Andrew Wiggins is questionable with fractured rib cartilage. If there was an injury to factor into the line that would be the one, but the market refused to do so.
Wiggins is expected to play, but he obviously will not be operating at full health. Bettors can expect a high frequency of LeBron James post-ups on Wiggins in an effort to test that fracture, and Wiggins’ ability to withstand the banging down low. There is also a question as to whether Wiggins can shoot effectively or not. He is shooting 37.5% on 3-point attempts in this series, and a rib injury can certainly hurt the ability to hit jumpshots.
It pains me to say, but the value here is on Los Angeles. If Davis is playing and Wiggins is injured, the current number is not factoring in the Wiggins injury enough. Once he is ruled active this line will likely close 2.5 or better and those who did not get in on the best number will be able to at some point today.
Best Bet: Lakers (-2.5)