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Game 6: Warriors lead series 3-2
Golden State can close Sacramento out tonight with a win, but that does not mean the Warriors will cover. However, given what we saw from the Kings’ offense on Wednesday night, it seems very likely that the home team can do just that.
The shooting woes for Sacramento have persisted throughout this series, and now that De’Aaron Fox has a bad finger on his shooting hand those issues do not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. The Kings have shot just 33.0% on wide-open 3-pointers in this series, and 30.1% overall. There could be some regression to the mean coming, but it is not guaranteed to happen in this series, as evidenced by Miami’s hot shooting in the win over Milwaukee.
Furthermore, Fox’s efficiency really started to dip as Game 5 progressed. He ended up with 24 points, but on 9-of-25 shooting and he went 3-of-10 from distance. With their best player hampered by injury the Kings’ likelihood of extending this series is minimal.
The market has pushed this line up somewhat, but only by the hook. Given the situation of Golden State having a close out opportunity at home against a team whose best player is injured, I think it can be beneficial for some to look at some alternate lines here. This number is equal to the first two games in San Francisco, but the difference is an unhealthy Fox which has not been factored into the market enough.
Best Bet: Warriors (-9.5, +115)
Game 6: Lakers lead series 3-2
Los Angeles fell into the trap of losing a close out game on the road on Wednesday, and that makes this a must-win of sorts for the Lakers. A loss and a return trip to Memphis would certainly seal the fate of Los Angeles when it comes to this series.
Offense in this series has been at a premium. The Lakers have averaged only 109.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and the Grizzlies are putting up 108.2 themselves. One of the biggest factors in this lack of offense has been the poor shooting. Los Angeles is shooting just 30.1% from beyond the arc, and Memphis is not much better at 31.1%. If one team were to have an edge though, it would be the Grizzlies.
Memphis is shooting just 31.5% on wide-open 3-point attempts in this series. Hitting at such a low rate on uncontested 3-point shots is obviously massive, but it is magnified for the Grizzlies because they have generated the most wide-open 3-point attempts (111) of any team in the playoffs. It is unlikely that the regression to the mean happens for Memphis on the road, where role players tend to struggle, but there is certainly a chance they wake up for a game, shoot the lights out and extend the series for one more contest.
However, Los Angeles has been great defensively, especially down low. They have limited Memphis to just 58.7% shooting at the rim and 74.9 points per 100 plays in halfcourt settings in the two games at The Crypt. I have a series bet on the Lakers, so there is no best bet for me here, but I do believe they close it out tonight.
Lean: Lakers (-4.5)