NBA playoff matchups and title odds plus Thursday Sharp Report for Nats-Mets, Padres-Dodgers

August 13, 2020 12:51 AM

One day after favorites went 6-1 ATS, NBA underdogs bounced back with a 3-1 ATS showing on Wednesday, including two straight-up victories. The Pacers (+ 6.5) took down the Rockets 108-104 while the Thunder (+ 4) shocked the Heat 116-115. The other dog cover was the 76ers (+ 6), who lost 125-121 to the Raptors but covered the spread. The lone favorite to cover was the Clippers (-5) over the Nuggets 124-111. Overs had another profitable night, going 3-1. Overs improved to roughly 56% in the bubble. 

We have two more days of regular-season basketball, including today and Friday. Bettors should tread lightly over the next 48 hours. With so many teams either eliminated or having wrapped up their playoff seed, there are so many unknowns in terms of who will play and who will rest. Differing motivations make for far more questions than answers. This creates headaches and makes capping games that much harder.

For example, last night the Nuggets (+ 5) held a 92-90 lead over the Clippers at the end of the 3rd quarter. Denver was in a prime position to cover and possibly win outright. But then head coach Mike Malone decided to rest his starters in the 4th quarter. The Clippers proceeded to outscore the Nuggets 34-19 in the final frame and win 124-111. These are the sort of unknown variables that can ruin an otherwise smart bet. 

In the same vein, condolences go out to anyone who laid the points with the Heat. They opened -1.5 and closed -4 against the Thunder. Miami led by 22 points in the 4th quarter, only to lose 116-115. Early in the 4th quarter, OKC had a 0.2% win probability according to ESPN. And of course, they won.

On the bright side, we have almost every playoff series finalized. Here are the matchups. The Lakers will play either the Blazers, Grizzlies, Suns or Spurs.











Here are the latest NBA title odds at BetMGM

Bucks + 260

Lakers + 280

Clippers + 325

Rockets, Raptors + 1100

Celtics + 1800

Heat + 2000

Nuggets + 2500

76ers + 3500

Mavs + 4000

Blazers, Jazz + 5000

Pacers, Thunder + 8000

Spurs + 20000

Nets, Grizzlies, Magic, Sun + 25000

Today we have a lighter than usual slate with 7 NBA games, 4 NHL games and only 6 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving sharp action from respected bettors. 

For an updated breakdown of Thursday#39;s betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET. 

I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

1:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (6-8) at New York Mets (8-11)

The Mets came up huge for wiseguys last night, defeating the Nats 11-6. New York opened as a + 105 dog and received less than 50% of tickets but got steamed all the way to -127 in the final hours before gametime. This dog-to-favorite late movement was a dead giveaway that pros were in their favor. Remember, late moves are most meaningful because that's when limits are raised and pros get down hardest. In today's series finale, Washington sends Austin Voth (0-1, 1.80 ERA) to the mound to face Mets lefty David Peterson (2-1, 3.78 ERA). New York opened as a short -115 home favorite with Washington listed as a + 105 dog. The public is split and doesn't know which side to take. But smart money has come down on the Mets, pushing New York up to -125. Some books are closer to -130. Favorites at cashing at roughly a 62% clip this season. 

9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (11-8) at Los Angeles Dodgers (12-7)

After a pair of upset wins by the Padres to start the series, the Dodgers clawed back last night, winning 6-0 as a -170 favorite. Today's series finale offers a stellar pitching matchup with the Padres starting phenom Chris Paddack (2-1, 3.18 ERA) against Dodgers southpaw and fellow youngster Julio Urias (1-0, 2.40 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -140 favorite and San Diego a + 130 dog. The public says the Dodgers are the better team and can't possibly lose three of four to San Diego. However, despite the public loading up Los Angeles, we've seen this line dip slightly away from LA (-140 to -135) and toward SD (+ 130 to + 125). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Padres, who also have value as a road divisional dog with a high total (8.5).

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states

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