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NBA Finals Late Series Betting Trends

By Steve Makinen  () 

The NBA Finals have reached a Game 6 for the 13th time in the last 23 seasons. Toronto will attempt to close out Golden State on Thursday night in Oakland. Should the Warriors force a Game 7, it would be just the fifth time that has happened in that same time span. Let’s take a look quickly at some NBA Finals Late Series Betting Trends.

SCORING TRENDS

92 points remains a low benchmark for NBA Finals

late series success – keeping in line with what we saw earlier for the Finals overall, teams that score 92 points or less in a Game 6 or 7 have struggled, going just 6-12 SU & ATS over the L22 seasons. Success accompanies reaching the 93-point mark – NBA Finals teams in Games 6 or 7 scoring 93 points or more boast a record of 10-5 SU & ATS over the L22 seasons. This is a very low mark, and considering the nature of how the game has changed in recent years and the pace at which this year’s teams play, both teams are likely to eclipse the 93-point mark.

GENERAL TRENDS

Home teams win more but road teams cover – Hosts in the NBA Finals Game 6s & 7s are 10-6 SU but 6-10 ATS since ’97.

TRENDS BY LINE RANGE

Big home favorites are a risky wager - Since the start of the ’97 playoffs, NBA Finals Game 6 or 7 home favorites of 6 points or more are 6-2 SU but just 2-6 ATS. These have proven to be very competitive games with only one of the eight being decided by more than 10 points.

Small home favorites/underdogs have also been vulnerable – The record of the L8 small home favorites/underdogs (-5.5 points or less) in the NBA Finals Game 6 & 7 is just 4-4 SU & ATS.

TRENDS BY GAME NUMBER

Momentum has been a big factor in Games

5-7 – The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a win in a NBA Finals game are 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in Games 5-7 of a series after Golden State’s win Monday.

Game 6 Home Court Advantage means little – Home teams in Game 6 of the NBA Finals are on a 7-5 SU & 4-8 ATS slide.

Game 7 Home Teams have been better in low scoring tilts – Home teams in Game 7 of the NBA Finals are on a 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS run. All four of those games EASILY went UNDER the total, averaging 170.5 PPG on totals set at 188.4.

TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER

(note that this year’s Finals matches a #2 in Toronto versus a #1 in Golden State)

#2 seeds struggle against the #1 – In the last four NBA Finals series’ Game 6s or 7s featuring a #1 seed versus a #2, the #1 is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.

TRENDS BY TEAMS CLOSING OUT SERIES’ OR FACING ELIMINATION

Road teams looking to close out in Game 6 have been solid – In the L7 games where the road team was looking to close out in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, those teams are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS, winning outright three times as underdogs. The last four such games also went OVER the total.

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