NBA Draft Top 5 Pick Odds, Plus Monday MLB Sharp Report

July 26, 2021 01:17 AM

The 2021 NBA Draft takes place this Thursday night (8 p.m. ET) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. While it may not be as extravagant as the NFL Draft, there are still opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on Draft prop bets. Here are the latest odds at BetMGM for the first five picks...

1st Pick: Cade Cunningham -5000

Cunningham is all but a lock to go first overall to the Detroit Pistons. His implied probability is 98%. However, the price is so high that there is really no value to betting Cunningham in this spot. Simply put, you have to risk so much and get so little in return that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. The only real value on Cunningham was jumping on the OK State product weeks and months ago when he opened as a -500 favorite. 

2nd Pick: Jalen Green -200

We've seen a big shift toward Green in recent weeks. Over the past few days in particular, Green has moved from -160 to -200. This translates to a 67% implied probability that he goes 2nd overall to the Rockets. Green, 19, skipped college and played for the G-League Unite last season, averaging 17.9 PPG against grown men and NBA-level competition.  

3rd Pick: Evan Mobley -175

Mobley has emerged as the favorite to go 3rd overall to the Cavaliers. The 7-foot big man, 20, averaged 16.4 PPG as a freshman at USC, leading the Trojans to a deep NCAA Tournament run. The Cavs have devoted lottery picks to guards in recents years (Collin Sexton and Darius Garland) and the speculation is that they prefer Mobley as a big-man "twin tower" duo with fellow big Jarrett Allen. 

4th Pick: Jalen Suggs -160

Suggs, 20, seems like a perfect fit for the Raptors at 4th overall. The dynamic Gonzaga freshman averaged 14.4 PPG last season, leading the Zags to the National Championship Game. With the Raptors possibly losing Kyle Lowry in free agency, the young Suggs could be an ideal replacement at guard to build around moving forward. 

5th Pick: Scottie Barnes -135

While the top four picks seem pretty set, the 5th pick is a little less predictable. The slight favorite is Barnes, 19, of Florida State. He only averaged 9.8 PPG as a freshman for the Seminoles, but turned it on late in the year. If it isn't Barnes, the Magic could also be eyeing Jonathan Kuminga. He has the second best odds to go 5th overall at + 110. Kuminga, 18, also skipped college to enter the G-League, averaging 15.8 PPG. 

Draft odds can vary greatly depending on the sportsbook. As always, be sure to shop around and place your bet and the book that gives you the best odds. 

Now it's on to Monday, where a new week begins with 9 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Ben Wilson on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games tonight...

5:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (48-50) at New York Mets (52-44)

This is Game 1 of a Monday doubleheader between two NL East rivals. Atlanta just split a four game series with the Phillies while the Mets just took two of three from the Blue Jays. Atlanta trails New York by five games in the division. In tonight's series opener, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Kyle Muller (1-3, 3.20 ERA) and the Mets counter with righty Marcus Stroman (7-8, 2.59 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and Atlanta a + 140 road dog. Sharps seem to be leaning on the Mets, as we've seen New York rise from -150 to -160. Home favorites off a win have gone 342-218 (61.1%) this season. The Mets have one of the best home records in baseball, going 30-15 at Citi Field. The Braves are 22-25 on the road. New York is 34-22 as a favorite, including 23-11 as a home favorite. There also appears to be some under action here. Some books opened the Game 1 doubleheader with a total of 7 and have quickly fallen to 6.5. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (61-39) at Seattle Mariners (54-46)

Both of these AL West rivals enter on hot streaks. The Astros just swept the Rangers and the Mariners just took three of four against the Athletics. In tonight's series opener, Houston starts Luis Garcia (7-5, 2.86 ERA) and Seattle sends out fellow righty Darren McCaughan (0-0, 1.80 ERA). McCaughan will be making his second MLB appearance. This line opened with Houston listed as a -165 road favorite and Seattle a + 150 home dog. Both Pros and Joes are backing the Astros, which has driven Houston up from -165 to -175. The Astros have dominated play inside their division, going 28-13 (68.3%) against fellow AL West opponents. Houston will lean on their advantage at the plate. The Astros are hitting .265, which ranks 1st in MLB. Seattle is hitting .218, which ranks 30th and dead last. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. Unders have been a profitable bet at T-Mobile Stadium, going 30-21-2 (58.8%). 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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