NBA Draft Odds Movement and Thursday MLB Sharp Report

July 29, 2021 12:09 AM

Happy NBA Draft Day! The 2021 Draft takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Cade Cunningham of Oklahoma State remains a massive -5000 favorite to be drafted first overall at BetMGM (98% implied probability). However, the line is so high that there is really no value to betting Cunningham at this point. You have to risk so much to get so little in return that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. 

Instead, here are some more affordable props that have taken in notable line movement over the past 24-hours...

2nd Pick: Jalen Green -200 to -400

3rd Pick: Evan Mobley -175 to -275

4th Pick: Jalen Suggs -160 to -200

5th Pick: Scottie Barnes -135 to -250

Exact Order: 1. Cunningham, 2. Green, 3. Mobley -250 to -400

Aside from the Draft, we also have 11 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update and co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action leading up to the Draft. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a pair of MLB games today...

1:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (53-47) at Tampa Bay Rays (60-42)

The Yankees have come up huge for sharps so far this series, winning both games as contrarian underdogs. New York won the opener 4-3 as + 125 road dogs and won again on Wednesday 3-1 as + 120 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (10-5, 2.74 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Luis Patino (1-2, 5.26 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -140 road favorite and Tampa bay a + 130 home dog. The public is all over the Yankees with their ace on the mound. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Bronx Bombers fall from -140 to -135. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Rays (+ 130 to + 125). Tampa Bay has value as a contrarian divisional dog. Home dogs have gone 245-290 this season, only cashing at a 45.8% clip but producing roughly + 20 units due to the plus money payouts. We could also be looking at another low scoring game. The total opened at 8 and sharp under money has dropped it to 7.5. The under is 2-0 so far this series. Historically, unders have been a smart bet in domes or closed roof stadiums as the ball doesn't travel and the conditions are perfect for pitchers and fielders. 

2:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (60-42) at Kansas City Royals (44-56)

The Royals have won two of the first three games in this series, including a 3-2 walkoff win in extra innings last night as + 160 home dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, the White Sox start lefty Carlos Rodon (8-4, 2.24 ERA) and the Royals send out righty Carlos Hernandez (1-1, 6.04 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a hefty -170 road favorite and Kansas City a + 160 home dog. Pros and Joes are both united in favor of Chicago and expect a bounce back win with a big starting pitching advantage. This lopsided support has driven the South Siders up from -170 to -180. The White Sox are 27-14 (65.9%) following a loss this season. Chicago is 52-24 as a favorite this season. Kansas City is 22-40 as a dog. Sharps are also eyeing a lower scoring game. The total opened at 10 and the under is being juiced to -115. It looks like it might even be trending down to 9.5. The under is 3-0 so far this series. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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