NBA betting market report: Picks, advice for Christmas Day


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Christmas Day

Good morning everyone and Merry Christmas! I hope you’re all having an incredible holiday, and hopefully this column can make it better with some insight that leads you toward some winners. Sadly, a couple of these games have been ruined by COVID, and that is reflected in the change in these numbers. It should still be a great slate, and we have NFL action today too!

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-1.5, 219.5)

Ten players, including Trae Young, are in COVID protocol for Atlanta, and for that reason New York is a considerable favorite here. Along with Young on the sideline are Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams. Delon Wright figures to start at point guard alongside Bogdan Bogdanovic at shooting guard which is a lineup configuration that has a -1.1 net rating, but over an infinitesimal sample size. John Collins will be available and with those two in his backcourt the Hawks have a + 9.2 net rating, so not all is lost for Atlanta tonight. New York will be without Nerlens Noel and Derrick Rose, but the Knicks will be able to roll out most of its regular rotation which should be a massive advantage here. However, there is not much positive data to back that up. When Alec Burks and Julius Randle are on the floor together the Knicks are outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions. Should Kemba Walker start at point guard beside those two the net rating drops to -9.9 and their defense gives up 115.3 points per 100 possessions. Replace Walker with RJ Barrett, who is available this morning, and that net rating is -16.5 per 100 possessions! In short, the Knicks are a flawed team I would rather stay away from laying a number with. They are 3-8 SU and ATS for a reason in December, and should this number get to -7 or higher I will be sweating out an ugly underdog on Christmas morning.

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