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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice Monday 1/24


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, January 24th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 203)

Cleveland comes into this contest on a 6-1 SU run, but their 3-3-1 ATS record over the same stretch indicates the market might be too high on the Cavaliers’ power rating. Cleveland continues to put forth great play on defense, but the offense showed its limitations in the win over Oklahoma City on Saturday when it put up 0.979 points per possession. In that win they lost Lauri Markkanen to an ankle sprain which is a blow for this team. With Markkanen on the floor the Cavaliers’ offensive rating improves by 7.1 points every 100 possessions, and he is a decent rebounder who has grabbed 3.9% of his team’s missed shots this season. These two teams have not met since the beginning of November, and in that contests it was the Knicks that were 7.5-point favorites. This time around the market opened very high on Cleveland, posting this 7.5 line overnight, but most openers were -6 in favor of the Cavaliers. Shooting will be the most important factor in this contest tonight. Cleveland is the best rim defense in the league, allowing opponents to shoot just 57.9% within four feet of the basket. New York takes 32.4% of its shots at the rim and shoots just 61.7% from that area of the floor, so it’s safe to say the perimeter shots need to go down for the Knickerbockers tonight. They take 39.1% of their attempts from 3-point range and shoot 36.4% as a team. That was on display on Sunday morning in a wire-to-wire win over the Clippers when they hit 16-of-34 3-pointers. Kemba Walker is back tonight as well, and with him on the floor the Knicks’ 3-point frequency jumps by 4.0% so the attempts will be there. Most of the line movement has already occurred on this number, but if the move continues I would expect it would be in the direction of the Knicks as 5.5 is already starting to appear.

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