NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice Monday 11/22


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, November 22nd

It is a big card tonight so let’s not waste any time.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Brooklyn Nets (-7.5, 207.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Brooklyn might be winning games, but the team is barely getting by and as a result it’s been a losing proposition to wager on the Nets regularly. Kevin Durant missed their last game, a comeback win over Orlando, with a sore shooting shoulder but is not on the injury report today. Bruce Brown and Joe Harris are on the report, and both have already been ruled out with injury. Evan Mobley remains out with his elbow injury for Cleveland and Cedi Osman is doubtful to play as well. Now that we’re done with the injuries let’s get to the actual matchup. When these two teams met last week, it was a successful and-one opportunity converted by Darius Garland with 16.4 seconds left that got the Cavaliers on or inside the number. Cleveland struggled mightily on offense in that game, managing just 0.99 points per possession, and that has been a theme for the Cavaliers lately. In their last six games they are averaging 98.6 points per 100 possessions and have not put up more than a point per possession in five straight contests. It might be hard to swallow that many points with an overvalued favorite that is 4-5-1 ATS this month, but it is the side I would rather be on if forced to choose.

Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-4.5, 216)

On Saturday, Washington overcame a 10-point deficit with less than five minutes to go to beat Miami and snap an 0-2 SU and ATS slide. The first of those two losses was to this Charlotte team and they look for revenge tonight. The Hornets have been in great form and were on a 5-0 SU and ATS run before falling to the Hawks on Saturday. This matchup remains the same as a few days ago. Charlotte loves to work their offense off dribble penetration, and it is up to Washington to limit that. The Wizards allow opponents to shoot 67.3% at the rim and the Hornets take the second-highest rate of attempts within four feet. In their meeting five days ago went 21-of-31 at the rim and throttled them in transition by averaging 1.385 points per play. Limiting those looks within four feet and keeping Charlotte out of transition is the game plan for Washington, but that is obviously easier said than done. The betting market has dipped from the opening number of Wizards -3.5 and I agree with that move. I’ve been looking to play against Washington lately and took one on the chin with their big comeback on Saturday night, but it looks like the betting market agrees that the power rating for the Wizards is just a bit too high.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks (-11, 212)

With the cover in Boston on Saturday this Oklahoma City team improved to 10-6 ATS on the season and 8-2 ATS in the month of November. This large number might surprise some folks, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s appearance on the injury report might spell trouble for the red-hot Thunder. With SGA on the floor Oklahoma City’s net rating improves by 5.5 points per 100 possessions and their offensive rating plummets to 89.5 in the possessions he is not on the floor. It is shocking, but a bad team needs a 20.4 point per game scorer on the floor to be competitive. Atlanta is also starting to find its footing after an awful start to November in which it went 1-6 SU and ATS in the first seven games. The Hawks come in 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four with a + 14.2 net rating and double-digit wins in every single game. Atlanta might at the top of the market here, but with the injury situation for the Oklahoma City it is not hard to see why this number is so high, but the initial move has been toward the visitors as -10.5 is up at shops with this line hung. The total is still hovering around 212.5 but bettors should expect that total to drop like a rock should Gilgeous-Alexander not play.

Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics (-12.5, 212)

Boston looks like it is slowly finding some consistency and enters tonight 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS in its last seven games. The Celtics blew out the Lakers on Friday and followed that up with a win over the Thunder on Saturday, but in that game they were outscored 31-22 and failed to cover. After a day off they should be able to handle Houston, a team stuck in a free-fall. The Rockets grabbed a cover against the Knicks on Saturday, not something to write home about these days, to improve to 3-7 ATS this month. Houston has been outscored by 12.5 points per 100 possessions in those 10 games and has the worst offensive rating in the league (98.1) over that span. Bettors are not getting any discounts in betting against the Rockets, as they have closed as an underdog in every game but two this season while catching an average of 9.3 points in those contests. As expected, the market has come off the 12.5 and is now at 11.5 at most shops due to that inflated line. However, with such little fight being shown by this team why would you want to back them? 

Indiana Pacers at *Chicago Bulls (-3.5, 208)

Chicago grabbed the win and cover last night over New York to improve to 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games, but it needed 37 points in the fourth quarter to do so. The lack of production from this bench for the Bulls continues to bother me, and that popped up against the Knicks as their reserves scored just 32 points. Nikola Vucevic is out of isolation, but still needs to go through the cardiovascular protocols to make his way back so do not expect him back tonight. That is tough as they might need all the offensive help they can get against a quietly sturdy Indiana defense. The Pacers have slowly climbed the rankings lately and in the month of November they have limited opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They are also beginning to experience better health, as rookie Chris Duarte returned from injury two games ago and the lone name on the injury report is T.J. Warren. Indiana is a team that has some potential for upward momentum and would be worth backing as they get better availability from their role players.

Play: Pacers (+ 3.5)

Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5, 216.5)

Milwaukee is beginning to get healthy, but the results have yet to come for bettors as the team is 3-2 SU/0-5 ATS in their last five games. Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez remain out, but Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton will be on the floor together for the third consecutive game. When those three are on the floor together Milwaukee has a + 23.8 net rating and is averaging 117.4 points per 100 possessions. The offense will continue to improve as those three get more time together and that showed on Saturday when the Bucks put up a 113.6 offensive rating, their best offensive performance in nearly two weeks. Orlando is a team that takes 41.8% of its attempts from the perimeter, so there is going to be some variance for them on hot shooting nights, but I would be wary of consistently betting against Milwaukee as it gets healthier. The total is up to 218 at a couple of shops and that would make sense given the improvement we have seen from the Bucks’ offense with Middleton on the floor.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 213.5) at New Orleans Pelicans

Minnesota has woken up from its coma to go 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in its last five games, but wins over Sacramento, San Antonio and Memphis are not worth celebrating. Having said that, they get an equally dreadful opponent tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS this month with a -9.8 net rating and they could be short-handed as Devonte’ Graham is questionable to play with a foot injury that has kept him out of the last two games. The Timberwolves have been fantastic on offense during these previous three games by averaging 125.0 points per 100 possessions, and they could certainly keep it going against this defense, but there are better games to bet than a bad team laying points on the road. Bettors missed the boat as this moved early and is now -3.5 at every shop which makes sense given the recent play of both teams.

*Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 220.5) at San Antonio Spurs

After a slow start to the season the Suns are back their winning ways, and they bring into this contest a 12-0 SU/9-3 ATS winning streak. During this stretch they’ve outscored opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. They’re on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, but after blowing out Denver on Sunday both Chris Paul and Devin Booker played no more than 28 minutes which means they will be perfectly fine to play tonight. It’s hard to make a case for San Antonio given the state of their offense. The Spurs are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games with a -14.5 net rating due to an offense only managing 99.7 points per 100 possessions. There has been no movement on this line as of this morning, but it would not surprise me to see the Suns go off as high ass 6.5-point favorites tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (-9.5, 221.5)

Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton will not play for Memphis tonight against Utah and that is going to be a problem. The Grizzlies are 3-5 SU and ATS in their last eight games and their defense completely collapsed on Saturday in getting torched by the Timberwolves for 1.569 points per possession. Over this eight-game stretch Memphis is giving up 115.1 points per 100 possessions while scoring 107.0 on offense. Brooks is one of their best on-ball defenders and Melton one of their best shooters, leaving them without two key role players on both ends of the floor. The Jazz ae finding some momentum as well. Their injury report is clean and they come into tonight 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three with a + 23.1 net rating. The market is moving toward Utah and rightfully so, as they match up very well with this short-handed opponent.

Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings (-2.5, 217)

The first game in the Alvin Gentry era in Sacramento is tonight, but it is hard to know what his impact will be so early on. Clearly the Kings needed a change though, as they are now 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games with a -6.0 net rating despite having a roster with enough talent to compete for a play-in seed. Philadelphia is still a mess in terms of personnel with Joel Embiid and Danny Green out. Tobias Harris is questionable as well with a hip injury. The move here has been to the over as this total is up two points at most shops to 219 which makes sense. Since Embiid’s last game the 76rs are giving up 115.5 points per 100 possessions on defense, the third-worst defensive rating over that span of seven games. Sacramento is not far ahead at 111.7 points per 100 possessions allowed. 

Best Bets Summary

Pacers (+ 3.5)

Jazz (-9.5)

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