NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 6/8

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, June 8th

*Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics (-3.5, 212.5)

Game 3: Series tied 1-1

After what seems like an eternity the NBA Finals finally resume tonight back in Boston where the Celtics will look to get the taste of a 107-88 beatdown in Game 2 out of their mouths. If history tells us anything it’s that Boston is going to respond in a big way tonight. Most are throwing around the 6-0 SU and ATS mark in the postseason after loss for this Celtics team, but that trend is stronger than just a six-game sample size. If you include the regular season as well then this team is 26-11 SU/25-12 ATS after a SU loss this entire season. It would seem Boston is in great position to bounce back with a win here tonight.

It should also be factored in that Golden State has not been the same team on the road this season. In the playoffs the Warriors are 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS with a -8.7 net rating in non-garbage time minutes away from home. Regular season included the Warriors are 25-23 SU/20-28 ATS on foreign courts. Boston will not be confused with a dominant home team like Golden State, but this team has still outscored its opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes this postseason on top of being in the favorable situation of coming off a loss.

However, that is all trends and situational. What about the basketball? If the Celtics are going to put forth a better effort tonight it starts with taking care of the basketball. Boston turned the ball over on 23.4% of their offensive possessions in non-garbage time minutes of their loss on Sunday. Golden State took advantage, averaging 1.44 points per play in transition off steals and adding 4.0 points per 100 possessions in that area of offense. Turnovers have long been a problem for the Celtics in this postseason, as they have a 17.7% turnover rate in losses this postseason, a rate surpassed only by Atlanta which turned it over on 18.8% of their offensive possessions in its series loss to Miami. If they clean those up, then this figures to be a much tighter contest.

Both the side and total have been frozen on the opening numbers of 3.5 and 212.5 since opening on Sunday. There have been reports of respected money coming in on Boston, but not enough to move the line to -4 at any shop. I will be on the Celtics side yet again tonight, but as usual will be holding out to see what the market does here. The betting public has been squarely on the side of the Warriors in this series and their influence was massive on Sunday. If we get that same push there is a chance Boston backers such as myself will get a better number than the one listed. I will use 3.5 for the article today but always be on the lookout for the better number. 

Best Bet Summary

Celtics (-3.5)

Season Record: 99-83-2

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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