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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/4

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 4

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-9, 206.5)

Game 2: Heat lead 1-0

After the results of Game 1 on Monday it is not shocking to see the market adjust the number for this game today, but it does seem somewhat strong. The Heat might have won and covered the game, but there was plenty that Miami needs to work on for the rematch today.

It was the Heat who trailed at halftime of Game 1 in part because of a disjointed offense that clearly missed its starting point guard. Miami averaged just 1.02 points per possession in that half of basketball and turned the ball over on 20.4% of its first half possessions. For the game they averaged just 0.872 points per play in half-court settings and used their transition offense – 1.636 points per play overall, 1.429 per play off live rebounds – to pull away in the second half. Miami has been an average half-court team in the postseason and that will likely continue as long as Kyle Lowry misses time, which is the case today, as he was already ruled out. If the Heat continue to struggle in that facet of their offense, it leaves the door open for an underdog like Philadelphia to stay inside what is a big number.

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