NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/25

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 25th

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics (-1.5, 203) at Miami Heat

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

I am disappointed in myself after the result of last night. Not because the bet I made lost, but because I made a bet that steered away from my process. Despite some of the overwhelming statistics in favor of Golden State I decided to ignore some of the obvious indicators that told us Dallas was playing much better than the results indicated. I will get more into those numbers in tomorrow’s column when that series resumes in San Francisco, but trust that I will not diverge from my process tonight.

Boston is the better team in this series. Despite a tie through four games it is the Celtics that have a + 13.3 net rating in this series. They have won the Shot Quality score in three of the contests to this point, and in the two games in which both Al Horford and Robert Williams have been available the Heat have been held to 1.051 and 0.75 points per possession. Through four games Miami has scored just 90.9 points per 100 plays in halfcourt settings as well, a rating that is last among the conference finalists and 8.8 points worse than Dallas’ rating which is third worst among these teams. Coming into this series I believe that Boston was the better team by a decent amount, and in the two victories those differences have shown themselves. If this frontcourt is whole tonight, I would expect that a similar result transpires tonight.

The betting market is clearly in agreement with my line of thinking, as the Celtics are up to -2 at multiple shops. It is a number that is much higher than where we were prior to Game 1 of this series, but much of that has to do with injury. Miami has five players listed on the injury report as questionable, one of which is Tyler Herro who missed the last game. However, the key name on this injury report is Williams. It is not a coincidence that Boston is winless in the two games in which their frontcourt pairing of Horford and Williams is not complete. In non-garbage time minutes of those contests the Heat have put up 1.216 and 1.161 points per possession and offensive ratings of 95.6 and 112.2 in halfcourt settings. Williams’ status has me off this game right now, but should he play Boston is going to be the side tonight.

Best Bet Summary


Season Record: 98-81-2

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