NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 5/11

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, May 11

*Lines are opening numbers

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-5.5, 214.5)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

In a series that has been dominated by defense it was the offenses that made the difference on Monday night. Boston put up 1.87 points per possession in the fourth quarter and scored 43 points thanks to the efforts of Al Horford and Jayson Tatum, and this series is now tied and homecourt is back in the hands of the Celtics. Boston now has two games in which it has averaged 1.173 points per possession or more in this series, both of which were wins, and they will need that tonight to take that commanding 3-2 series lead. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo looked taxed at the end of that game on Monday, and it is no coincidence that the Celtics were able to do what they did on the offensive end of the floor. The two-time MVP needs help, and he is not getting it. Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists in the series on 43.5% shooting from the floor, but Jrue Holiday is shooting 33.6% from the floor and 30.9% from deep. Bobby Portis has been held to 13 total points the last two games, Brook Lopez has contributed just 9.5 points per game and Pat Connaughton is their most consistent role player with 10.8 points per contest on 46.9% shooting from the perimeter. Those contributions do not cut it in a postseason series, and now they must go on the road.

Home teams in the conference semifinals have been incredible, posting a 15-3 SU/14-4 ATS mark with an average net rating of + 12.5 according to Cleaning The Glass. Role players tend to perform at a higher level on their own floor, and Boston is likely getting one of those guys back tonight in Robert Williams. It just does not bode well for Milwaukee. Some expressed surprise at this number, but it is right in line with what I make it, perhaps a half-point too high. The total is intriguing though. The betting market has pushed this down to 213.5 which is five points off the opening number of the first game. Shot quality data suggests both these teams should be performing better offensively, so I’ll go back to the well and play this Over after the last game did just that.

Play: Over 213.5

Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 219.5) at Memphis Grizzlies

Game 5: Warriors lead 3-1

This is a poor situation for Memphis to be in. The Grizzlies played as well as they could on the defensive end against the Warriors in Game 4 but their poor offensive effort kept the door open for Golden State to come back and win that game. Memphis does get to go back home here, but with the news of Ja Morant’s knee injury keeping him out for this series it figures to be a tough task to get up off the mat to stave off elimination tonight. The Grizzlies must be great once again on defense while trying to figure how to put forth a more efficient effort on offense, specifically in half-court settings where they averaged 0.787 points per play without Morant on the floor.

The betting market was all over this side from the jump, pushing it up from the open of Warriors -2.5 to the -4 which populates the board right now. With this line moving as much as it has it would not be wise to recommend a play pre-flop as there is no value in that number now. The strategy here should be to wait for an opportunity in-game to back Golden State. Memphis is in a desperate situation in front of its home crowd, so it tracks that a strong start is in the cards for this team. Should that happen and you can get a cheaper price or even catch a few points with the Warriors during the contest that is the way to go. The total here seemed high at the open given the struggles of Memphis on offense and how they want to play, so I believe the market has this right in betting it down.

Best Bet Summary

Bucks/Celtics OV 213.5

Season Record: 94-75-2

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