NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 4/6


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, April 6th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Games

Dallas Mavericks (-10, 220.5) at Detroit Pistons

Just one game separates Dallas and Golden State, so the Mavericks should be motivated to win these last three games to steal the third seed from the Warriors. However, motivation only means so much, and Dallas will have to be better defensively if it wants to cover a big number on the road against Detroit. The Mavericks have allowed 118.3 points per 100 possessions over the course of their last 11 games, and while they have a 7-4 SU record in those contests they have only covered five of them. Now, they must face a Pistons team which is 11-11 SU/19-3 ATS since Feb. 16 with a + 0.4 net rating. There has clearly been no real adjustment by the market on the power rating for Detroit, and as a result they continue to cover numbers like the one hung here today. The injury report is lengthy for the Pistons today though, so a shortage of bodies could keep them from staying inside this number. Marvin Bagley, Cory Joseph and Kelly Olynyk are among the six players not playing tonight for Detroit. I have always said that if the dynamic duo of Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey are playing this team has a chance, but it will be tight tonight.

Boston Celtics (-6.5, 224) at *Chicago Bulls

Both Boston and Chicago have a chance to improve their seeding over the final three games of the regular season, so we could see a real effort from both teams here tonight. The Bulls were dealt a blow yesterday though, as their loss to Milwaukee coupled with the win by the Raptors has them sixth in the East with a full game deficit to make up for fifth. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 2.5 games back of Miami for the first seed and tied with both Bucks and 76ers for the second seed, but tie breakers would give them the second if they finish with the same record as those two clubs. So, is Boston motivated to grab that second seed and potentially host Brooklyn in the first round? It seems so on the surface. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford all appeared on the injury report here, but are listed as probable as of this morning. The Bulls have their own injury issues to deal with here, as Zach LaVine could not play yesterday against the Bucks and is questionable at best tonight. Chicago is also just in terrible form right now, coming in 6-13 SU/5-14 ATS with the fifth-worst net rating (-6.9) in the league over that stretch. If the Celtics are taking this contest seriously they deserve to be favored by this amount on the road.

The Others

*Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 230.5) at Los Angeles Clippers

On paper this looks like one of the best matchups on the card tonight, but does this game look like once we enter the second half? Neither the Suns nor Clippers have anything to play for in the remaining contests on the schedule, as both teams are locked into their respective seeds. Furthermore, this has the potential to be a first round series should Los Angeles take the eighth seed in the Western Conference play-in, so there probably is not much motivation to show the opponent anything of note when it comes to scheme. This could take the shape of a preseason game, where the back of the roster is on the floor for the majority of the second half. It is why we’ve seen this line make its way to the Clippers side and why the total is down to 226.5 and falling. It is an easy one to scratch off tonight. 

*Brooklyn Nets (-7.5, 229.5) at New York Knicks

Brooklyn walked through a meeting with Houston last night, but another failed cover means the Nets are now 0-5 ATS in their last five and 2-7 ATS in the last nine. The Nets are a powerful offensive team, but clearly the market has overvalued this team from a power rating perspective, and it has made them untouchable. Their defensive rating last night was very good (104.0), but they had no answer for Jalen Green and Kevin Porter who combined for 66 points on 51.0% shooting from the floor. It’s just too much, for me at least, to ask this team to lay these numbers. New York has Quentin Grimes listed as questionable tonight, but the usual crew should be ready to go, and they have finally put together a solid stretch of play with a 10-7 SU/11-6 ATS record over the last 17 games. 

*Washington Wizards at *Atlanta Hawks (-10.5, 230.5)

Atlanta’s porous defense reared its ugly head again last night, allowing 1.204 points per possession in a 118-108 loss in Toronto. The defeat knocked the Hawks down to ninth in the Eastern Conference play-in with three games left to play. Personally, I wanted to play Atlanta here against Washington, as the Hawks have done well against lesser competition, but this number is much higher than what I made it (-7.5). The Wizards can take advantage of poor defensive play, as demonstrated by their win over the Timberwolves last night when they put up 1.245 points per possession. 

*Oklahoma City Thunder at *Utah Jazz (-17.5, 224.5)

Utah almost blew it last night against Memphis, but it turned out the extra period was what they needed to pull out a win and cover against the Grizzlies. The Jazz are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, so this is not the team to go to war with when laying a number like this. Oklahoma City might be in the midst of another season ending tank job, but the team is still very well coached and it has led to an 8-3 ATS run in the last 11 games. Utah will be a popular addition to moneyline parlays tonight, but I wouldn’t be caught dead laying this number.

Best Bets Summary


Season Record: 82-63-2

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Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.