NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 4/27


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, April 27th

*Lines are opening numbers

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-10, 217.5)

Game 5: Bucks lead 3-1

Chicago was already pressed to find an answer for Milwaukee’s defense, and now they must do it without Zach LaVine who is out with COVID tonight. The betting market deemed that his absence was worth two points and the Bucks are now -12 across the board. Unless Milwaukee decides to put forth the lackadaisical effort it did in Game 2 then there is little reason to believe that this is not another comfortable double-digit victory for the Bucks. Through four game the Bulls have the worst offensive rating in the postseason, averaging only 94.2 points per 100 possessions. Chicago has resorted to chucking inefficient mid-range jumpers, taking 26.0% of their attempts from long mid-range (About 14 feet to the inside of the 3-point line) while shooting just 40.7% on those attempts. Their bench has been abysmal, averaging 16.7 points per game in the series so far, and now they have one less scorer with the absence of LaVine. Alex Caruso was ruled out this morning as well, which means Chicago will be without one its best scorers and its best defender. This might lead you to laying 12 with Milwaukee, but this number is right where it should be and laying a big number like this could bite bettors. The total has dropped, and it makes sense given how poorly the Bulls’ offense has played in this series. It seems another sub 100-point game is in the cards for the underdog tonight.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-9, 225)

Game 5: Warriors lead 3-1

Sunday’s win in Denver was all about the supporting cast showing up to help Nikola Jokic out. Aaron Gordon had 21 points on 5-of-11 shooting, and Monte Morris scored 24 while going 7-of-11 from the floor and hitting five 3-pointers in the third quarter. It was an incredible performance from the rest of the Nuggets, and yet they still needed a Will Barton 3-pointer with 7.9 left in the fourth to ice the game. If Gordon and Morris are going to shrink like they did in the first two games in San Francisco where they combined to score 37 points in two games then Denver is not going to cover this number. The betting market has really ramped up the power rating on Golden State and this number of 9.5 that is at most shops is obviously much higher than the 6.5/7 that was hung for the first two games of this series. It’s also higher than what my personal number comes out – which is about 8.5 – but I do not want any part of Denver. The role players have been too inconsistent for me to believe the Nuggets would be capable of staying inside this number. If the likes of Morris, Gordon and Barton show up tonight then expect a game like the one we got Sunday, but Denver is in this position of staving off elimination because the inability of those three to string together consistent performances. 

Best Bet Summary


Season Record: 91-70-2

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Matt Youmans: Florida Atlantic (+2) vs San Diego St. View more picks.


A Numbers Game: Reminder that when it comes to more popular teams (i.e. UConn), there’s not a huge rush to grab futures bets preseason. They were 18/1 then to win a national championship, and were 15/1 right before the tournament. View more tips.