NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 2/9


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, February 9th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6, 217.5)

Darius Garland could be back after missing the last four games with a back injury, but Cleveland has delivered regardless of his status. The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in the four games without him, but it’s been due to a defense that has allowed 104.5 points per 100 possessions in those contests. Cleveland’s offense has a 105.6 rating without Garland on the floor, so his return would be a boon for this unit which has been starting a mix of Brandon Goodwin, Dean Wade and Cedi Osman in the backcourt. Regardless of who starts at guard the Cavaliers should see their floor rise on offense given the level of play the Spurs have put forth on defense lately. Over the last 15 games San Antonio has allowed 116.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and been outscored by 0.7 points per 100 possessions despite having the eighth-best offensive rating over that span. The biggest problem for the Spurs has been keeping opponents off the glass. In these 15 games opponents are grabbing 31.4% of their missed shot attempts and averaging 15.9 second chance points per game. Cleveland comes in ranked 10th in offensive rebounding rate (26.8%) and seventh in putback points per missed shot attempt (20.7) which is going to be a problem for San Antonio. This number is already up to -7 at most shops likely due to the anticipation of Garland returning to action. Given the way the Spurs have been playing lately I do not disagree with the market here.

Chicago Bulls (-1, 228.5) at Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte comes into this meeting with Chicago on an 0-5 SU slide with a 2-7 ATS mark in its last nine games. The offensive production has been fleeting for the Hornets in this five-game slump, and Gordon Hayward suffering yet another injury and being forced to miss this game is not going to help. Over the course of this losing streak Charlotte is averaging 97.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes while shooting 27.5% from beyond the arc. According to Cleaning The Glass, the quality of shot attempts should yield a higher effective field goal percentage, so water should find its level with this team at some point and it could be tonight against Chicago. The Bulls are playing their third game in four nights and are currently on a 7-0 run to the Over due to a lackluster defense that has allowed 122.7 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. It seems like quite the overreaction to push the Bulls to as high as -4 which is what this number peaked at overnight. It’s an ugly spot, but I will buy low on Charlotte at home tonight.

Play: Hornets (+ 3)​

Toronto Raptors (-9.5, 208) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City continues to deliver despite the laundry list of injuries to key players on this roster. Since the loss of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to injury the Thunder are 4-1 ATS, and tonight they are faced with the task of slowing down the Raptors which are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games. Toronto has found its form on defense, limiting its last six opponents to 106.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and caught fire from beyond the arc with a 44.9% mark on 3-point attempts during this win streak. The modus operandi under Nick Nurse has been defense, transition offense and shooting and the Raptors have been executing that perfectly now that they are fully healthy. The Thunder are eighth in opponent points added through transition offense (+ 2.1) and defensive efficiency in transition (118.4) and are now 17-8-1 ATS at home on the season. I am not involved here, but its probably time to stop questioning Oklahoma City at this point.

*Minnesota Timberwolves (-9, 232.5) at *Sacramento Kings

This is an odd scheduling spot, as these two teams roll it back immediately after facing one another last night. Sacramento was in a brutal spot, having just lost two primary backcourt pieces in Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton to a deadline deal. On top of those two being shipped off, Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley were unavailable, and Moe Harkless was injured last night. It led to a 20-point loss to Minnesota, and tonight we have no idea who is even playing for the Kings. Domantas Sabonis, Jeremy Lamb and Justin Holiday could be available, but their level of effectiveness is a question, and both Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley are unknowns as well. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are fully healthy. D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley are back in the fold meaning Chris Finch’s death lineup is available once again. Last night, Minnesota closed -7 and won by 20 so there’s no surprise to this adjustment of two points to -9 on the overnight. Even if the newly acquired pieces play, they should not be worth anything to line. It’s worth mentioning that Minnesota is playing its best basketball right now as well. The team is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five and on a 13-3 run to the Over in its last 16 games.

*Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5, 225.5) at *Portland Trail Blazers

It has been three games since the Portland Trail Blazers shipped off Norm Powell and Robert Covington, and last night it was their first game after trading away CJ McCollum to New Orleans. The result is that Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS in those three games, and it is part of a larger 0-6 SU and ATS slide. In the loss to the Magic the Trail Blazers started Anfernee Simons, CJ Elleby, Justise Winslow, Ben McLemore and Jusuf Nurkic. Those five averaged 1.2 points per possession on offense, but their 123.5 defensive rating while on the floor together is atrocious and likely what we can expect moving forward. There is no indication as to when Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker would be available for Portland, so this seems like a prime opportunity for Los Angeles to get back on the winning track. However, bettors should monitor the injury report here. LeBron James is wearing a black sleeve on his ailing knee and looked somewhat heavy in his movement last night. The Lakers need every win they can, so I would expect that James does play tonight but it’s always worth monitoring. On top of that, Carmelo Anthony is out and Dwight Howard is questionable at best. If James and Anthony Davis are available then the Lakers have a massive advantage here, but this line getting as high as -9 is jarring considering how poor Los Angeles has been defensively. 

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (-3.5, 223)

Golden State has won nine straight, but a 4-5 ATS mark in those nine games tells us the market is still somewhat high on this team. When they go for their 10th consecutive win tonight they will do so short-handed. Klay Thompson is out due to injury management, Nemanja Bjelica and Draymond Green are still sidelined and Kevon Looney is questionable to play. If Looney cannot go the Warriors will be at a massive disadvantage up front, as Looney is their lone available center at this point. Rudy Gobert is still out for the Jazz, but they still have Hassan Whiteside and Udoka Azubuike, the latter of which put together a fantastic 28 minutes in the win over New York on Monday. If Looney cannot play Utah would have distinct advantage on the glass which would go a long way toward improving their current 3-0 SU and ATS run. 

Best Bets Summary

Hornets (+ 3)

Season Record: 60-52-1

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