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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 2/9


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, February 9th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6, 217.5)

Darius Garland could be back after missing the last four games with a back injury, but Cleveland has delivered regardless of his status. The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in the four games without him, but it’s been due to a defense that has allowed 104.5 points per 100 possessions in those contests. Cleveland’s offense has a 105.6 rating without Garland on the floor, so his return would be a boon for this unit which has been starting a mix of Brandon Goodwin, Dean Wade and Cedi Osman in the backcourt. Regardless of who starts at guard the Cavaliers should see their floor rise on offense given the level of play the Spurs have put forth on defense lately. Over the last 15 games San Antonio has allowed 116.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and been outscored by 0.7 points per 100 possessions despite having the eighth-best offensive rating over that span. The biggest problem for the Spurs has been keeping opponents off the glass. In these 15 games opponents are grabbing 31.4% of their missed shot attempts and averaging 15.9 second chance points per game. Cleveland comes in ranked 10th in offensive rebounding rate (26.8%) and seventh in putback points per missed shot attempt (20.7) which is going to be a problem for San Antonio. This number is already up to -7 at most shops likely due to the anticipation of Garland returning to action. Given the way the Spurs have been playing lately I do not disagree with the market here.

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