NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 12/8


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, December 8th

We get 13 games on the card tonight in the Association, and there are some fascinating contests.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-4, 212.5)

Tom Thibodeau continues to tinker with his starting lineup, and last night the latest change was starting Nerlens Noel over Mitchell Robinson at center. One could say the move worked as the Knicks won and covered 121-109 but hitting 17-of-37 3-point attempts is probably what made the difference last night. Tonight, they’re in Indiana facing a team that has some bad juju around it. Shams Charania reported the other day that the Pacers are open to selling prior to the trade deadline, TJ McConnell had undergo wrist surgery and Justin Holiday is still sidelined. However, the betting market is on the home team’s side here, driving this up to -5 at a few shops early this morning. Indiana is the slightly better team, but without homecourt this line is telling bettors they are about three points better on a neutral court. There is not much separating these two clubs, and if this number continues to climb it will be hard to stay off New York.

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5, 208.5)

Chicago will be extremely short-handed tonight. DeMar DeRozan and Coby White are in COVID protocol and Alex Caruso is doubtful to play with a hamstring injury. These factors are why Cleveland not only opened as a 1.5-point favorite but is now -3 at most shops. This is just the third game this season in which the Cavaliers have been favored, and frankly they deserve to be. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games and leads the league in cover rate at 78.3%. They have done so with a defense that is allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions overall and 88.7 points per 100 plays in halfcourt situations. It makes sense that they would be favored with that defense over a team missing one of its best offensive players. With DeRozan off the court the Bulls are outscored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions and their offensive rating of 107.7 ranks in the 38th percentile of qualified lineups. If Chicago, which is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, were to fall this would be the game. However, there is no value in this line anymore with it as high as it is. This is a big role reversal for a team that deserved respect. It will be fascinating to see if the Cavs can deliver.

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