NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 1/26

January 26, 2022 10:37 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, January 26th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*Los Angeles Clippers (-1, 210.5) @ Orlando Magic

Only 24 hours after staging the second-biggest comeback in the NBA since the 1996-1997 season the Los Angeles Clippers will be back in action against Orlando. The win last night for the Clippers was the third comeback of 24 or more points in month of January, so this is not foreign territory. Los Angeles has lost each of the contests following these behemoth comebacks, so it would not be surprising to see a less than stellar effort on no rest here. Orlando is coming off an upset of Chicago which snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide, but January has been a much more competitive month for the Magic. They are 6-6 ATS in 12 games with the 10th-best defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes (109.5). That defense could continue to thrive tonight not only because of the situation for Los Angeles, but also because the Clippers continue to struggle on offense and enter tonight 27th in offensive efficiency (108.5) since losing Paul George.

*Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers (PK, 225.5)

The “improved” defense from the Hornets has been exposed in its last two contests, both losses. Atlanta and Toronto combined to average 122.8 points per 100 possessions, with the Raptors going a combined 29-of-44 (66.0%) at the rim and beyond the arc. It’s clear that run of defensive play from Charlotte is not really who this team is, and this could be the start of regression to the mean for this team. Indiana had its 3-0 ATS run snapped in New Orleans last time out, but this makeshift lineup it’s been rolling out lately has some upside on offense. With Caris LeVert expected to be available tonight bettors will likely see him, Chris Duarte, Justin Holiday, Torrey Craig and Goga Bitadze as the starting lineup. That core group of Duarte, Holiday, Craig and Bitzadze have been the starters over the last three games, and the Pacers have seen a spike in offensive production. Those four produce 118.8 points per 100 possessions when on the floor together and have shot an incredible 46.2% from distance. The defense has not been great, but Indiana has scored 110+  points in four of five games which has been some of the best production on that end of the floor this team has seen. Therefore, we’ve seen the total bet up two points from 225.5 to 227.5 at most shops. 

Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5, 216.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Since Dec. 28 the Cleveland Cavaliers are 9-6 SU/4-10-1 ATS and have been outscored by 0.7 points per 100 possessions. Over this span the Cavaliers’ defense continues to deliver and has the 12th best rating in the league (111.0), but the offense has clearly been dragged down by the multiple backcourt losses and is 22nd in efficiency over the same stretch (110.3). The question becomes, which version of Milwaukee shows up tonight? The Bucks are 6-6 SU/4-8 ATS in January due to inconsistent performances on both ends of the floor. Against Sacramento on Saturday, a team that was just held to 75 points and 0.776 points per possession by Boston, Milwaukee allowed 127 points (1.26 per possession) and could not cover. The night before they managed 0.989 points per possession in a 94-90 win over Chicago. The results have been so wildly erratic for the Bucks it’s hard to gauge which team is showing up on a nightly basis. Given the poor backcourt play the Cavaliers are dealing with, and the potential absence of Jarrett Allen paired with the already missing Lauri Markkanen, it would seem the Bucks are in a much better spot here tonight.

*Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, 233)

What do bettors even do with Sacramento after that performance last night? The Kings were absolutely slaughtered by the Celtics in Boston, getting held to 75 points and 0.776 points per possession in a 53-point loss. Sacramento is 2-9 SU/4-7 ATS in its last 11 games and the market seems to have had enough of them as they are now catching 9.5 in Atlanta. The case for the Kings is that they have an offense that theoretically matches up well with the Hawks. Sacramento shoots 64.5% at the rim as a team and Atlanta ranks 19th in rim defense (65.3%). The Kings are also the sixth-most efficient offense in the league in transition (128.9) facing a Hawks defense that is 26th in that category (136.8). However, where is Sacramento at right now as a team? To add to that, Atlanta is getting healthier. Bogdan Bogdanovic probable tonight, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is questionable, and Clint Capela has been back for two games now. The overnight number is long gone and we’re now at Atlanta -9.5 which is warranted given the latest performance from the Kings. However, if you’re not involved yet it’s too late now and an in-game opportunity is the way to go if you’re looking to fade the Kings.

Memphis Grizzlies (-3, 227.5) @ *San Antonio Spurs

The luster has worn off the once red-hot Grizzlies and the team has looked much more human of late. Memphis comes in 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games with a -7.1 net rating due to an offense that has completely disappeared. In those five games the Grizzlies have averaged just 103.9 points per 100 possessions, but two of those lesser offensive performance have come against Dallas which is one of the best defensive teams in the league right now. San Antonio is not that, so it would make sense for the Grizzlies to right the ship on offense tonight. The Spurs held the Rockets to 1.0 point per possession last night, but it’s hardly been a consistent effort on that end of the floor since the beginning of January as the team ranks 19th in defensive efficiency since then. Memphis has taken on the form of a public team since its hot streak, and thus the market has pushed this line up to as high as -5 at a few shops. I would expect that number is the highest we see on the Grizzlies here before some buyback occurs.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat (-6, 201)

Miami dismantled Los Angeles over the weekend to take over first place in the Eastern Conference and extended its current run to 8-1-1 ATS over the last nine games. Tyler Herro will be back tonight after missing the win over the Lakers which means Miami will be missing just one of its top six players tonight, as Kyle Lowry remains out due to personal reasons. Surprisingly, it has been offense that has propelled the Heat lately and not elite defensive play. Over the course of these nine games Miami is third in offensive efficiency (117.3) and shooting the ball at an extremely high level (40.1% on 36.3 attempts per game). New York has had trouble this season with elite perimeter offenses and its own offense has been hit or miss, scoring under 100 points in three of its last five games. The initial move here has been toward the Knicks and the over, and the total is what makes sense to me most. These two teams allow opponents to take 3-point shots and both rely on those offensively. It might seem like a defensive slugfest on the surface, but should be higher scoring than the market is giving it credit for.

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