NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/3


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, November 2nd

As noted in yesterday’s report, this could be the start of something for these Overs and yet again they took the day with a 3-2 record. Totals are getting astronomically low in a league that is shooting 3-pointers more than ever. Be cautious when riding trends like that, as water always finds its level. 

Other than that, it was solid night in the NBA on Tuesday. Los Angeles failed to cover in a fun game against Houston and Phoenix needed a strong second half to beat New Orleans. In all, underdogs led the way with a 3-2 ATS mark.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 3rd

It is an insanely deep card today with fantastic games on the schedule, so what are you doing wasting time by reading this? Get to it!

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 219) at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Trail Blazers should be desperate here. On Monday they went to Philadelphia to face a 76ers team without Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons but lost 113-103 and allowed 1.228 points per possession. This defense has issues and they enter today 23rd in defensive efficiency with an 0-2 SU and ATS record on this east coast trip. Cleveland is coming off a successful five-game road trip in which it went 4-1 ATS with a suffocating brand of basketball. The Cavaliers are 22nd in pace right now and allowing just 105.1 points per 100 possessions. Their perimeter defense is allowing a shot frequency of just 34.9% and a shooting percentage of only 32.4%. That is the matchup to watch tonight as the Trail Blazers take 43.0% of their shots from that area of the floor and shoot 36.9% as a team. The market is moving in the direction of Portland and it is easy to see why. On Sunday, the Trail Blazers were -2 in Charlotte and here they open -3 in Cleveland, a line that is telling you the Hornets are only rated a point better than the Cavaliers. It is now up to -4.5 at some shops, but personally, I must see it to believe it with a Trail Blazers team that has a -17.0 net rating on the road.

Boston Celtics (-6, 215) at Orlando Magic

Is this the spot where the Celtics finally come through? Boston is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games and last time it was on the court they became the first team in the shot clock era to lose by 14 or more points after leading by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The offense is averaging just 106.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and they are reliant on the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown minutes. They have a + 9.4 net rating when those two are on the floor, but when Tatum is solo that net rating is -17.8 and when Brown is solo it is -10.5 per Cleaning The Glass. The market is buying low on Boston here despite all of the issues, and they are now -6.5 or -7 depending on where you shop and it isn’t surprising given the low opinion the market has of Orlando. The Magic are coming off an outright win in Minnesota where rookie Franz Wagner dropped 28 points on 10-of-28 shooting. Orlando can have its moments but they are few and far between and its no surprise to see the market react the way it is as it seems to be a buylow spot on Boston. It is also worth noting that in a league that has been so low scoring early these are two Over teams; Boston is 4-3 and Orlando is 6-2 to the Over. Yet we see this total down three points to 212 at most shop.

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-3, 215)

Toronto served bettors well by ruining a magical night in the Garden on Monday and now they will look to extend a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS streak against a short-handed Washington team. The Wizards fell to the Hawks on Monday to snap a 3-0 SU and ATS run of their own and in the game they lost Davis Bertans in the process to an ankle injury. That is a big blow for a team already struggling to shoot at 32.8% on the season. The betting market is moving toward Washington, as the Wizards are now -3.5 across the board, but put me in the camp of the underdog here. Toronto is starting to figure it out on offense, posting a 112.3 offensive rating over the last five games and a halfcourt offensive rating of 92.0 or higher in four of five contests. The Raptors also continue to be a solid rim defense, allowing teams to take just 31.0% of their shots at the rim while allowing 63.0% shooting. The Wizards live in that area of the floor and they shoot 67.7% within four feet so this will be a test of strength on strength that Toronto should win. The Wizards are a team that should begin to come back down to Earth as the market pumps them up after a strong start, and that began Monday in Atlanta.

Play: Toronto (+ 3.5)

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers (-1, 216.5)

The injury report is still lengthy for the Philadelphia 76ers as Danny Green is now out with hamstring tightness. He joins Tobias Harris who is out due to COVID protocol, but Joel Embiid is back after taking the game against Portland off. On the other side, Chicago still does not have Coby White back but it has not mattered for the Bulls who come into this contest 6-1 SU and ATS. The betting market has started to move toward Philadelphia and is now -2 across the board and it should. Embiid’s presence makes a massive difference and with him on the court the 76ers outscore opponents by 8.8 points per 100 possessions. It will be fascinating to see which Embiid shows up though. Will it be the Embiid that took one attempt in the paint against New York, or the one who can force the issue down low against a lesser defender in Nikola Vucevic? Like many of these teams that are off to great starts ATS I have been looking to take my shot against the Bulls but tonight is not it. The 76ers have been somewhat inconsistent even with Embiid (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in games he played) and the Bulls are extremely well coached. Without Harris and Green the 76ers are hurting for on-ball defenders and the likes of Tyrese Maxey and Seth Curry will be hunted consistently tonight. It’s not surprising to see the total drop here given Embiid’s status and the trend of Unders that has clearly influenced the market, but be careful as there is certainly a path for both teams to operate their offense at a high level.

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-2, 218)

A troubling trend is starting to develop for New York, and it could pop up again tonight against Indiana. Opponents are grabbing 25.8% of their missed shots against the Knicks this season, and both the Pelicans and Raptors grabbed over 30% of their misses and combined to score 28 second chance points in their last two games. New York failed to cover both of those games and lost outright against Toronto on Monday night. Now, they face the 12th-best offensive rebounding team in the league in Indiana as they look to snap this 0-2 ATS slide they are in. The Pacers are not exactly in great shape with a 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS start to the season, so it is not surprising to see the line drop to -1 at almost every shop on the screen. Indiana’s perimeter defense has been pathetic, giving up 38.0% to opposing shooters and tonight they must defend New York which takes 41.7% of its attempts from deep and leads the league in 3-point shooting at 41.8%. High-volume shooting leads to variance, as we have discussed in this column, so a poor shooting night and solid work on the glass could give the Pacers a win and cover tonight, but there are much better teams to back on a loaded card. As far as the total is concerned, stop me if you’ve heard this before, the market is heading to the under with this down a point to 217 at most shops. 

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (-5.5, 219)

James Harden haters avert your eyes because it seems the Beard and the Nets might be on the verge of figuring this thing out. Harden has put 47 points on 11-of-20 shooting over the last two games with 18 rebounds and 20 assists. Those games have come against Indiana and Detroit, but it is a positive sign for Brooklyn that Harden is finding his place in this newly officiated world. He also made 19 trips to the free throw line against the Pacers, showing his ability to still force the issue at the cup like he has his entire career. Now the Nets, coming off of their best offensive game of the season, face a potentially short-handed Hawks team struggling to find consistency on defense. Atlanta comes into tonight’s contest having allowed 119.9 points per 100 possessions over the last three games. The Hawks have been terrible defending the rim, allowing opponents to take 32.5% of their attempts within four feet and shoot 69.1% which is the second-worst rate in the league right now. Their transition defense is giving up 126.1 points per 100 plays, an area of the floor Brooklyn was brilliant in last season and something they have gone to more regularly in the past few games. Throw in the questionable status of John Collins and this seems to be a favorable spot for the home team. Just last week the Nets were laying -6 to Washington, a team the Hawks were just favored over by 5.5 at home. There is clear market value on Brooklyn and I will be taking this buy-low opportunity tonight. 

Play: Brooklyn (-5) 

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies (-1, 213)

By my count this is the third time this season in which we have an immediate rematch between teams with a day off in between. Denver lost on Monday in an awful offensive game that saw the Nuggets manage just 1.0 point per possession against the league’s 29th-ranked defense. Denver got just 34 points and 18.7% shooting from distance from its bench, something that has plagued this team this season. The Nuggets are now -28.6 per 100 possessions when Nikola Jokic hits the bench and that is just not a team worth backing at this point right now. This matchup should work in favor of Denver but consider me jaded after that performance on Monday night. The betting market does seem to agree with the sentiment that the Nuggets are the side as we are down to PK in every shop but one on the screen. In these rematches we usually see the market head toward the team that failed to cover in the first meeting, but we had one of those situations last night and the Lakers barely got the Rockets on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1, 217.5)

When is the offense going to show up for Los Angeles? As of today, the Clippers rank 27th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency, scoring just 102.0 points every 100 possessions. It is a team that is reliant on Paul George to create on that end of the floor and even then, they are not performing at a high level. When George is on the floor their offensive rating is just 103.4 but when he is off it plummets to 96.8 per 100 possessions. What makes it more frustrating is the fact that this Clippers team is legitimately good on defense. Los Angeles still has a + 0.2 net rating this season due to a defense that is giving up just 101.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. In halfcourt situations the team is 4th in defensive efficiency (83.8) and they have allowed opponents to shoot just 60.4% at the rim. Should the Clippers figure out what ails them on offense this team can still be a playoff contender and the market seems to believe they can do it tonight against Minnesota. The line has flipped from the overnight of Timberwolves -1 to Clippers -1.5 almost everywhere and I agree with the move. As much as I believe in this Minnesota team they are clearly not the 2nd-ranked defense in the league despite what the numbers say. Of their six opponents only Milwaukee ranks higher than 20th in offensive efficiency. Los Angeles will be able to test this unit with its personnel and Minnesota has no real answer for Paul George who is averaging 28.3 points on 49.2% shooting from the floor. The value is gone in the side so it will not be a bet, but I believe the Clippers are the team to back in this spot.

*Dallas Mavericks (-1.5, 216.5) at San Antonio Spurs

Dallas was handed a tough loss last night against a Miami team that matched up will with them and still put up 1.157 points per possession on the best defense in the league. Tonight, they face a Spurs team that is giving up 36.3% from the perimeter, something the Mavericks will be able to exploit given where the team generates its offense from. Bettors have seen the market move toward San Antonio, but that is a usual occurrence for game involving a team coming in on no days rest. Maxi Kleber will miss this game and Kristaps Porzingis remains questionable with a back injury. Less than a week ago Dallas was laying -7 at home in a game they eventually won 104-99 and now this is PK in San Antonio. Does that not seem like a really strong move just for a team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back?

*New Orleans Pelicans at *Sacramento Kings (-5.5, 218.5)

Two teams coming off near upsets of Western Conference powers on the road now face off in Sacramento. New Orleans will be looking for revenge after being handed a loss at home by this team last Friday, but one has to wonder what the mentality is for the Pelicans who were blasted 36-18 in the fourth quarter by Phoenix last night. New Orleans managed just 1.007 points per possession against the Suns and their offense remains one of the worst in the league. I am never comfortable backing a team like the Kings as a favorite so this one is easy to stay away from, but the market believes the Pelicans are the side as they are now + 4.5 at almost every shop.

Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors (-6, 225.5)

One of the few games on the board in which we have seen the total move to the Over which is now 227 at most shops. It will be fascinating to see how Charlotte matches up with Golden State’s perimeter defense which is among the best in the NBA allowing just 31.5% to opponents. The Warriors are a legit defensive team and they limit penetration, holding opponents to a shot frequency of only 28.9% at the rim. That is not good for a Hornets team that lives on drive-and-kick opportunities to run its offense. We saw a similar matchup for Charlotte over the weekend against Miami and they failed to cover in a big way. Something tells me a similar outcome could be in the cards here against the Warriors.

Best Bet Recap

Raptors (+ 3.5)

Nets (-5)

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