NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/24

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 24th

It is a big card tonight so let’s not waste any time.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers (-1, 217.5)

LeBron James is expected to return from suspension tonight, but the market continues to move in the direction of Indiana. Anthony Davis played while the under the weather last night, so there is certainly a chance he will not be available tonight which explains some of the adjustment on the Pacers. Indiana has its own injury concerns with Caris LeVert who is questionable to play with a sore back. The Pacers are allowing just 104.6 points per 100 possessions on defense this month, and they are a team I want to play on moving forward. However, I missed the best number available and LeVert’s status turn me away from Indiana. Should Davis not appear on the injury report I would expect some buyback on Los Angeles.

Phoenix Suns (-6.5, 209.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Phoenix has not lost a game this month, but it’s clear their power rating is peaking as they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The betting market has a lot of respect for the Suns and that is represented by this number. Two nights ago, the number plummeted against Brooklyn, closing + 5.5 which Cleveland covered. Tonight, the number is up a point to 7.5 and not showing a sign of coming down. Not only do the Cavaliers still not have Evan Mobley due to an elbow injury, but Darius Garland is also dealing with a neck injury and is questionable to play. If Garland is available the underdog is worth a look here, but can’t fire until his status is official.

Charlotte Hornets (-7, 217) at Orlando Magic

Charlotte is playing fantastic basketball right now. The Hornets are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with a + 5.0 net rating and a defense that is allowing just 102.8 points per 100 possessions over this span. Charlotte is 19th in defensive efficiency this season so it is likely this play on that end of the floor continues, but it is plausible it continues for one more night against an Orlando team that is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Magic averaged just 0.757 points per possession in their loss to the Bucks, but that result did snap a 3-0 ATS run from Orlando. Given we remember what we saw last it is not surprising to see Charlotte get the support at the window this morning, but I would be cautious jumping to lay this number. The Magic live on the 3-point line and the Hornets 24th in frequency of 3-point attempts allowed. A hot shooting night from the underdog could certainly keep them inside an inflated number.

Brooklyn Nets (-2, 215) at Boston Celtics

Boston has found some sort of consistency this month and that shows in its 8-4 SU/7-4-1 ATS record. It has outscored opponents by 5.8 points every 100 possessions and this is with Jaylen Brown playing in just four games in November. Brown returned against Houston on Monday but is considered questionable tonight to play. He reportedly wanted to come back for the primetime spot against Los Angeles on Friday night, so I would expect him to be available tonight. Brooklyn is reaching its low when it comes to power rating. The market crashed on them Monday and they failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites in Cleveland. The overnight line opened Nets -2 but is down to -1 at every shop as of this morning. As solid as the results have been for the Celtics the defense is still somewhat worrisome. They gave up 1.129 points per possession to the Thunder, 1.133 per possession to the Lakers and 1.17 to the Hawks. Brooklyn is in the midst of a 0-3-1 ATS slide and it has one cover in six games, but their offense still put up 113.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. Give me the Nets in a buy-low spot here. The line could move to Celtics -1 should Brown come off the report, but Brooklyn is the play here with the assumption Brown will be available. 

Play: Nets (-1)

*Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks (-14, 213.5)

The Bucks are starting to get healthier and the result is the bully that likes to pick on the weak. Milwaukee demolished Orlando on Monday, beating them by 31 points and posting a + 61.6 net rating. Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are playing together with regularity for the first time all season and the result is a 4-0 SU run with the win over the Magic snapping an 0-5 ATS slide. This number is up -15 tonight because the Pistons are on the second leg of a back-to-back and were blown out 33-16 in the fourth by Miami. The Bucks would routinely blow out bad teams at the peak of their powers, but Donte DiVincenzo and Brook Lopez are still out of commission. This might too much too soon for the home team, especially once you consider Detroit did hold a double-digit lead over Miami last night.

Utah Jazz (-11.5, 210) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Last time out Utah blew a double-digit lead to Memphis and lost as a 10.5-point favorite at home. Tonight, they are up to -12.5 on the road against Oklahoma City which is 9-2 ATS in its 11 games this month. The Thunder will not have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again tonight as he deals with an ankle sprain and that why this line is as high as it is. Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense will be tested tonight. The Thunder allow opponents to take 41.1% of their attempts from deep and they rank 22nd in opponent shooting with 36.2% allowed. Utah takes 45.1% of its attempts from deep and is shooting 35.3% a team. If the Thunder can hold up on the 3-point line they might be able to stay within a large number at home even without their best player.

Chicago Bulls (-7.5, 217.5) at Houston Rockets

Chicago was in a terrible spot at home against Indiana on Monday, playing in the second leg of a back-to-back against an improving defensive team. The result was their worst loss of the season, but they get to bounce back in a big way tonight. Houston’s average closing number this month is + 8.5 but they are 3-8 ATS and have failed cover by an average of 4.8 points per game. Alex Caruso is questionable to play, as is Nikola Vucevic who has missed time with COVID. Regardless of the status of these two players there really is not a strong case to be made for the underdog here given what we have seen from them.

*Miami Heat (-1.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

Miami stumbled through three quarters of play against Detroit last night before clamping down in the final quarter and taking the game from there. Now, they face a red-hot Minnesota team that is 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in its last seven games with a + 11.8 net rating. The Timberwolves have not faced the stiffest of competition with wins over the Pelicans, Grizzlies, Spurs and Kings, so this is a massive step up for the young team. The Heat are still a skilled defensive team that limited the Pistons to 1.0 point per possession last night. The market is charging its usual back-to-back tax, but it seems somewhat reactionary to make Minnesota a favorite here.

Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies (-4, 217)

Memphis got a massive win in Utah on Monday, but is still 4-5 ATS in its last nine games with a -7.2 net rating. De’Anthony Melton is still out and Dillon Brooks is questionable to play as well, and that is certainly why the market is down to Grizzlies -3 at most shops. Toronto has its own injury concerns with Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby questionable as well, but it does seem that at least one of those two is trending toward playing. This matchup comes down to the perimeter. Memphis is giving up 41.4% to opponents from beyond the arc and allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Their offense has been enough to keep them in games despite poor defensive performances, and that could be the case again here should the Raptors be short-handed once more. 

Washington Wizards (-3, 208.5) at New Orleans Pelicans

Washington is a team that I have pegged as overvalued by the betting market, and they are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The Wizards’ opponent will be on my card often over the next couple of weeks, but tonight is not one of those night. New Orleans is 3-9 ATS this month with a -10.1 net rating and an offense that is putting up 102.1 points per 100 possessions. They are a bet-against team and I do not blame the market for pushing this number up to -4 at every shop. Washington has more than enough on defense to handle this offense, and their own offensive attack should be able to exploit a team allowing opponents to shoot 67.5% at the rim, an area in which the Wizards rank first in shooting (69.7%).

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, 221) at San Antonio Spurs

Make it 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS for Atlanta in its last five after it won, but failed to cover, against Oklahoma City on Monday. Their offensive rating of 120.8 over this win streak leads the league and their defense has improved greatly. As a result, the Hawks have outscored opponents by 14.4 points per 100 possessions during this run. It is hard to see how a Spurs team that is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS with a -12.1 net rating in its last five contests gets in the way. San Antonio’s offense has been atrocious, scoring just 102.0 points per 100 possessions and shooting just 33.5% from deep. Doug McDermott, their best shooter, is questionable tonight as well. The power rating is likely at its peak for Atlanta, but there are much better teams to test that theory with. 

*Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 223.5) at Sacramento Kings

Portland has won and covered four straight heading into tonight, but all four of those games were at home where it is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS with a + 11.7 net rating. The road has been a different story for the Trail Blazers. Away from home they are just 1-7 SU and ATS with the lone win coming over the Rockets. Their net rating on the road of -11.5 is the opposite of their rating at home, but this situation could be different. Damian Lillard is breaking out of his shooting slump and last night he put up 25 points on 5-of-8 shooting from deep. Against a Kings team that is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine with a 111.5 defensive rating this is a good spot for Portland to exorcise its road demons.

Play: Trail Blazers (-2)

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors (-10, 217.5)

Seth Curry, Danny Green and Tobia Harris are questionable to play. Joel Embiid is still out with COVID. Philadelphia is 2-6 SU and ATS with a a 113.8 defensive rating which is 27th in the league since Embiid’s absence. Is this really a situation you want to get yourself into? Golden State could name the score here if it wanted, but with a day off on the horizon and Portland coming to town on Friday it is certainly plausible the Warriors look past this opponent much like they did with Charlotte just over a week ago.

Best Bets Summary

Nets (-1)

Trail Blazers (-2)

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