NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/17

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, November 16th

Last week Steph Curry became the favorite at DraftKings to win his third MVP award, and last night he showed the world why that was the case. Curry scored 37 points on 12-of-19 shooting from the floor while hitting 9-of-14 3-point attempts. He added seven rebounds and five assists, and he did it all in 29 minutes of work. According to StatMuse, it is his fifth career game with more than 35 points in less than 30 minutes, the most by any player in the 3-point era. He was also getting it done on the other end of the floor.

 

 

It was clear the Warriors wanted to win that one in a big way. Steve Kerr threw out both a box-and-one and triangle-and-two defense at times, and the result was Brooklyn averaging just 0.952 points per possession. It was an incredible performance all the way around for Golden State and it ended up being the lone underdog to cash on a quiet night in the NBA.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 17th

There are 11 games on the card tonight, so let’s get this process started.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Indiana Pacers (-6, 211.5) at Detroit Pistons

The loss to New York on Monday ruined a 6-1 ATS run for Indiana but they have an opportunity to get back to it in Detroit tonight. In November the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 3.1 points every 100 possessions, and their 111.4 offensive rating is one of best in the NBA this month. It was clear on Monday the Pacers missed Chris Duarte in their starting lineup, and he is questionable again tonight. With Duarte in their starting lineup along with Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner the team has a + 16.5 net rating. This team is starting to get better after a disappointing start and should Duarte be available it would be a team that is worth supporting going forward. Detroit is coming off a poor showing against Sacramento in which it put up 0.909 points per possession and lost by 22 points. Against inflated favorites the Pistons might be live underdogs, but I would not want to get in front of Indiana with this team.

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-2.5, 222.5)

Washington comes into this contest 5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS in its last five games with a + 11.6 net rating. It is obviously very impressive what this team has been able to do through the first 13 games of the season, but we are near the point where there is going to be some value playing against this team in the market. This line opened Hornets -2.5 and immediately went to -1.5 at the shops with numbers up overnight. This is a real test for the Wizards which have been struggling on offense despite the hot start to the season. Washington comes in ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, managing just 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Despite facing the 28th, 29th and 30th ranked defenses in the league during this win streak they have managed just 108.3 points per 100 possessions. This could be a problem against an efficient offense like Charlotte. The Hornets average 110.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and have a massive edge in this contest along the perimeter. Charlotte ranks third in 3-point shooting at 37.9% and they average 13.4 3-pointers made per game. Those figures are much better than Washington which is shooting 31.8% and averaging 10.7 made 3-point attempts per game. The Wizards have quietly been one of the worst rim defenses in the NBA, allowing 67.5% on attempts within four feet, something that might be a problem for a team that lives on dribble penetration and takes 36.7% of their attempts at the rim. I’m willing to lay a cheap number with a team finding its own stride in Charlotte which is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games.

Play: Hornets (-1.5)

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