NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/17

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, November 16th

Last week Steph Curry became the favorite at DraftKings to win his third MVP award, and last night he showed the world why that was the case. Curry scored 37 points on 12-of-19 shooting from the floor while hitting 9-of-14 3-point attempts. He added seven rebounds and five assists, and he did it all in 29 minutes of work. According to StatMuse, it is his fifth career game with more than 35 points in less than 30 minutes, the most by any player in the 3-point era. He was also getting it done on the other end of the floor.

 

 

It was clear the Warriors wanted to win that one in a big way. Steve Kerr threw out both a box-and-one and triangle-and-two defense at times, and the result was Brooklyn averaging just 0.952 points per possession. It was an incredible performance all the way around for Golden State and it ended up being the lone underdog to cash on a quiet night in the NBA.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 17th

There are 11 games on the card tonight, so let’s get this process started.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Indiana Pacers (-6, 211.5) at Detroit Pistons

The loss to New York on Monday ruined a 6-1 ATS run for Indiana but they have an opportunity to get back to it in Detroit tonight. In November the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 3.1 points every 100 possessions, and their 111.4 offensive rating is one of best in the NBA this month. It was clear on Monday the Pacers missed Chris Duarte in their starting lineup, and he is questionable again tonight. With Duarte in their starting lineup along with Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner the team has a + 16.5 net rating. This team is starting to get better after a disappointing start and should Duarte be available it would be a team that is worth supporting going forward. Detroit is coming off a poor showing against Sacramento in which it put up 0.909 points per possession and lost by 22 points. Against inflated favorites the Pistons might be live underdogs, but I would not want to get in front of Indiana with this team.

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-2.5, 222.5)

Washington comes into this contest 5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS in its last five games with a + 11.6 net rating. It is obviously very impressive what this team has been able to do through the first 13 games of the season, but we are near the point where there is going to be some value playing against this team in the market. This line opened Hornets -2.5 and immediately went to -1.5 at the shops with numbers up overnight. This is a real test for the Wizards which have been struggling on offense despite the hot start to the season. Washington comes in ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, managing just 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Despite facing the 28th, 29th and 30th ranked defenses in the league during this win streak they have managed just 108.3 points per 100 possessions. This could be a problem against an efficient offense like Charlotte. The Hornets average 110.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and have a massive edge in this contest along the perimeter. Charlotte ranks third in 3-point shooting at 37.9% and they average 13.4 3-pointers made per game. Those figures are much better than Washington which is shooting 31.8% and averaging 10.7 made 3-point attempts per game. The Wizards have quietly been one of the worst rim defenses in the NBA, allowing 67.5% on attempts within four feet, something that might be a problem for a team that lives on dribble penetration and takes 36.7% of their attempts at the rim. I’m willing to lay a cheap number with a team finding its own stride in Charlotte which is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games.

Play: Hornets (-1.5)

New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat (-9.5, 208)

It is a lengthy injury report for Miami today so keep updating those feeds as the day goes on. Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Dewayne Dedmon are all listed as questionable to play and Markieff Morris is out. Butler has not played since spraining his ankle against the Clippers last week, and Adebayo missed his first game with a knee bruise last time out. New Orleans is in a free-fall at this point, posting a 1-11 SU/2-10 ATS record over its last 11 games with a -9.3 net rating. The team is putting up jut 103.8 points per 100 possessions on offense, and against a Miami team that is allowing just 104.7 per 100 possessions on defense there is no case to be made for the Pelicans to stay within this number. The questions surrounding Butler and Adebayo have caused this line to dip to -8.5 but should either of those two play bettors can expect this to find its way back to the opening number. I would also expect this total to continue its downward trajectory considering the struggles this Pelicans team could have against the Heat defense.

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks (-11, 209)

New York got back to its winning ways with a victory over Indiana on Monday, but this is still not a team bettors should be comfortable laying this number of points with. They still struggle in allowing open perimeter attempts to opponents and their offense continues to be inefficient on a night-to-night basis and overly reliant on 3-point shots falling. In November the Knicks are getting outscored by 3.8 points per 100 possessions and their 105.4 offensive rating this month ranks 23rd in the NBA. Tonight they have to face an Orlando team which takes 41.7% of its attempts from the perimeter. The Magic only shoot 33.9% as a team, but against the Knicks which allow so many open attempts that might be a problem. Just look at when these teams last met in New York when Orlando shot 39.0% on 41 attempts. The line is holding strong at -11 but for me it would be underdog or pass with an inflated line like this. 

Cleveland Cavaliers at *Brooklyn Nets (-11, 208)

Cleveland’s dream start to the season is in danger of falling apart. Evan Mobley was lost for 2-4 weeks with a sprained right elbow and the injury report continues to grow. Jarrett Allen will miss tonight with an illness, Lauri Markkanen is still making his way back from COVID protocol and Collin Sexton is still recovering from a torn meniscus in his knee. At some point the personnel losses are too much to overcome and tonight is a bad night to catch Brooklyn. The Nets were blown out last night by the Warriors, but do not think this is a tired team. Kevin Durant and James Harden were benched for the night with nine minutes left in the game and only played 32 minutes each. One would expect both to be ready to go tonight, but as always, monitor the reports. The betting market likes to charge teams a point or so for playing on no rest which is why this line is down to -10.5 for Brooklyn, but with the cluster injuries for Cleveland it is hard to back a limping underdog in this spot. 

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, 214.5)

The Hawks have won two straight since an 0-6 SU and ATS slide to start the month, and tonight they get a potentially short-handed Celtics team. Jaylen Brown is still recovering from a hamstring strain and Robert Williams is dealing with tendinopathy in his knee which limited him to just 13 minutes on Monday against Cleveland. Having said that, the Celtics are dealing with adversity well. The team is 5-2 SU/5-1-1 ATS in its last six games and has outscored those opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions. The news of Williams injury is likely why this line is up to Atlanta -4.5 in one shop but that seems somewhat overzealous for a team dealing with its own injury issues. De’Andre Hunter was lost for two months after he needed to underdog wrist surgery and both Kevin Huerter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable to play tonight. Oh, and then there’s still this pesky matter of the Hawks being the fourth-worst defense in the league at 112.5 points per 100 possessions allowed in non-garbage time minutes. Boston is getting better, even as it deals with injury, and I am willing to take some points against a poor defensive team like Atlanta.

Play: Celtics (+ 4.5)

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5, 219.5)

This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee tonight, but have you ever stopped to consider that Los Angeles is just bad? After getting slapped by the Bulls on Monday night the Lakers now rank 25th in net rating (-5.0), ahead of only the Pelicans, Thunder, Magic, Rockets and Pistons. Their offense is managing just 104.8 points per 100 possessions and their halfcourt offense is managing to score just 90.7 points every 100 plays. There has been little to tempt me, but this line did make me think twice. The Lakers have closed as an underdog just three times this season, the largest number being 5.5 in Portland about two weeks ago. This number is clearly the market adjusting its perception of Los Angeles and there might finally be a smidge of value in betting on the Lakers. Milwaukee is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games with a -5.2 net rating. Its offense has struggled immensely at 107.1 points per 100 possessions and the defense has been worse over those six games (112.3) than Los Angeles (107.6). Khris Middleton is set to rejoin the team tonight after missing eight games with COVID, but he should not be expected to have a massive impact after such a long absence. They will not make my card tonight, but I completely agree with anyone who wants to include the Lakers on a wager tonight.

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 212.5)

Houston’s lone win this season came at home against Oklahoma City, but things have turned quite a bit since that game. The Rockets are 0-12 SU/4-8 ATS with a league-worst -13.6 net rating. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 5-6 SU/7-4 ATS with a -5.6 net rating. It is clear which of these teams is getting better and the Thunder have revenge on the mind tonight as well. Neither team will be confused for the Brooklyn Nets on offense, but the difference in this contest will be on defense. Since their last meeting, Houston has allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions, good for 25th in the NBA. Oklahoma City has the 12th-ranked defense over the last 11 games and has allowed just 105.8 points per 100 possessions. When they played in October I though the Thunder would be the side and they were wiped out. The market believes that here today and Oklahoma City is up to -4 almost everywhere, a move I agree with.

Play: Thunder (-3.5)

Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 224)

In a contest between two extremely inconsistent teams the best strategy is to scratch it off the card. The Kings snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide with a win in Detroit on Monday, but they remain one of the biggest underachievers in the league. Despite a 3-5 record in the month of November the Kings have aa + 4.1 net rating which is 11th-best this month. How in the world have they dropped so many games? Minnesota comes in with just one win to its name since Oct. 30 and over that stretch they are 2-7 ATS with a -8.2 net rating. Both of those covers for the Timberwolves have come in the last three games, but their offense has been terrible at 101.3 points per 100 possessions over this span. The market has not budged on this game which is indicative of two-way action or no action. I would choose the latter.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-9, 220)

Bettors saw Luka Doncic injure his ankle in the waning seconds of the Mavericks’ win over the Nuggets on Monday, and he is going to miss this game as a result. Dallas has been one of the more fortunate teams in the league, posting a + 2.7 win differential and a 9-4 record despite getting outscored on the season by 0.5 points per 100 possessions. Without Doncic on the floor there is a danger that this gets bad very quickly for the Mavericks. Phoenix had its cover run snapped in the win over Minnesota, but is still in control of the longest active win streak at nine straight with a + 11.4 net rating. Doncic’s absence is baked into the number here, so do not run to lay the points with the home team just because he is not on the floor.

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5, 222)

This is the penultimate contest in a five-game road trip for Chicago, and while it might seem like the spot to play against them the injury report gives me pause. Damian Lillard and Norm Powell are questionable to play, but the more worrisome injury is Lillard’s. He has been dealing with this abdominal injury for some time and played 40 minutes on Monday while clearly feeling it. If Lillard does not go this spot goes out the door and even then, how healthy is he at this point? Portland was circled by me a few days ago in this situation, but the injury situation now has me on the sidelines for this one.

Best Bets Summary

Hornets (-1)

Celtics (+ 4)

Thunder (-3.5)

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