NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/16

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 16, 2022 09:07 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

Market Report for Wednesday, November 16th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-21 | Units: -6.31 | ROI: -18.54%

None for now, but will be monitoring the total for Toronto and Miami. I am looking to bet it Under but the return of Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent is getting the market to bet the game up

The Rest

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets (-2, 232)

Charlotte has now had LaMelo Ball back for two games, and they have played two of their better offensive games of the season as a result. Tonight, they get to play Indiana which ranks third in pace (102.7 possessions per game) and 26th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (114.8), so it would seem that this has a high-scoring affair written all over it and the market is responding as you would expect, betting this total up to 233 consensus. Charlotte benefitted on Monday from facing an Orlando team with one true ball-handler and that showed up in a defensive turnover rate of 22.8%, something that is unlikely to happen in this game against Indiana. The Pacers have a 7-0 ATS run on the line tonight, but it is at risk due to the injury report. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with an ankle sprain, and him missing this game would have a great effect on both the side and total.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-6, 224) at Orlando Magic

Orlando wraps up a seven-game homestand tonight against Minnesota, and it has been a successful one with a 4-2 ATS record. However, the team’s lack of ball-handlers showed up in a big way on Monday when it committed 22 turnovers in the loss to Charlotte. That is not an issue that is likely to be exploited by the massive Timberwolves, but it would be nice for the Magic to get Paolo Banchero back on the floor as he has missed the last three games. Banchero practiced on Sunday, so it seems a return is close but as I was burned by that on Monday it is always wise to confirm the player’s status. Orlando could also be without Wendell Carter Jr. tonight, as he has popped up on the injury report. Minnesota has been very poor this season, but they are good enough to take advantage of an injury-riddled squad, as evidenced by their win over the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. There has not been much movement on the side or total here, and that is likely due to the injuries for Orlando.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards (-5, 225.5)

Bradley Beal is expected to make his return from health and safety protocols tonight against Oklahoma City which is a great piece to get back for a team already on a 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS run. Washington has a good advantage in this matchup already with its ability to rebound as well as it does. The Thunder’s lack of size has them 24th in overall rebounding rate (48.8%) and they are tasked with facing a Wizards front line that grabs 50.4% of all available rebounds and 74.4% of opponent missed shot attempts. In other words, second chance points will not be readily available for this Oklahoma City squad tonight, and that is a problem for a team that is not overly efficient on offense and averaging just 111.5 points per 100 possessions. The Thunder’s once reliable defense is also being tested on this road trip, giving up 1.186 points per possession over the last two games, and as a result both have flown Over the total by 20 and 54 points. This is probably why the market is up to 228 consensus.

Miami Heat (-1, 215) at Toronto Raptors

There are a lot of important names on the injury report here, so this game is nearly impossible to handicap preflop. Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon are questionable for Miami, and Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. are questionable for Toronto. If neither VanVleet nor Trent are available it would mean the Raptors are down three starters and one of their primary bench pieces once again, and while that might fly against the Detroit Pistons it will not work as well against Miami. It’s worth noting that the Heat are 7-2-1 to the Over in its last 10 games, and a look at the numbers shows two things: An offense which has averaged 114.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and a defense which has allowed 113.6 per 100 possessions. Over the course of these 10 games Miami has still averaged only 97.8 possessions per game, and against a similarly paced team like Toronto - which could be missing three of its top four scorers tonight - this could be an opportunity for this run to end.

Boston Celtics (-3, 232.5) at Atlanta Hawks

Malcolm Brogdon has been upgraded to questionable and is likely going to make his return tonight for Boston. That is a good thing for a Celtics defense which is starting to show some consistency over the last few games. Boston has held four of its last five opponents to an offensive rating of 108.2 or worse, and they enter this game 7-0 SU/4-3 ATS in their last seven games. The real matchup here is going to be the Celtics’ offense against the Hawks’ surprisingly effective defense. Atlanta has allowed just 110.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, and it must slow down Boston which leads the league in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (119.7). Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric shows the Hawks allowing an effective field goal percentage of 54.6% if opponents shot league average from their spots, a number which is far off from their actual allowed percentage (51.2%). If that regresses tonight it would not be a shock to see Boston extend its winning streak, but the market has shaved a half-point off this line as it is now 2.5 consensus.

Chicago Bulls at *New Orleans Pelicans (-3, 226.5)

Zion Williamson did not play last night against Memphis and New Orleans was able to win and cover its third of four games. Williamson’s status for tonight will alter this line as well, so obviously make sure to confirm his status before diving in. Having said that, Chicago comes in looking to snap out of a 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS funk in which its defense is starting to show its true colors. Bulls opponents have put up 113.9 points per 100 possessions during this five-game stretch, and one of those opponents was the Pelicans which went into Chicago and grabbed a 115-111 victory. Both side and total have been stuck on the open due to Williamson’s injury status, so don’t expect much movement until that clears up.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 220)

This is one of the best games on the board, but unfortunately it is ruined by a lengthy injury report for both teams. Donovan Mitchell, who missed the loss to Minnesota, is questionable, Dean Wade is doubtful and Jarrett Allen is still out for Cleveland. Meanwhile, Grayson Allen and Jrue Holiday are questionable for Milwaukee. Pat Connaughton could make his season debut tonight, but this rash of injuries is starting to weigh on the Bucks. They are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games, three of which Holiday has missed, and Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out two of them. Until the injury noise calms down for the Bucks it's hard to get a read on them, and this number could have a ton of volatility because of the injury report. Until we get some clarity this game will likely just sit on the opening side and total.

Houston Rockets at *Dallas Mavericks (-10.5, 220.5)

Dallas' run of non-covers continued last night when it blew a 25-point lead against the Los Angeles Clippers and needed some Luka Doncic heroics to save the victory. The Mavericks are now 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games, and it must be pointed out that it is due to this terrible bench. The Mavericks got 15 points from their reserves last night, all of them coming from Christian Wood. Dallas is averaging just 104.0 points per 100 possessions without Doncic on the floor, and it is leading to blown leads and failed covers. Tonight, they are the second leg of a back-to-back so it is always beneficial to monitor the injury report to see if Doncic is going to get a night off, as he is playing 37.2 minutes per game and coming off a 40 minute night. The market has done its usual thing of shaving off a point from the team playing with no rest, but how can one continue to play Dallas while these numbers remain this high? Houston comes in after a night off, but this offense continues to scuffle around. The Clippers held them to 1.01 points per possession in their loss on Monday, and while the Mavericks cannot score without Doncic they can still defend, as they only allow 1.06 points per possession without him on the floor. The total is up to 221 consensus, but I would not expect that to go much higher than that given the offensive struggles that can be seen from both teams and Dallas’ ability to play at its own pace which is slowest in the league at 95.36 possessions per game.

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns (-2, 226)

Golden State has won three of four games and their defense has found its footing in allowing just 105.9 points per 100 possessions during this run. The team is still only 2-2 ATS in those four games, but the improvements are what you like to see. Now, they enter a really intriguing spot against Phoenix who is back home after a tough east coast trip in which they went 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS. Chris Paul is questionable once again, as this heel injury which has caused him to miss the last three games continues to nag him. What makes this game interesting is the revenge factor for the Warriors. Golden State came to Phoenix three weeks ago and were blown out after Klay Thompson was ejected in a surprisingly fiery regular season affair. Now, they return to face the Suns who are short-handed and back from a road trip. It would seem like a great time to back the Warriors, and the market is doing just that with this line as low as PK at some shops.

*New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets (-4.5, 232.5)

It is a challenging scheduling spot for New York to play on a back-to-back in Denver after just beating the Jazz at home, but they get some good luck from an injury standpoint. Nikola Jokic was placed in the health & safety protocols on Tuesday and will not play tonight as a result. Bones Hyland is doubtful as he has been in protocol and missed the last three games and is likely to miss this one, and Aaron Gordon is doubtful with a non-COVID illness. It would shock no one to say that the Nuggets need Jokic on the court. In the possessions without him on the floor Denver has a -18.8 net rating, and its offense can only muster 104.4 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks have not been playing inspiring basketball recently, but it's hard to make a case for the Nuggets until Jokic returns to action. This number is down to 3.5 consensus as of this morning and if Gordon does not go expect it to continue to drop in favor of New York.

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