NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/10


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, November 9th

It was a short slate last night so there is not much to point out other than the fact that the Los Angeles Clippers are now on a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS run. This team is real and it's getting better, something bettors should be aware of in a wide-open Western Conference.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 10th

Big schedule today so let’s get right to it folks.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Washington Wizards (-4, 212) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Since Oct. 23 the Cleveland Cavaliers are 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS with each win coming as an underdog. They are in that familiar role yet again tonight against a Washington team that has won and covered its last two. Some might feel sheepish on backing Cleveland yet again tonight after the loss of Collin Sexton to a knee injury, but that might not be as sever a blow as some think. Sexton is playing about seven fewer minutes per game this season than last, and his scoring average is down 8.3 points per game. The Cavaliers’ most successful backcourt pairing is Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio which is + 19.3 per 100 possessions when Sexton is off the floor. This matchup comes down to efficiency at the rim. Washington leads the league in rim shooting (71.6%) and Cleveland owns the fifth-best rim defense (59.8%). With Evan Mobley on the floor that drops to 57.6% allowed, and if the Wizards are not able to operate within four feet it will be a problem for this offense. Given what we know about both teams it is not surprising to see the market move toward Cleveland, and bettors should grab a solid number while the chance is there.

Play: Cavaliers (+ 4)

Brooklyn Nets (-9, 209.5) at Orlando Magic

Last time we saw Brooklyn they looked like a team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, giving up 42 points in the fourth quarter to Chicago. The market has clearly been turned off from the lack of consistency from this team and that is reflected in a number that is cheaper than it should be. Orlando was + 11 three days ago against Utah, + 7.5 when it hosted Boston and + 5.5 when Charlotte came to town. This number is telling bettors that the Nets are two points worse than the Jazz, only 1.5 points better than the Celtics and just 3.5 points better than the Hornets. Clearly those are inaccurate numbers for Brooklyn, but can we count on them to show up for four quarters? That is question bettors must answer here. Personally, while I believe there is some real line value here, I cannot bring myself to lay this number after being burned by their effort in the fourth quarter on Monday. Consider me jaded.

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics (-2.5, 209.5)

When these two teams met in the second game of the season the betting market had Boston -7.5 in a game they would go on to lose outright. Jaylen Brown is not available tonight, but he is not worth five points to the spread. Clearly the market has adjusted on both teams, and rightfully so. Homecourt has been worth two points thus far this season, so this number would put these two on even footing, which is accurate when they are at full strength, but what about a Celtics team without Brown? Without Brown on the floor Boston is outscored by 8.5 points every 100 possessions and their offense is limited to a 104.8 efficiency rating. Toronto has lost and failed to cover its last two games, and now they are working Pascal Siakam back in the rotation after he returned from injury in their last contest. The loss of Brown makes the Raptors the more logical side to back, but it is not a coincidence they posted their lowest individual game offensive rating in Siakam’s return. It will take a few games to work a player with such a large, expected minute load back into the rotation. 

*Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks (-2.5, 215.5)

With Milwaukee coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back injury reports are not due for them until later in the day, so keep that in mind before you handicap this contest. New York could be short-handed up front with both Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel listed as questionable this morning, and if neither play the Knicks could be up against it in defending Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. With Antetokounmpo on the floor Milwaukee takes 34.6% of its attempts within four feet and they shoot 69.6% on those attempts. New York has been great in its defense of the rim this season, coming into tonight second at 57.7% allowed on attempts in the restricted area, but their perimeter defense will be tested. The Knicks rank 22nd in opponent shooting on 3-pointers (36.0%) and they face a Bucks team that is taking 41.3% of its attempts from deep. The struggles along the perimeter have caused New York to fall to 23rd in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (109.9) and that inability to defend the perimeter has led to some inconsistency. The betting market moved to -3 at the shops with this number on the board and that is not surprising as we usually see this reaction to teams playing on no rest. 

Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets (-1.5, 210.5)

I will be honest, I am surprised you’re reading the preview on this game. There is an intriguing nature to this contest, but that just comes from watching young players in the early portion of their career. From a betting perspective there are many better games to wager on. Having said that, the line here does stick out to me. Houston has been the pluckier of the two franchises against the number, coming into this contest with a 5-5 ATS record and covers in three of their last five games. Both teams have really struggled on offense but the Rockets have shown more life on the defensive end of the floor than Detroit has. Houston has limited opponents to 33.4% from the perimeter and 91.0 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, both marks ranking in the top half of the league. The Rockets are power rated ever so slightly ahead of the Pistons in my ratings, but that is with Kevin Porter Jr. in the lineup who is currently questionable to play tonight. There are few shops with this number up, but it would not be surprising to see Houston close -2.5 if Porter plays tonight.

Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 227.5)

Memphis is getting away with murder on defense and today is the day they finally pay for it. On Monday the Grizzlies took advantage of a Timberwolves collapse and got away with a win and cover in overtime. However, their 30th-ranked defense still allowed 1.126 points per possession and that will not work against Charlotte. The Hornets have their issues on defense, but their offense is still among the best in the NBA at 111.4 points per 100 possessions and their offensive style should be able to take advantage of the Grizzlies defense. Memphis allowing opponents to take 33.5% of their attempts at the rim while shooting 67.4%. Their perimeter defense is among the worst in the NBA at 39.8% allowed to opposing shooters. Charlotte’s offense is built around drive-and-kick opportunities and that has led to the fourth-highest frequency of attempts at the rim (36.9%) and the third-highest 3-point shooting mark (38.2%). There is not much separating these teams in my power ratings but this number would tell you that the Grizzlies are 2.5 or more points better on a neutral. 

Play: Hornets (+ 4.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (-4, 211.5)

Brandon Ingram has not played since Oct. 29 and it is no coincidence that the Pelicans have been abhorrent on offense since then, averaging 101.6 points per 100 possessions while going 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in the games he has missed. Without Ingram it is not possible to say this team is unequivocally better than Oklahoma City. New Orleans is worse in net rating (-13.0) and defensive rating (114.1) and the Thunder come into this contest 5-1 ATS in its last six games and on a two-game winning streak. Ingram is considered questionable to play tonight so should he play it drastically alters their chances of winning and covering this game. If he is not available this number should be much closer to -1.5 for the home team.

Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls (-3.5, 212.5)

Despite a 7-3 record for Dallas it is 3-6-1 ATS and has failed to cover consecutive games this season. The market is clearly higher on the Mavericks than it should be and tonight they face a Bulls team that continues to deliver at every turn. Chicago is now 7-3 SU and ATS after a win over Brooklyn at home on Monday. Their offense exploded in the fourth quarter for 42 points against Brooklyn but was limited to just 72 in the three quarters prior. Despite that there should still be some concern about this offense with the absences of Coby White and Patrick Williams still effecting this team. The bench scored just 27 points and shot 3-of-9 from deep. Those types of performances will not hold up over a larger sample size of games. The betting market has not touched this side yet, but the total ranges from 212 to 213 depending on the shop so bettors should get the best number when betting Over or Under. I would expect this total to drop given the potential offensive struggles we could see from these two tonight. 

Sacramento Kings (-1, 221.5) at San Antonio Spurs

Sacramento has dropped its last two contests both SU and ATS, and tonight they come in with the status of Tyrese Haliburton still in question due to a back injury. Against a team like Phoenix that is a blow, but here against San Antonio it might not be as impactful if Haliburton cannot go. The Spurs have covered four of six but this offense has been abysmal in averaging just 102.1 points per 100 possessions. Jakob Poeltl is still in COVID protocol as well which has hurt this offense quite a bit. The Kings deserve to be favored here, but their inconsistency on defense and potential absence of Haliburton make them a shaky road favorite.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-7, 221.5)

Minnesota is now 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games and is coming off an epic collapse in Memphis on Monday. It is somewhat surprising to see such a low number for Golden State here considering the recent form of the Timberwolves and the numbers the Warriors put up against similar opponents. Golden State was -6 against both Memphis and Charlotte, two teams that power rate significantly better than Minnesota. The Timberwolves were just catching 4.5 in Memphis and now are only catching a point less than what the Grizzlies were when they visited Golden State? The Warriors have won and covered five straight and it would not be surprising to see that extended to six after tonight given the recent play of the Timberwolves.

Miami Heat (-4.5, 214.5) at Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are coming off a buy-low win and cover in overtime over Charlotte and now they host a potentially short-handed Heat team. Both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are questionable to play, and if those two are not available Miami is significantly worse on both ends of the floor. When Adebayo is off the floor the Heat give up 112.1 points per 100 possessions and Herro is their lone offensive creator off the bench. Should neither of those two suit up tonight the Lakers would obviously be in much better shape but I would expect this number to drop to about 1.5 were that to happen. Like many games in an NBA season this one is based on information so keep those apps handy.

Best Bet Summary

Cavalier (+ 4)

Hornets (+ 4.5)

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