NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 11/9

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 9, 2022 08:33 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Wednesday, November 9th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 14-16 | Units: -2.72 | ROI: -9.53%

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, 225)

New York has been extremely inconsistent to this point of the season, but one thing that sticks out is the Knicks’ consistently poor defense against elite offensive opponents. They allowed 1.371 points per possession to Boston last Saturday and had no defensive option for the wing duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum who combined for 56 points while four other scorers put up 12 or more points. It is likely the Knicks are going to struggle to defend Kevin Durant who is averaging 31.0 points and 6.0 rebounds on 49.6% shooting from the floor. However, after an offensive outburst against Washington in the first game without Kyrie Irving, the Nets have put up just 1.055 points per possession in the following two games. Despite that, the number has moved with the Nets tonight and I agree with the move. New York does not have a great option for Durant, and quietly the Nets have handled some inconsistent offensive opponents, limiting their last five foes to 102.7 points per 100 possessions.

Play: Nets (-2.5)

Best Bet Recap

Nets (-2.5)

The Rest

Dallas Mavericks (-7, 216.5) at Orlando Magic

Dallas has not covered a number since its win at Brooklyn on Oct. 27, making it 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games. Over the course of those five games the Mavericks have a +1.4 net rating and a 4-1 SU record, both of which are perfectly fine when it comes to winning games, but not covering. Dallas has gone off as the favorite in every one of those contests, laying an average of 7 points which is not conducive to covering if you’re just barely getting by like the Mavericks have. Having said that, Dallas’ struggles have not stopped the line moving in their favor here, but that might be due to the questionable status of Paolo Banchero as opposed to support for the Mavericks. Dallas is dealing with its own injuries as well. Christian Wood is out and not even with the team, meaning he is likely out Thursday as well.

Portland Trail Blazers (-6, 221.5) at Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte has lost and failed to cover its last five games and is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in its last eight affairs. Poor health is the driving force behind this poor play, and that will not be getting better tonight against Portland, as Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball are both listed as out once more. The Hornets’ offense has been abysmal because of these injuries, averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time during this five-game losing streak. Portland has been a much more effective team than originally thought, but the opening number of -6 was too high and the market has seemingly corrected itself with a consensus number of -4.5 as of this morning. The total is also down from the open to 220.5 at most shops.

Denver Nuggets (-5.5, 234.5) at Indiana Pacers

Indiana’s offense continues to have success against lesser defensive opponents, as evidenced on Monday when it put up 1.28 points per possession in the win over New Orleans. Tonight, the Pacers get the Nuggets who rank 22nd in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (114.2) and 25th in transition defense (132.8). Indiana averages 115.8 points per 100 possessions on offense and 1.376 points per play in transition, both top 10 marks in the league right now, so it would track that it can have success again tonight. The market has adjusted its rating on the Pacers, and for good reason, as this team is on a 5-0 ATS run. 

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-12, 224.5)

Detroit went 1-3 SU against Boston last season, but 4-0 ATS while catching an average of 12.25 points per game. That is what this game opened at, but we have since seen this drop down to -11.5 at most shops. The Pistons had their best defensive effort of the season on Monday when they held the Thunder to 1.01 points per possession in a victory, but this team is still last in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (118.3) and must match up with the second-best offense in the league tonight in Boston (117.6). Given how inconsistent this Celtics defense has been (114.0 points per 100 possessions allowed) it’s hard to swallow a number like this and feel confident when a cheaper in-game opportunity will likely arise tonight.

Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks (-3.5, 226)

This seems to be a relatively big mismatch on paper. Utah comes into this game fourth in offensive rebounding rate (31.3%), second in putback plays generated per 100 missed shot attempts (22.9) and ninth in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts (22.4). Meanwhile, Atlanta is 27th in defensive rebounding rate (68.0%) and 23rd in putback points per 100 missed shot attempts allowed (22.9). It would seem the Jazz have the matchup advantage tonight, given the questionable status of Trae Young it would not be surprising to see this number move toward the underdog at some point. 

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors (-7.5, 224)

Houston snapped an 0-6 SU/1-4-1 ATS slide with its win in Orlando, and in that contest, it put forth its best offensive effort of the season. Tonight, they must find another great offensive effort against a defense that has allowed just 109.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The biggest statistic here will be turnovers. Houston has turned the ball over on 17.2% of its possessions, the third-worst rate in the league, while Toronto has forced a turnover on 17.6% of opponent possessions, the second highest rate. Its why the Raptors lead the NBA in points added per 100 possessions through transition offense off steals. Not surprisingly, this number is now -9 consensus with the total bumped up to 225 across the board.

Phoenix Suns (-4.5, 225.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

On the podcast episode yesterday, I discussed playing Phoenix Suns games under the total given the losses of Cam Johnson and Chris Paul. Well, the betting market has the same idea because this number is down to 222.5 consensus. It’s not a play I can make in the column given the movement of the total and the loss of three full points, but if Paul misses time – he is questionable tonight – it’s going to be an angle worth following. As far as the side is concerned, its not shocking to see this down to Sun -1 with the injuries they have suffered. Minnesota is still the seventh best defensive team in the league, and deserving of some respect against a short-handed opponent.

New Orleans Pelicans (-1, 230) at Chicago Bulls

It would seem we’ve reached a market high on New Orleans, as the team comes in 2-6 ATS in its last eight games and on an 0-4 ATS slide. Still, we see this line now -2 in favor of the Pelicans at multiple shops, so it seems the betting market is not giving up on its belief in this team. Chicago has been a good rebounding team so far this season, grabbing 52.1% of available rebounds and 73.3% of opponent missed shots, which will help in covering this number against New Orleans. The Bulls are also a surprising sixth in defensive efficiency (109.7) and that has led to a 8-4 ATS record to this point.

Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 233) at San Antonio Spurs

One of the early season Cinderella’s has finally turned into a pumpkin. San Antonio covered in its loss to Denver, but the team is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in its last four games with a -19.1 net rating. Their offense, which has been carrying the load during the surprising start to the season, has averaged only 1.012 points per possession during this skid. There’s a chance it could find some better footing against Memphis, but it’s hard to expect this defense, which has allowed 117.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, contain Ja Morant. Steven Adams is questionable which might explain the line moving toward the Grizzlies here, but the Spurs have been getting market support early.

Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5, 220.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City has a real issue with its offense when Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is not on the floor. They put up 111.5 points per 100 possessions when he is on, and they outscore opponents by 1.8 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. However, their offensive rating tanks to 98.1 and they have a -14.6 net rating in those possessions. It’s led to some wild comebacks, but also blown leads. It also leads to a great in-game strategy of playing against Oklahoma City once Gilgeous-Alexander leaves the floor. Jrue Holiday is questionable to play tonight, which explains the line move toward the Thunder, but there is not a single player on this roster physically capabale of matching Giannis Antetokounmpo on defense.

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-6, 222)

The Clippers have won four out of five heading into this game with the Lakers, and Paul George is playing some tremendous basketball in averaging 31.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists during this run. However, the Clippers are still barely managing 108.7 points per 100 possessions despite George’s production which is troubling. A better defensive opponent would be able to ruin this run for the Clippers, but the Lakers have quietly slipped in defense, coming into this contest now 16th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency. The Clippers laying six is a bit much – it was one shop – and this current line of -3.5 is much more in line with what we saw in the season opener.

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