NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Wednesday 10/27


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Tuesday, October 26th

It was a fun night last night in the NBA and another in which the favorites had their way to the tune of a 4-1 SU record. However, underdogs covered the numbers at 3-2 ATS which gave us some tightly contests battles, like the one in Oklahoma City where the Warriors did not take their first lead until the 45 second mark of the third quarter. Three of the five games went under the total on Tuesday, giving them a 32-22 edge through a week of action.

Bettors should keep an eye on the health of Nikola Jokic as well going forward. The reigning MVP tweaked his knee last night and played just 15 minutes of the Nuggets’ loss to the Jazz. For a team struggling to generate offense it won’t bode well to lose him for an extended period of time.

Market Report for Wednesday, October 27th

It is a massive card today and I got this up a bit later in the morning so let’s not waste time and get right to it.

*Indicates team is on second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines listed are opening numbers

Charlotte Hornets (-6, 217) at Orlando Magic

Charlotte projected to be a relatively poor defense this season, and that was finally exposed on Monday as the Celtics dropped 1.219 points per possession and 140 points in a win at Charlotte. The market is clearly very low on Orlando but from a power rating perspective this is quite the leap on the Hornets. This is a team that has been an underdog in three of its four games this season, and the lone spot in which it was favored was by just 2.5 at home against Cleveland. Now the Hornets are laying six on the road after a loss at home in which it was + 2.5 against Boston? It is hard to swallow that many points on the road against a team with the flaws this one has on defense and the market agrees, pushing this down to -5.5 at every shop. Be careful in these spots, as the market will get ahead of itself with bad teams and inflate a favorite like Charlotte that should be more like a 3.5-point favorite here.

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets (-5, 218)

The betting market has made it clear it thinks less of this Brooklyn Nets team over the last few days. After a loss to Charlotte on Sunday at home the Nets opened -8.5 over the Wizards on Monday, but by the time tip-off arrived they were -5.5 in a game they eventually won going away. Today, we are seeing a similar pattern as Brooklyn is down to -4 at most shops after an overnight line -5 was hung. The Nets’ offense is not off to the best start, averaging just 106.8 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and James Harden is averaging just 17.3 points on 36.4% shooting from the floor. However, what do we know about Miami? After blowing out Milwaukee, which was missing two starters and their lead bench player, they lost to Indiana while averaging 0.875 points per possession and beat Orlando. The consistent aspect of this Heat team has been on defense, where it has allowed 91.9 points every 100 possessions and 80.9 every 100 plays in the halfcourt. As a result, we’ve seen this total drop to 217 at most shops which is understandable given the support for the underdog. There is no play for me here, but should this line continue to drop in the range of -3.5 or better count me in on the home team. 

Indiana Pacers (-1, 219) at Toronto Raptors

Two nights ago, I took another flyer on Toronto in their meeting with Chicago, but they ultimately fell by the hook. The Raptors are a real defensive menace, limiting opponents 88.9 points per 100 plays in halfcourt situations and 100.5 points per 100 possessions overall, but their offense is a problem. Through four games their offensive rating of 98.4 is 27th in the NBA and they have zero flow in halfcourt situations. Toronto is putting up just 80.6 points every 100 plays in the halfcourt and shooting just 56.0% at the rim. Their 3-point shooting, which was supposed to be a strength, is non-existent as they are hitting just 27.3% of their attempts from deep so far. Indiana has not been a juggernaut on defense itself, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions, but until the Raptors show the slightest bit of competent play on offense it is hard to make another case for them. The market has not budged on the side, but the total has dropped a whopping four points from the open to 215 at most shops. Through the early portion of the season these are two of the slower paced teams, couple that with the Raptors offensive struggles and it makes sense to drop this total. There is also an interesting wrinkle here, as Caris LeVert seems to be nearing a return. His roll-out should be a slow one, and he should not alter the total if he indeed plays, but something to keep in mind moving forward.

Atlanta Hawks (-6, 220) at New Orleans Pelicans

Atlanta bounced back from a loss at Cleveland on Monday by beating the snot out of Detroit 122-104 at home. Their offense has been somewhat inconsistent to start the season, but their defense has been steady, limiting each opponent to 1.031 points per possession or fewer and 27.4% from the perimeter. It seems like a good matchup against a New Orleans team that has struggled to find its stride on offense. The Pelicans are putting up just 96.9 points per 100 possessions, and they own the 26th and 28th ranked offenses in the halfcourt and transition respectively. Most of their offense is generated from either long mid-range or 3-point range which plays into the hands of Atlanta’s defensive scheme. The betting market has been heading toward New Orleans here, as the Pelicans are down to + 5.5 at most shops. I do not disagree with the move but do not see much value here as I made the number Hawks -5 myself. 

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 226.5)

Through three games the Washington offense has looked extremely poor, averaging just 103.3 points per 100 possessions and being limited to less than a point per possession in two of three games. Even with Bradley Beal on the floor their offense is putting up a 98.6 rating, good for the 11th percentile of lineups so far. The Celtics have had their own issues on offense, averaging just 107.1 points per 100 possessions, but those issues only arise when they go to the bench. With Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on the floor together the Celtics are putting up 1.212 points per possession, which places those lineups in the 97th percentile of qualified lineups at this point of the season. Brown has been dealing with injury but he is not on the injury report today, so bettors can feel confident if they want to back Boston here. Given the offensive issues of Washington and the short-handed nature of this roster (Rui Hachimura not with the team) it is Boston or pass for me here.

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns (-8, 226)

The defending Western Conference champions might have some real issues to conquer this season, especially on defense. Through three games the Suns are giving up 116.4 points per 100 possessions and that damage is being done in all areas. Phoenix has allowed opponents to shoot 66.1% at the rim and 44.5% from deep, that last mark being the worst in the NBA. To make matters worse, their 30th-ranked transition defense from last season is still here, as they are giving up 141.5 points per 100 plays in the fastbreak. Now, they must face a Kings offense which is 9th in pace and 4th offensive efficiency in transition and contain them. Sacramento still has its issues, especially on defense where it has allowed 113.3 points per 100 possessions, but there is still plenty of offensive talent on this roster. Luke Walton’s best lineup has a + 20.0 net rating and an offensive rating of 117.8 in this early part of the season. The market might still be slightly higher on Phoenix than it should be so give me the underdog with the personnel capable of exploiting the Suns’ issues.

Pick: Kings + 8.5

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 234)

It is surprising to see the market not budge on this total yet. Portland and Memphis enter tonight 26th and 30th in defensive efficiency respectively and the Trail Blazers lead the league in pace at this point of the season. Furthermore, these two teams both operate their offense in areas of the floor in which the other struggles. Memphis takes the highest frequency of attempts at the rim and shoots 65.0% on those attempts. Portland ranks 20th in opponent frequency of rim attempts and 28th in opponent shooting within four feet (71.0%). On the flip side, the Trail Blazers take 42.6% of their attempts from deep and they face a Grizzlies defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 40.6% from that area of the floor while giving up 19.0 wide-open 3-point attempts per game. Bettors will want Norm Powell on the court tonight should they bet the Over, as he is questionable with a knee injury that kept him out of the loss to Los Angeles on Monday.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Clippers (-8, 217)

Are the Cavaliers going to be decent this season? They head into Los Angeles on a two-game win streak after taking out both Atlanta and Denver, and their defense was the catalyst behind both victories. The Hawks and Nuggets were held to less than a point per possession and that effort will need to be replicated here against a Clippers team putting up 112.4 points every 100 possessions on offense. Los Angeles has continued its success in the halfcourt from last season, and is averaging 101.6 points per 100 plays through three games despite their 1-2 SU record. The Clippers will not have Marcus Morris in the lineup tonight, but their personnel should be enough to exploit the Cavaliers’ 19th-ranked halfcourt defense (94.7). The market jumped on the opening total of 217, as did I, and it is up to 219.5 in some spots. Given the move it is not a play I can recommend now, but should it make its way back to 217 that would be a play worth making by my book. 

Best Bet Summary

Kings + 8.5

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