NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 5/10

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, May 8th

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-3.5, 210)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

The Miami Heat have some issues to figure out on offense if they want to stop this skid and take a critical 3-2 series lead tonight. The Heat averaged just 100.5 points per 100 possessions in the two games at Philadelphia while shooting 22.2% from beyond the arc, and as those struggles coincide with the series hitting the road it also happens to coincide the return of Joel Embiid as well. Embiid changes everything for Philadelphia defensively, and now the issues Miami has had in halfcourt settings are being exacerbated by his presence. The 76ers are going to be tough to score on if Embiid is on the floor, so the onus is on their offense to continue the efficient scoring it found at home. 

In two games at the Wells Fargo Center the offense for Philadelphia put up 117.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and shot 49.2% from beyond the arc. That sort of efficiency from 3-point range might not appear in South Beach, but the 76ers were able to generate good looks for themselves in those first two games. With Embiid on the trip now the ability to get open looks from the perimeter should continue to manifest, but will the likes of Danny Green, Tyrese Maxey and James Harden be able to capitalize? If they can then the Heat are going to be in trouble.

The betting market here opened Miami -3.5 but we have since seen this drop to -3 at most shops. While a half-point might not seem significant, it is. Homecourt is worth those three points, so the market pushing this off the 3.5 line tells us that bettors believe these two teams to be equal at the very least and I would agree with that assessment. The total has moved off 210 to 209.5 but I lean to the Over here. The shots have been there for both teams and that culminated in Sunday’s game going Over a total of 208 and I would expect a better offensive showing yet again today.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 214.5)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

Much like Miami, Phoenix needs to find its offensive swagger once again after a dismal showing in Dallas in which they averaged 106.2 points per 100 possessions while shooting 31.7% on all mid-range attempts and 35.3% on long 2-point attempts. Those shots are the backbone of this offense, and bettors saw how poorly this can go for the Suns if they are not going down. Phoenix also needs to take care of the ball. Over the course of the last three games the Suns have turned the ball over on 17.2% of their offensive possessions, and Dallas has made them pay by averaging 1.385 points per play through transition offensive off live steals. If Phoenix can clean those aspects of their game up then they can certainly bounce back here, but those are hardly the only problems for the top seed in the NBA.

In this series Dallas is averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions and shooting 41.0% on 3-point attempts. The Mavericks are killing the Suns with dribble-penetration, averaging 22.0 wide-open 3-point attempts per game while shooting 45.5% on those attempts and hitting 50.0% of their corner 3-pointers. This is not just a product of playing at home either, as they took 39 uncontested 3-point attempts in Phoenix in Games 1 and 2 according to the NBA tracking data. Luka Doncic has been willing to post-up the likes of Mikal Bridges and Chris Paul which has drawn help defenders and opened the floor for the Mavericks’ shooters and unless Dallas starts to miss shots those opportunities are going to be there once again.

This number is back to where it was for the first two games of the series after bettors were bamboozled Sunday by supporting the Suns at the window in an overwhelming fashion. Personally, I believe the Mavericks to be the side here as I made this number just over 4.5 as opposed to the -5.5 or -6 that are on the board right now. However, with futures on both teams I do not feel the need to get involved. I will once again say that whichever side you back tonight it does seem to correlate to the total. Dallas wants this to be a low-scoring grind while Phoenix wants this to be a high-scoring affair.

Best Bet Summary

None

Season Record: 94-75-2

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