NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/26

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, April 25th

*Lines are opening numbers

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-7, 218)

Game 5: Heat lead 3-1

Through four games Atlanta has no answer for the hounding defense of Miami. The Hawks have averaged just 102.5 points per 100 possessions as well as 92.6 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt while losing the three games they have all by double-digits. Trae Young has had difficulty working his own game and comes into Game 5 averaging 16.5 points on 32.1% shooting from the floor while committing 6 turnovers per game. Outside of the second and fourth quarters of Game 3 this offense has been lifeless, and it is hard to make a case for it to find its spark on the road in a potential closeout game. The betting market has not adjusted its perception of Miami despite the success and the current line of -6.5 is off from the first two games of the series closed, but that is likely due to the absence of Kyle Lowry more than the market stubbornly believing in Atlanta to some degree. Keep your eye on the injury report today as well, because there are some important names on it. Miami has PJ Tucker listed as questionable which would mean two of their starting five missing this game if he cannot go. Meanwhile, Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable to play for Atlanta. Yet this line is creeping toward the direction of the underdog here.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (-7, 232.5)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

The plan for me heading into this series was to back Minnesota in every game until the market made an adjustment on the power rating on Memphis. Through four games the Timberwolves are 2-2 ATS with one of those losses coming in a game in which they led by 21 points twice. To an extent I feel that I had the right approach, but the angle has not been profitable and now the market has started to make its adjustment, as this line is down to -6 and one shop even has 5.5 as of this morning. That adjustment will have me on the sidelines until the market pushes this back up, or until the game begins and I can find a better angle in-game. Personally, I made this number just over 4.5 in favor of Memphis so the line does show some value, but I want more because there are some things that have bothered me about Minnesota’s performance. The Timberwolves have only averaged 107.3 points per 100 possessions through four games of this series and Karl-Anthony Towns has been wildly inconsistent with his performances. In the games he’s scored over 20 points they are 2-0 SU and ATS, but the other two games he put up a combined 23 points, committed 10 fouls and 9 turnovers in ugly losses. Which version of him shows up? That could be reliant on how this game is called and what happens to Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies’ best defender has been integral to their success, but only in his time on the floor. When he's on the floor Minnesota has shot 38% overall and 35% from deep. The problem is that Jackson is averaging 5.0 fouls per game and even fouled out of the Game 4 loss in Minnesota. A friendlier whistle for Memphis would keep him on the floor and would allow the Grizzlies to keep their best defensive units out for more time, but so far that has not been the case. 

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-6.5, 215.5)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

A return home might be just what the doctor ordered for the Phoenix Suns. Homecourt has not been worth much in the postseason, but there is a general thought that role players perform better in their own arena and that is what Phoenix desperately needs. Many are making a big deal of Chris Paul’s stat line from the loss Sunday – 4 points on 2-of-8 shooting – but what has killed the Suns is their inability to operate without Paul on the floor. Phoenix was outscored by 11 points in Games 3 and 4 when Paul was not on the floor. Cameron Payne has decided to regress to the guy that was available as a free agent before the 2020 bubble, scoring 11 points on a combined 4-of-15 shooting from the floor in the two road games. There is little ball-handling and creation without Paul and that is a problem that is not going away anytime soon.  Phoenix needs more from the role players and they need to find a way to deal with these smaller lineups with Larry Nance Jr. at center. Nance was + 12 in the two games at home and those athletic lineups with him as the lone big was a problem for Phoenix. A better performance from players like Payne can help ease that burden, but the Suns’ defense has had trouble containing those units. When Nance is the lone big with Devonte Graham, Brandon Ingram, Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy the Pelicans have a + 26.2 net rating. Replace Graham and Marshall for CJ McCollum and Herb Jones and that net rating is + 75.4 in 10 minutes. The sample sizes are small, but there is enough to consider this a problem for Phoenix and to play against them here at home with an inflated number.

Play: Pelicans (+ 6.5)

Best Bet Summary

Pelicans (+ 6.5)

Season Record: 91-69-2

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