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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 4/19


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, April 19th

*Lines are opening numbers

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5, 242)

Game 2: Timberwolves lead 1-0

I’m going back to the well here in this series. The betting market is too high on Memphis from power rating standpoint, and I will continue to play this angle until and adjustment is made, or the Grizzlies prove me wrong.

The gap between these two is not as wide as the market is saying it is, and Memphis has some questions to answer on the defensive end of the floor. Karl-Anthony Towns proved to be a matchup problem for them, scoring 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting from the floor. Anthony Edwards was a problem in every facet of the game, scoring 36 points on 12-of-23 shooting while hitting 3-of-4 attempts in the restricted area and 4-of-6 in the paint. Memphis usually employs a drop coverage scheme on defense, but in Game 1 they pressured ball screens often. It allowed Towns to get Morant on him multiple times and opened the floor for guys like Edwards.

The Grizzlies will likely change that strategy tonight, but it opens the door then for D’Angelo Russell who carved that defense up in the regular season for 31.0 points per game. Do not get it twisted: Memphis is a very good team. They destroyed Minnesota in transition in Game 1 by adding 4.2 points per 100 possessions and averaging 1.231 points per play in the break, but the play here is all about the number. This should be a number much closer to 4.5 as opposed to the -7 that is up across the board. Give me the underdog once more tonight.

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