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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/29


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, March 28th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 227)

Philadelphia’s poor showing in the second half of their loss to Phoenix dropped them to 7-4 SU/3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games with Joel Embiid and James Harden on the floor together. They are clearly getting it done when it comes to outright victories, but it’s safe to say this market has wildly overvalued how good this team is. Over the course of these 11 games they’re only + 0.7 per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes with an offensive rating of 114.2, according to Cleaning The Glass. The backup center position has been a disaster and when Harden is on the floor without Embiid they have a -3.9 net rating and opponents average 122.3 points per 100 possessions. It seems that this matchup is going to be a poor one for the 76ers. Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable to play tonight and the 76ers have no real option for him defensively. Milwaukee’s ability to get up the court in transition is going to be a problem for a team that comes in 27th in transition defense this season. The betting market has moved toward the Bucks here and not only do I completely agree with the move, but I believe there is still value in the underdog here as I make Milwaukee the slight favorite.

Play: Bucks (+ 1.5)

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