Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.
All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.
Market Report for Monday, March 28th
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 227)
Philadelphia’s poor showing in the second half of their loss to Phoenix dropped them to 7-4 SU/3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games with Joel Embiid and James Harden on the floor together. They are clearly getting it done when it comes to outright victories, but it’s safe to say this market has wildly overvalued how good this team is. Over the course of these 11 games they’re only + 0.7 per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes with an offensive rating of 114.2, according to Cleaning The Glass. The backup center position has been a disaster and when Harden is on the floor without Embiid they have a -3.9 net rating and opponents average 122.3 points per 100 possessions. It seems that this matchup is going to be a poor one for the 76ers. Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable to play tonight and the 76ers have no real option for him defensively. Milwaukee’s ability to get up the court in transition is going to be a problem for a team that comes in 27th in transition defense this season. The betting market has moved toward the Bucks here and not only do I completely agree with the move, but I believe there is still value in the underdog here as I make Milwaukee the slight favorite.
Play: Bucks (+ 1.5)
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-1, 217)
Everything is pointing toward Paul George making his return from an elbow injury that has kept him sidelined since Dec. 22 which would be a boon for a Clippers team that comes in 0-5 SU and ATS in the last five games. It would be foolhardy to believe that George comes in with the form that had him looking like a potential MVP candidate early this season, but they do face a team that is leaking oil right now. Utah is 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games and 4-11 ATS in the month of March. Their defense has allowed 113.5 points per 100 possessions during this slide despite Rudy Gobert playing in every game but two, but the betting market has refused to acknowledge this team’s flaws. The line has now flipped to Jazz -1 on the road which is not entirely surprising given the respect the bettors have for this team. This is a wildly important contest for two teams that are not in betting form, but I think I’d rather be sitting at home with a Clippers ticket tonight.
*Chicago Bulls (-3, 226) at Washington Wizards
How much more can we harp on this slide for the Chicago Bulls? The team is 4-11 SU/3-12 ATS in their last 15 games with a -7.5 net rating. Their defense has struggled – opponents have averaged 117.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes – but it’s the offense that has surprisingly struggled during this slide. Chicago is 28th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency during this 14-game stretch (109.6)! Are we really laying points on the road with this team? Washington has won and covered its last two games, and it is 4-2 ATS in its last six games. Regardless of your feelings for the Wizards there is no universe where bettors should be laying it with Chicago on the road.
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets (-12.5, 229.5)
Detroit did it again on Sunday, covering in a 104-102 loss to New York on Sunday to improve to 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games. It’s probably just smart to stick with the streak until it completely falls apart, but a matchup against an elite offensive team like this makes me worried. In the first half of their game against the Knicks they allowed 1.204 points per possession and trailed by 12 at halftime. Their defense is not going to be able to hold Brooklyn to 0.978 per possession if they fall behind. The Nets also have some real motivation going forward as they look to avoid the second half of the play-in bracket.
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks (-11, 220)
Anthony Davis was upgraded to doubtful, but LeBron James carries the same designation due to that ugly ankle injury he suffered in their loss to New Orleans on Sunday. Los Angeles has been covering with more consistency lately, putting up a 3-2 ATS record over the course of their previous three games, but the blown lead and James injury give me pause here. Dallas smells blood in the water as they trail Golden State by just 1.5 games for the third seed in the Western Conference and should be motivated to get this game in their pocket tonight.
Best Bets Summary
Bucks (+ 1.5)
Season Record: 76-63-2