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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/22


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 22nd

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 226) at New York Knicks

Atlanta enters this game on a 1-8 ATS slide and in the month of March they are 2-9 ATS in 11 games. The betting market’s obsession with this team has been wild, and it is happening again here today against New York. There is no discernible difference between these two teams. The Hawks are 16th on the season in net rating (+ 0.6) and the Knicks are 18th (-0.6). Atlanta has a massive edge on offense, averaging 115.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes compared to the 110.2 that New York puts up, but the Knicks are the much better defensive ranking 12th in defensive efficiency compared to 26th for the Hawks. John Collins is still out for Atlanta and Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable to play. Meanwhile, the Knickerbockers got Quentin Grimes back from injury the other day and only Cam Reddish is a name of note on the injury report. New York is also in much better form, posting a 7-2 ATS record over its last nine games, showing a clear undervaluing by the betting market. I power rate these teams as nearly identical, with a slight edge toward Atlanta. This number is telling bettors that the Hawks are 3.5 points better on a neutral and 5.5 points better at home. It’s time to realize this version of Atlanta is not the one from last season.

Play: Knicks (+ 1.5)

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