NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/22


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 22nd

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 226) at New York Knicks

Atlanta enters this game on a 1-8 ATS slide and in the month of March they are 2-9 ATS in 11 games. The betting market’s obsession with this team has been wild, and it is happening again here today against New York. There is no discernible difference between these two teams. The Hawks are 16th on the season in net rating (+ 0.6) and the Knicks are 18th (-0.6). Atlanta has a massive edge on offense, averaging 115.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes compared to the 110.2 that New York puts up, but the Knicks are the much better defensive ranking 12th in defensive efficiency compared to 26th for the Hawks. John Collins is still out for Atlanta and Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable to play. Meanwhile, the Knickerbockers got Quentin Grimes back from injury the other day and only Cam Reddish is a name of note on the injury report. New York is also in much better form, posting a 7-2 ATS record over its last nine games, showing a clear undervaluing by the betting market. I power rate these teams as nearly identical, with a slight edge toward Atlanta. This number is telling bettors that the Hawks are 3.5 points better on a neutral and 5.5 points better at home. It’s time to realize this version of Atlanta is not the one from last season.

Play: Knicks (+ 1.5)

Best Games

*Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, 231)

Chicago got off the schneid last night with a win over Toronto that broke them out of a 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS losing streak. Now, they have to attempt to string together consecutive wins on the second leg of a back-to-back against a team which they have not had much success against. Milwaukee is 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS against them this season with a + 4.5 net rating. That is not a figure worth writing home about, but the Bucks have been able to limit the Bulls to 102.5 points per 100 possessions through those two contests which is a fantastic defensive rating. Will Chicago be able to figure this defense out a third time around? Milwaukee is not fully healthy either, as Khris Middleton is going to miss this contest with a wrist injury. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo is back in the lineup and the Bulls, like many teams, do not have the personnel to match him. In two games against Chicago the Greek Freak has scored 64 points on 51.1% shooting from the floor with 28 total rebounds. Patrick Williams is theoretically the piece to defend Antetokounmpo, but he barely made his return last night and only played 19 minutes. The line has been bumped up to -7 which is somewhat strong given how inconsistent Milwaukee can be but there is no denying the matchup advantages the Bucks have with Giannis on the court.

The Others

Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets (-8, 220.5)

The Los Angeles Clippers’ offense has hit a valley once again, and as a result the team is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games. Three days ago they were smoked by Utah and must now find a way to contain Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets which come in on their own 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS slump. The issues behind Denver’s struggles are squarely on its defense which has allowed 117.5 points per 100 possessions during this eight-game stretch. Given how poorly this team has performed of late it is not surprising to see the betting market move in the direction of the underdog here, pushing this down to as low as 6.5 at a few shops. It is certainly plausible the Clippers come in and take advantage of this poor defense but given the 105.9 offensive rating the team has posted during this three-game losing streak I would be uneasy in backing Los Angeles personally. 

Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 215) at Orlando Magic

Golden State took a tough loss to San Antonio on Sunday in their first game since losing Steph Curry to injury, but there were some positive signs in the negative result. The Warriors put up 1.149 points per possession against a subpar defense, which means the team should be able to find success tonight against a defense that has allowed 113.1 points per 100 possessions. Still, an 8.5-point spread seems strong for a team missing Curry and the market has responded accordingly, pushing this line down to 7.5 at every shop on the screen. Orlando has a good 7-2 ATS stretch recently but comes in 0-3 ATS in its last three games, two of which were absolute slaughters at the hands of Brooklyn and Detroit. If you’re sweating this game out tonight you are braver than I am.

Best Bets Summary

Knicks (+ 1.5)

Season Record: 74-60-2

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