NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 3/15


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, March 15th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Game

Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 226) at New Orleans Pelicans

Brandon Ingram is still sidelined with a hamstring injury and CJ McCollum is questionable to play for New Orleans, which means that their incredible new lineup will have to wait to be whole once more. The Pelicans took care of business against the Rockets on Sunday, but it was apparent in the three games prior that this is a different team when not whole. The three games in which Ingram did not play were ugly. New Orleans was 0-3 SU and ATS, posted a -15.0 net rating and their defense gave up 125.7 points per 100 possessions. That new lineup is still very flawed defensively, but they can at least match opponents with an otherworldly output on offense. When even one member is not available to play the results can get lopsided. It’s why the market is so high on Phoenix tonight. The Suns smacked around the Lakers on Sunday night for their third win in four games, showing an ability to take advantage of lesser teams. Comments from Anthony Davis might have made that game more personal for Phoenix, but the fact remains that New Orleans is up against it here. Had they been fully healthy the play would be the home team, but the performances in those three games without Ingram gets me off that side quickly.

The Others

Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5, 233.5) at Indiana Pacers

Over the course of the 21 games the Indiana Pacers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They’ve allowed 119.1 points per 100 possessions during this span and as a result the games they play in are 16-5 to the Over. Against one of the fastest and most efficient offenses in the league that trend should likely continue, and its why we see this total as high as 233.5 at most shops. It’s also why Indiana is 8-12-1 ATS in those 21 contests. Most would think that the game going Over and the Pacers failing to cover is likely the result tonight against Memphis, but the Grizzlies are short-handed tonight with Ja Morant considered doubtful with a back injury. Indiana has its own injury issues though, with four players considered questionable to play with various ailment. If the Pacers have Malcolm Brogdon and Chris Duarte on the floor tonight they could be considered as a play tonight against the Grizzlies, but until their status is clear this one is untouchable. 

Brooklyn Nets (-9.5, 231) at Orlando Magic

The Brooklyn Nets are going to be a potential play every time they hit the road, but in these situations against poorly power rated teams the pill might be too large to swallow. Brooklyn is 6-0-2 ATS in its last eight road games, and since Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were reunited they have averaged 124.9 points per 100 possessions with a + 10.8 net rating. All those figures will be trouble for the lowly Magic which are 11-20-1 ATS at home this season. Seth Curry is questionable to play tonight for Brooklyn so that certainly cuts into their offensive production, but a fully engaged pairing of Durant and Irving can name the score here. Do they want to though?

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-13.5, 215.5)

If you read this column you know the deal. Detroit is now 10-0-1 ATS in its last 11 games, but some troubling fourth quarters have cost the young Pistons some victories recently. Now, they must travel to South Beach to face a healthy Miami team that, if fully engaged on defense, will be able to put the clamps on the young duo of Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey. Given how well the Pistons have played recently, and how undervalued they have been, it’s not surprising to see some market support here but this line does not make sense. The other night Detroit was in Boston catching 14 points against the Celtics and now they are catching 12.5 in Miami? Are the Heat really 1.5 points worse than the Boston Celtics? I would not say that, so there does seem to be some line value here with the favorite.

Best Bets Summary


Season Record: 72-59-2

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