NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/4

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, January 4th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors (-5.5, 222.5)

After going through most of December on a heater the Spurs have fallen on some hard times. They enter this contest 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in their previous three contests, and now COVID and injury are starting to alter the shape of this roster. Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott and three others will miss this game due to injury or COVID which is a massive blow for an offense that was fourth in efficiency (115.5) last month. That lack of personnel is why the now whole Toronto Raptors are up to -6 at a few shops this morning. Toronto finally has its starting five back together for multiple games, and the return are solid. The Raptors are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in their last three games, and they enter on a longer 7-4 SU/9-2 ATS streak that started at the beginning of last month. Toronto’s regular starting lineup has been tremendous, posting a + 9.7 net rating by limiting opponents to 102.7 points per 100 possessions. It seems likely Toronto would be able to contain San Antonio, which has a 105.1 offensive rating in the possessions without Murray and McDermott on the floor. The total has been bumped up to 223 at a few shops, and this leads to my working theory of Raptors home games. Remember, only as much as 1,000 fans are allowed in building now and Toronto made the decision to not sell tickets at all and only allow family and friends in the building. It has led to a similar environment as the bubble and beginning of last season and both games went over the total by an average of 14.5 points. The friendly site lines could lead to some higher scoring affairs, through two games that has been the case. Let’s test theory ourselves and play this Over.

Play: OVER 222.5

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