NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 12/7


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, December 7th

It is the usual short card on a Tuesday, as we only get three games tonight.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 215.5) at Dallas Mavericks

This one is all about the injury report, as Luka Doncic is questionable to play due to ankle and thumb injuries. Doncic did not play this past weekend against Memphis, dropping Dallas to 0-4 SU and ATS in the games that he has missed this season. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play tonight after he missed the same game with knee soreness, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is questionable as well. Brooklyn comes in off a loss to Chicago, dropping the team to 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games. The Nets are 8-14-1 ATS on the season which is the second-worst cover rate (36.4%) on the season, ahead of only the Lakers, but this could be a buy-low opportunity for them. Dallas comes into tonight giving up 110.2 points per 100 possessions on defense with most of that damage coming from the perimeter. Opponents have shot 37.0% on all 3-point attempts against the Mavericks and 45.5% from the corners. The Nets shoot 37.7% overall and 39.6% from the corner, both marks good enough for 10th or better in the league. Even if Doncic is available tonight, it might not be the best thing for Dallas. With Doncic on the floor the Mavericks are outscored by 5.4 points every 100 possessions and their defense gives up 113.6 points per 100 possessions. Dallas is just a flawed team and those flaws have finally started to show. They are 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS over the last nine games overall with a -3.2 net rating. Despite the poor ATS record the Nets are still a decent team that is sixth in net rating on the season. The last game Brooklyn covered was against Boston, a game that was included in this column. Let’s take another shot with the Nets tonight.

Play: Nets (-2.5)

New York Knicks (-2.5, 212.5) at *San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is finally playing up to its level, and as a result it comes into tonight on a 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS run after covering last night in Phoenix. The key to this turnaround has been a defense that has allowed 99.6 points per 100 possessions and 32.3% from the perimeter. The Spurs are now 11th in defensive efficiency on the season (107.3) and they face a Knicks team that has struggled to find its identity on offense for the past month. Since Nov. 8 New York is 23rd in non-garbage time offensive efficiency, averaging 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Since making the lineup change their efficiency on that end of the floor has been better (114.9), but that is over the course of just three games and in their last contest they only managed 1.086 per possession. Outside of the statistical shortcomings, this Knicks team is just slightly overvalued by the betting market. Since the beginning of November they are 6-11 ATS with a -3.3 net rating, a mark that is 1.9 points worse than their opponent tonight. That is not the team that I want to be in the business of laying points on the road with.

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5, 217)

It seems heading west has done the Boston Celtics some good. Through two games of this west coast trip the Celtics are 2-0 ATS and they are coming off a blowout victory of the short-handed Trail Blazers on Saturday. Boston will also be slightly healthier tonight, as both Al Horford and Romeo Langford return to the rotation after missing the win over Portland. Jaylen Brown is questionable to play, but even if he does play it is hard to say he will be effective as this hamstring injury has lingered for a while. Injury situation aside, Boston has been the most consistent of late between these two franchises, coming into tonight 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four games. Los Angeles has yet to find that consistency. After taking three of four from the likes of Sacramento, Detroit and Indiana the Lakers took a loss to the Clippers on Friday night. Their defense gave up 1.293 points per possession and 47.1% from deep and they fell to 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games. Carmelo Anthony is questionable to play with an illness as well, and that would be a massive blow for Los Angeles. The team has a + 1.4 net rating with him on the floor and they put up 113.5 points per 100 possessions on offense in those minutes. When he is off the floor they are outscored by 9.7 points and have a 98.7 offensive rating. Boston seems like the side to back tonight, but I want to see what the market does here.

Best Bets Summary

Nets (-2.5)

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