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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/25


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, January 25th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards (-4, 218.5)

Washington comes in on an 0-3 SU and ATS slide, but the poor play stretches well beyond that short stint. Since Jan. 5 the Wizards are 4-6 SU/1-9 ATS with a dead-even net rating and a 113.2 defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes. The problem seems to be a market that has overvalued Washington. In seven of those 10 games they closed as a favorite, laying an average of 5.0 points per contest, and they failed to cover each. Los Angeles is on an eight-game road trip and last played Sunday in New York. The loss to the Knicks snapped a 3-0 ATS run for the Clippers and for the third time in four games the defense failed to show up, as New York put up a 115.8 offensive rating and shot 45.7% from beyond the arc. Los Angeles is a perimeter-oriented offense that is reliant on 3-point shots falling to have success. It’s unlikely the Clippers, which rank 28th in frequency of attempts at the rim, are going to challenge the league’s second-worst rim defense (68.4%). On the other end, Washington must find success inside against the fifth-best rim defense (62.1% allowed), and it might. Each of the Clippers’ last four opponents have been getting to the rim, taking an average of 32 attempts per game within four feet. If Los Angeles is going to allow Washington a path to the basket it’s in for a rough night. The market moved a half-point in favor of the home team here, but the move of consequence is to the Under with the total down two points. These are two below average teams in terms of pace, and both can defend the other’s strength relatively well which makes sense as to why this total would get played Under.

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