NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/9


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Monday, November 8th

Over the course 1,230 games there are going to be some insane results, but nothing could prepare bettors for what transpired in Memphis last night. With 4:44 left to go in the fourth quarter the Timberwolves held a 13-point lead after a Jaden McDaniels dunk. From that point on the Grizzlies would go on a 20-4 run that gave them a 113-110 lead with 2.5 seconds left on the clock. After a foul Minnesota would have 1.1 seconds to get a 3-point shot off to force overtime and the unthinkable happened.



Minnesota would go on to be outscored 12-5 in the overtime period, failing to cover every number that was available throughout the day. I am not sure where that ranks all time, but I can tell you it is at the top of the #NothingButAgony rankings for this season. 

Meanwhile, the loss drops the Timberwolves to 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games and a 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. Over the course of this current five-game slide Minnesota owns a -10.9 net rating overall, but the most alarming issue for this team is its inability to close out games. They rank last in fourth quarter net rating this season at -29.3 which is 9.3 points worse than the team ahead of them. Over the last five games that net rating in the fourth quarter is -44.0 according to Chris Finch needs to do some soul searching here because his team is woefully unprepared in fourth quarters this season, and there are already rumblings of discord.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 9th

College basketball tips-off tonight so the NBA is taking a backseat tonight with only three games on the board.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, 222.5) at *Philadelphia 76ers

Milwaukee is still missing Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton, but given the personnel situation for Philadelphia the Bucks still find themselves as solid road favorites today. Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle are all in the COVID protocol and this 76ers team is lacking in almost every category. On top of that, they are playing the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Knicks on Monday. Philadelphia managed 1.032 points per possession last night against New York in a valiant effort, but the team can only deal with so much personnel loss. That is not to say run out and bet the Bucks as this number has all of these absences heavily baked into the number. Milwaukee still has its own issues anyway. They are currently stuck in an 0-2 SU and ATS slide, and the team is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six. The Bucks’ offense has struggled when Giannis Antetokounmpo is not on the floor, posting a -27.4 net rating and averaging 95.0 points per 100 possessions. It is not surprising to see the market head down on the total which is now 220.5 at most shops.

*Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz (-7.5, 222)

Atlanta put up a fight last night but ultimately fell to 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. The betting market underestimated Golden State in that game due to it playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but bettors will find no such discount on the home team here. The wheels have fallen off defensively for the Hawks which rank 30th in defensive efficiency over this four-game slide (118.8). However, not everything is firing on all cylinders for Utah this season. The team is 1-3 ATS in its last four games and very quietly their bench is off to a disappointing start. In the possessions without Donovan Mitchell the Jazz have been outscored by 0.6 points per 100 possessions and their offensive rating goes from 119.0 with Mitchell on to 107.4 with Mitchell off. Throw in Jordan Clarkson at point and take Mike Conley off the floor as well as Mitchell and that net rating drops to -4.8 and the offensive rating plummets to 101.6 according to Cleaning The Glass. Utah has been bet up to 8.5 as of this morning and barring an addition to the injury report Atlanta might be in a buy low spot here.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 222.5)

For the third time this season these two teams will meet and homecourt has held serve through two games in a big way. The losing team has fallen by an average of 19.5 points in this series so far, and both teams enter is solid form. Portland has won two straight, but both contests were home against Indiana and the other Los Angeles franchise. The Trail Blazers needed a late rally to upend the Pacers on Friday night before dealing with the reeling Lakers on Saturday. It is the Clippers who hold the best form of the two franchises tonight. Los Angeles comes in on a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS run in which it has a + 11.7 net rating while holding opponents to 98.0 points per 100 possessions. As of this morning, Los Angeles is second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (101.3) and seventh in non-garbage time net rating (+ 4.7). On paper not much seperates these two teams, but the Trail Blazers will need show a semblance of competence on the road before they are trusted by bettors. In four road games this season Portland is 0-4 SU and ATS with a -13.8 net rating and defense that gives up 115.3 points per 100 possessions. I have been higher on the Clippers than most and their defensive play is legitimate this season. Bettors should expect this run for Los Angeles to continue tonight. 

Play: Clippers (-3)

Best Bet Summary

Clippers (-3)

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Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.