NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/18


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, January 18th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 212.5) at *New York Knicks

The loss to Charlotte yesterday snapped a 3-0 SU and ATS run for New York, but the team is still 10-6 SU and ATS in its last 16 games with + 3.1 net rating and playing some decent basketball. However, the Knicks’ 96.3 offensive rating in non-garbage time yesterday is a troubling trend which has persisted even through this 16-game stretch. Despite the positive net rating New York has averaged just 110.7 points per 100 possessions on offense which is the 21st ranked offense over that span. One has to wonder how this offense fares tonight against Minnesota which has been playing solid defensive basketball over the last month. Over the last 17 games the Timberwolves are 10th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, allowing just 109.2 points per 100 possessions. Minnesota has forced a turnover on 16.7% of opponent possessions, and they turn those turnovers into transition opportunities. Limiting turnovers must be an emphasis for the Knicks tonight, but it’s been a problem recently for the team. They committed a turnover on 16.9% of their offensive plays last night, and during this 16-game stretch their turnover rate of 13.8% is 17th in the league. The initial move here has been toward the road team, and its understandable. It seems that Kemba Walker is going to miss yet another contest and New York has been extremely limited on offense. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves continue to deliver recently and ride a 12-5 ATS run into this affair. This number should not get higher than 3.5 at the most and those should disappear quick if they appear.

Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors (-14.5, 215.5)

January has been an odd month for the Detroit Pistons. The team is 5-4 SU and ATS in nine games with a -9.6 net rating. The average margin of defeat in their four losses is a staggering 33.0 points, but three of their five wins have come by nine or more points. Which team is showing up tonight against Golden State? The Warriors continue to put forth uneven efforts and after the most recent loss to Minnesota they are 4-5 SU/3-6 ATS in the month of January and 13-10 SU/9-14 ATS in its last 23 games. Golden State’s defense continues to deliver, as they rank fifth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency over these 23 contests, but their offense has been terrible. Over that same span the Warriors are 26th in offensive efficiency (108.3), and this coincides with what is now a troubling slump for Steph Curry. In his last 20 games Curry is shooting 37.7% from the floor and 34.5% from beyond the arc! Is this really the team one should lay 14.5 points with? The betting market does not mind, as this line is up to -15 at a few shops, but I would have some real hesitancy. Draymond Green is out for the foreseeable future and Gary Payton is questionable to play. The market has clearly been too high on the Warriors for over a month and this seems to be another one of those instances.

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